Tidbits, Brazil, Russia, PMI, Crop Progress, ENSO, Export Inspections 10/6/26
Tidbits
Yield reports from Stan just north of Central Illinois:
“Yield reports (both from neighbors and my fields): Corn yield is about 10-12% lower than last year. Fields without pattern tile or where water runs across vary even more. Bean yields are about even with last year, or maybe just a tad lower. But again, wide variation for those without good drainage; too much water at times for both corn and beans, and then too hot and dry for too long for much of July into early August. Around here, I’d guess corn is about 10% harvested; beans are likely 15% to 20%. With the forecast for this week, that will change a ton over the next 6 days. There will not be any record yields on most fields in Woodford or Tazewell Counties.”
Crop Progress:
Corn and soybean harvest was below the average market expectations. While that is not a problem this early in the harvest season given the weather this week, be advised that is bearish because it means there are more bushels still in the field than the market thought had already found a home for the winter. Just for the record, when harvest is ahead of what the market expected, that is bullish because the market has already found a home for more bushels than the trade expected and there are fewer bushels in the field needing to find a home.
Karen Braun comments:
“U.S. corn and soybean harvests have slipped behind the five-year average pace after a wet finish to September. Corn conditions fell below expectations and winter wheat planting progress matched the lowest estimate. However, cotton harvest is slightly ahead of avg at 23% done.”
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