BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 50,116, +1,223 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $63.5, -2.24. Dollar Index  settled at 97.68, +0.53. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,923, -225. Corn March futures settled at $4.30¼, +2¢ for the w

February S&D Estimates The USDA will release the S&D report on February 10 at 11 AM Central Time. Market estimates U.S. soybean and wheat carryover to decrease about 1%, corn carryover is anticipated to stay unchanged. Note: "Ending Stocks" aka "Carryover." World carryover is seen a bit higher for corn and beans. Brazilian crops estimates may increase while decreasing for Argentina. Estimates compiled by DTN: Q&A: Put Options and Risk Management From a client in Iowa: "Thanks

Tidbits Beef: President Donald Trump signed an executive order Friday aimed at making beef more affordable for Americans by increasing the allowable imports of lean beef trimmings from Argentina.  The executive order, titled Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumer, temporarily increases the import quota quantity of lean beef trimmings under the U.S. tariff-rate quota by 80,000 metric tons, allocating the additional volume entirely to Argentina. U.S. Basis: GraInfor

Tidbits Next Tuesday, February 10, the USDA will release its S&D (WASDE) report. Reuters released its survey of analysts ahead of the report, showing an average 2025/26 carryout estimates: Corn - 2.227 billion bushels (same as in January S&D) Soybean - 347 million bushel (350 mil in January) Wheat - 918 million bushels (926 mil in January) Yesterday’s soybean trade volume reached roughly 930,000 contracts, marking a new all‑time record. U.S. net farm income would fall 0.7% to

Tidbits China  is considering buying more U.S.-farmed soybeans , President Donald Trump said after what he called "very positive" talks with President Xi Jinping yesterday. In a goodwill gesture two months before Trump's expected visit to Beijing, Trump said Xi would consider hiking soybean purchases from the United States to 20 million metric tons in the current season, up from 12 million mts previously. March soybean futures rallied to $11.15 yesterday, but settled at $10.9

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, cha

Tidbits Biofuels consultant and VP of Montana Renewables, Corey Lavinsky, reported progress yesterday on 45Z: “The U.S. Treasury Department expects a 45Z specific version of USDA’s Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator to be used to calculate carbon intensity in the 45ZCF-GREET model. Unfortunately, the calculator isn't ready yet. The public hearing date for 45Z isn't until May 28, 2026, so this will be a long process. The proposed regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuel Productio

Tidbits India & Oils: President Trump announced yesterday the U.S. and India have reached a trade agreement and will begin lowering tariffs on each other’s goods immediately. The U.S. will cut its reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 18% and India will “move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers against the United States to zero.” Trump wrote on Truth Social that India also committed to buy American goods “at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 billi

What is wrong with the way we market ag commodities in this country? When grain is contracted for deferred delivery at a fixed price, the grain elevator hedges those bushels in the futures market. That enables them to pay the farmer the contracted price when he delivers the grain later.   For example, in June you execute a December corn HTA (or forward contract) at $4.40 on 50,000 bushels. When you deliver the corn in October, December corn is $3.60. The elevator sells your c

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 48,892, -206 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $65.74, +4.46. Dollar Index  settled at 97.15, -0.31. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 2,148, +386. Corn March futures settled at $4.28¼, -2¼¢ for the w

Tidbits Shutdown: The Senate voted Friday to fund most of the federal government through the end of September, coupled with a temporary, two-week funding extension for the Department of Homeland Security. Since the Senate version of government funding is different from the funding legislation the House passed, the government officially shut down this weekend. The House will be back in session tomorrow to consider the Senate version of funding and is expected to approve it.  

Tidbits President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Fed Chair Powell in May. Warsh is a lawyer and distinguished visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Warsh has said he believes the president is right to press the Fed for steep rate cuts and has criticized the central bank for underestimating the inflation-busting potential of productivity growth supercharged by artificial intelligence. He has also called for a broad overhaul, a "regim

Tidbits The government  will have a partial shutdown at midnight tonight unless the Senate can find 5 more votes to advance a House approved spending package. The Democrats said they would not support any legislation if it included funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Eight Republicans joined nearly all Democrats in voting no. One “no” vote by Senate Majority Leader John Thune was strictly a parliamentary procedural reason, to be able to request a vote to re

Tidbits Futures: March soybeans, and all three March wheat contracts made new highs for the year yesterday and March corn traded to its highest price since before the USDA S&D on 12 January, despite the dollar index being a little higher yesterday for the second day in the past 8 days. Prices were supported by higher crude oil, cold temperatures (more soybean meal and corn for feed demand, fewer farmer sales, potential winter kill on wheat), expected strong export sales today

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, cha

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 110,000 mts of old crop corn and 306,000 mts of old crop sorghum to unknown. The dollar index  has lost 3.4% in the last 6 trading days. That is supposed to be super bullish for U.S. exports, especially wheat. The storm  across the U.S. has cut electricity to millions of people in the U.S., which contributed to reducing crude oil production by 2 million barrels per day and reducing natural gas production by

Tidbits Basis:  Poet at Fairbank, Iowa weakened their corn basis by 5¢ yesterday. Corning, Iowa Poet firmed their basis 2¢. Many corn river bids were 2 to 3¢ firmer. Cargill weakened their soybean basis in Sioux City, Iowa by 5¢ to -35H, but firmed their bean basis in Sidney, Ohio by 18¢ to +10H. ADM in Des Moines, Iowa firmed their bean basis by 5¢ to -30H.   A U.S. government shutdown  is possible by the end of the week, which could impact the bridge payments expected in Fe

Tidbits Mexico  has become the largest buyer of U.S. corn. Trump is increasing pressure on Cuba to cause the communist regime to collapse. Now that Venezuela is not shipping crude to Cuba, Mexico is the largest supplier of crude oil and refined products to Cuba. Mexican President Sheinbaum has said Mexico will continue crude oil shipments to Cuba, saying they are based on long term contracts and considered international aid. However, senior Mexican government sources said the

Tidbits Canada:  President Trump yesterday afternoon said China was trying to use Canada to evade U.S. tariff. "If Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a 'Drop Off Port' for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken. If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A."    President Trump also said he will visit China in April and expects Chinese

Tidbits The U.S. Composite Purchasing Manager Index  (PMI) was reported yesterday morning by S&P Global to be 52.8; the market expected 51.9. The “composite” PMI is the manufacturing and service sector combined. A PMI above 50 means purchasing managers plan to buy more supplies for their business in the coming month than they purchased the previous month. It is a forward looking economic indicator.      Crude oil:  A few days ago, the French navy intercepted a shadow fleet ta