BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 49,504, +1,122 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $58.78, +1.45. Dollar Index  settled at 99.14, +0.71. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,688, -194. Corn March futures settled at $4.45¾, +8¼¢ for the

Tidbits Iran:  The ongoing protests in Iran escalated the past two days. The Iranian government cut internet access and telephone service in the major cities on Thursday. The demonstrations now span all 31 Iranian provinces. The protests began as a protest against an economy in freefall but soon broadened to demand the overthrow of the government. Rebels report they have complete control of two major Iranian cities. The Human Rights Activist News Agency, which tallies only vi

Tidbits Flash sale:  Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown.   The U.S. Supreme Court  did not issue a ruling yesterday on President Trump’s global tariffs.   The U.S. unemployment  rate edged down to 4.4% in December 2025, from a revised 4.5% in November, which had marked the highest level since October 2021. The reading also came in slightly below market expectations of 4.5%. The economy added 50,000 non-farm payrolls i

Tidbits Tariffs: The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to announce later this morning their decision on the legality of Trump’s tariffs. The administration faces the possibility of having to refund nearly $150 billion paid in tariffs to importers if the court declares that the sweeping duties Trump has imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal. Venezuela: The U.S. Senate voted yesterday to advance a resolution that would bar President Donald Trump

Tidbits On Monday at 11 AM Central Time, the USDA will issue its revised estimates for domestic and world Supply and Demand (S&D), the final 2025 U.S. crop production and yield numbers, the Quarterly Stocks (inventory) of commodities as of 1 December 2025, Winter Wheat and Canola seedings, and Cotton Ginnings. The January USDA reports are one of the top three major report days of every year for grain producers and users. The market action of March futures for the day of & the

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, cha

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 336,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mts for March–May shipment, the total U.S. crop purchases are now estimated at 8.5–10 million mts, up to 80% of the 12 million mts Secretary Scott Bessent said China pledged to buy by end-February. Venezuela’s Stock Market was up 17% on Monday and 50% yesterday after Nicolás

Tidbits During Friday’s session, CBOT wheat futures put in new contract lows, and then bounced back to close exactly equal to the opening prices. People who know a lot more about technical analysis than we do said this creates a “dragonfly doji” pattern on the daily price chart. Investopedia.com states, “The dragonfly doji is a Japanese candlestick pattern that signals potential market reversal and reflects investor decisions.” It is a minor signal, but yesterday’s market ac

Tidbits

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 48,382, -329 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $57.33, +0.40. Dollar Index  settled at 98.43, +0.38. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,882, +5. Corn March futures settled at $4.37½, -12½¢ for the we

Tidbits Iran's  Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed not to yield to President Trump’s threat to come to the aid of protesters, as rights groups reported a sharp rise in arrests following days of unrest sparked by soaring inflation. Khamenei said the Islamic Republic  "will not yield to the enemy"  and that rioters should be "put in their place" .   Venezuela:  After the U.S. military kidnapped Venezuela’s Dictator/President Madura, President Trump stated he will desig

Tidbits Flash sale:  Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of old crop corn to South Korea.   Crush numbers:  The USDA reported yesterday after the close the November soybean crush was 221 million bushels; the market expected 225.2 million bushels. None-the-less, the November soybeans crush was 11 million bushels (5.2%) above a year ago. The meal inventory at the end of November was 463,019 tons, just 103 tons above a year ago while the oil inventory wa

Tidbits CBOT will begin trading at 8:30 AM Central Time and close at normal time, 1:15 PM Central time. USDA is scheduled to release its November oilseed and grain crush numbers after the close. Farmer Bridge Assistance Program , Per Acre Payment Rates for 2025 acres: Barley: $20.51 Canola: $23.57 Chickpeas (Large): $26.46 Chickpeas (Small): $33.36 Corn: $44.36 Cotton: $117.35 Flax: $8.05 Lentils: $23.98 Mustard: $23.21 Oats: $81.75 Peanuts: $55.65 Peas: $19.60 Rice: $132.89

Isaac asked: "How do you know if it is ok to hedge using like Schwab or another brokerage account firm? Or do you need to use like a RJ O’Brien or StoneX  platform? Thanks"   Good Afternoon.   The brokerage firms whose primary business is trading stocks usually have futures brokerage available, but they generally look at futures traders as third class investors who have no common sense and, therefore, discourage futures trading with high "house margins" and high commissions c

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, cha

Tidbits The CBOT  ag markets will have regular hours today, but no night session tonight and will reopen Friday morning at 8:30 AM Central with a regular closing time. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop beans to China and 231,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown. AgrInvest Commodities’ Eduardo Vanin yesterday morning: “China booked a few U.S. (soybean)  cargoes yesterday. The total is close to 140 cargoes, ~80% of the 12 mil

Tidbits There was no reasonable explanation for corn, beans and wheat to be smartly lower yesterday. Crude was up more than a dollar early in the day. Corn export inspections for Christmas week were less than previous week, which is to be expected, but were 47% more than a year ago. Soybean export inspections were 54% less and wheat inspections were 11% less than a year ago. Also, the USDA announced the sale of 100,000 mts of old crop soybeans to Egypt. Grain markets will clo

Tidbits Russia-Ukraine: President Trump said he talked to President Putin about two hours yesterday morning before meeting with Ukraine’s President Zelensky yesterday afternoon at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida to discuss a plan to end the 4 year war with Russia.   The leaders confirmed that the meeting about a 20-point peace plan was productive, but added that there is more work to be done such as negotiating security guarantees and navigating the future of

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 48,711, +576 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $56.93, +0.39. Dollar Index  settled at 98.05, -0.67. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,877, -146. Corn March futures settled at $4.50, +6¼¢ for the we

Wheat & Put Options On 27 May 2022, September Soft Red Winter Wheat futures settled at $11.66 after trading to $12.85 on 17 May.    Here is the daily price chart for September 2022 CBOT wheat June through August 2022: On 27 May 2022, September Soft Red Winter Wheat futures settled at $11.66 after trading to $12.85 on 17 May.    Here is the daily price chart for September 2022 CBOT wheat June through August 2022: