Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

October S&D, EU & Brazil Corn, Exports, Farm Sentiment, Fuel & Biofuel

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 51,655, +478 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $91.66, +0.40. Dollar Index settled at 102.23, +0.31. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,917, -231. Corn December futures settled at $4.79¾, -18¢ for the week. Basis (Z =

The CBOT will trade normal hours starting this evening even though the banks and government will be closed for Columbus Day. On 5 Oct 2026, Stan sent us his comments after we had written USDA’s corn stocks number was out of line on 30 September: "I agree with your comments about “If you understand the relationship between price and carryover and carryover and basis, then you do understand why the corn situation presented by the USDA makes no sense. None-the-less, December cor

Tidbits Fuel: Trump announced at 3:04 PM Eastern Time yesterday that he had agreed on "immediate" deliveries of 300,000 mts (not gallons!) of diesel from Russia to the U.S. and the global market. And another 500,000 mts during November. Followed by more than 4 million mts of diesel over a short period of time depending on the condition of Russian refineries. Previously, such exports were under sanctions and then banned by Russia to help the domestic supply. The EU corn faced

The report was bearish corn due to yield above the highest estimate, but carryover well below 2 billion bushels It was negative soybeans and wheat 23 minutes after report: Dec corn down 29¢ Nov Soybeans down 14¢ Dec CBOT Wheat down 20¢ Dec KC Wheat down 18¢ Dec Spring Wheat down 11¢ Dec Cotton down 0.42

Tidbits S&D: Today at 11 AM Central Time, the USDA will release its October Crop Production and S&D Reports. Because of the Quarterly Stocks (inventories as of 1 September) issued on 30 September, we know what the corn and soybean carryover and carry-ins will be. What we do not know is new crop yields and the demand projections USDA will use. Basis: Some, maybe most, Western Corn Belt merchandisers weakened their basis 15 to 25¢ yesterday. The reason stated was the off-color

Tidbits Corn and wheat turned lower after midnight yesterday for no apparent reason and worked lower all through the night and day into the close. Around noon we learned there were "peacemakers" trying to get Trump, Putin and Xi (yes, the Chinese president) together to discuss a deal to open the Black Sea for grain exports. No date, no comments from big players, etc. The Black Sea: Once again, somebody asked President Putin, “If there was a chance for a peace deal,” and he s

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Prices surged in the 2nd half of the session for corn, soybean and wheat mostly because of lower U.S. crop ratings. The additional rise in soybean prices was driven by statements from President Trump regarding China's purchases of U.S. agricultural products. Reportedly, China requested offers for soybean shipments from Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Northwest (PNW) ports. Fuel: President Trump signed an executive order allowing farmers and other qualifying users to tempor

Tidbits Yield reports from Stan just north of Central Illinois: “Yield reports (both from neighbors and my fields): Corn yield is about 10-12% lower than last year. Fields without pattern tile or where water runs across vary even more. Bean yields are about even with last year, or maybe just a tad lower. But again, wide variation for those without good drainage; too much water at times for both corn and beans, and then too hot and dry for too long for much of July into early

Tidbits This week is pivotal as the corn and soybean markets shift from a mix of old and new crop fundamentals to strictly new crop fundamental factors. Each day, the weather, harvest progress, actual yields, etc., the Crop Progress this afternoon, and the Crop Production with S&D on Friday and all the estimates between now and Friday will impact prices. The crop news will have a back-drop of shifting geo-political issues that will impact decisions we all need to make about b

World Free-On-Board Grain & Oilseed Prices for October 3, 2026

Quarterly Grain Stocks, Tariffs & China, Black Sea, Crush, Food Prices, US Economy

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 51,177, -652 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $91.26, -1.18. Dollar Index settled at 101.92, +0.88. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 3,148, -278. Corn December futures settled at $4.97¾, -30½¢ for the week. Basis (Z =

Tidbits Grain Inventories: The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is the counter of everything agriculture in the USA. NASS surveyed farmers and commercial grain handlers to estimate 1 September grain and oilseed inventories. NASS put corn stocks at 2,095 million bushels. Private analysts surveyed by Reuters averaged 1,918 million, with the highest estimate at 2,005 million and the lowest at 1,843 million bushels. NASS said feed use was not nearly as much

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, USDA announced corn sales to Mexico: 173,800 mts of old crop, 22,400 mts of new crop, and 22,400 mts of the 2028 crop. Wheat: Saudi Arabia issued a tender Thursday for 535,000 mts of milling wheat with a bid deadline yesterday for delivery in Nov–Dec 2026. Results to be announced on Monday. The country issued a wheat tender on 7 September but cancelled it due to high prices. In Europe, the price of corn is higher than milling quality wheat, so

Tidbits After today, the Corn Belt will be mostly rain free for the next ten days. By the middle of next week should have a good “handle” on Corn Belt yields. Will harvest progress pressure corn and bean futures? It might pressure beans because of good yields, but we expect corn yields to be supportive. Farmers will not be selling so much next week to pressure the market, but the psychology of seeing good harvest progress will provide overhead resistance. Pre-hedging is a ter

Tidbits The corn inventory posted by USDA added 4 days’ of use to the carryout. Most analysts expect the 2026 corn yield to decline 2 bushels, which would fully offset the increased carry-in. There was no reason for soybeans to sell-off 10¢ as the carryover number was 8 million bushels less than the market expected. The wheat carryover was 23 million bushels more than expected. While that is not a friendly number, it sure does not justify wheat losing nearly as much as it did

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Today at 11 AM Central time the USDA will issue its Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and Small Grain Summary as of September 1. Historically, this is USDA’s third most significant report of the year primarily because it sets the corn and soybean carryout for old crops, which is also the carry-in for the new crop marketing year. The corn inventory on the March Stocks report was 83.55 million bushels less than the market expected, Likewise, on the June Stocks report, the c