BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Written 22 April 2022 In lesson 1, I wrote about clients who bought September wheat puts with September wheat futures right at $11.00. People were paying 60¢ per bushel for the right to sell September wheat futures at $10.00 and 20¢ for the right to sell September wheat at $9.00. Why would anybody pay so much money for the right to sell September wheat $1 and $2 below the current price? Why not just sell the September wheat futures at $11.00 and not spend $2,943.75 for the ri

Tidbits Crude Oil: Two tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were attacked within the territorial waters of Iraq last evening, causing both to catch fire in the Persian Gulf. A total of 25 crew members onboard the vessels have been evacuated so far by authorities in Iraq. Despite Donald Trump's statements, the U.S. refuses to escort civilian ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the high risk of attacks, Reuters reports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) approved yesterday

Monday's high price was about 476.0 in May Corn. Today's high of 462.0 provides some measure of resistance. 471.00 would be next, then 476.0. Above these prices we have 480.0, 488.0, and 496.5 which is the May contract high printed last February. These stated levels are marked with the horizontal red lines on the daily chart here. Because corn broke out higher from the channel, momentum should still be on the buyers side, but we will have to wait and see. Next, we examine the

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, cha

Tidbits S&D: As expected, the USDA did not make any significant changes to the U.S. balance sheets, as ending stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat remained unchanged. Corn global inventories rose nearly 3 million mts; production rose 1.7 million mts in Ukraine and 1 million mts in Brazil, while down 1 million mts in Argentina. The average U.S. Farm price for 2025/26 at $4.10 and for 2026/27 it was pegged at $4.20 in February.

The numbers were neutral for corn, wheat and beans.   CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Were the Same as Before Report May corn -5 Dec Corn -5 May beans +7 July CBOT wheat -14 July KC wheat -13 Sept Spring wheat -13

Tidbits The USDA will issue its March S&D at 11 AM Central time today. There were new contract highs in the soy complex and also in a few deferred corn futures months amid crude oil spikes. AgRural reports Brazil’s first corn harvest hit 42%, lagging the 54% seen a year earlier. Planting of Brazil's second corn crop reached 82%, compared with 92% a year earlier. While corn plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 94%, just shy of the 96% pace from a year ago. Brazilian farmers h

Tidbits Mike Alfred is a private investor, advisor, and corporate board member of several companies. He is the Founder and Managing Partner of Alpine Fox LP, a private investment partnership focused on value equities and Bitcoin. He has 338,600 followers on X, where he posted mid-day yesterday (Sunday):   "I just sailed through the Strait of Hormuz. Light wind, good visibility, saw a few other yachts. No sign of conflict. The trading lane is open for business. Oil should soft

World Free-On-Board Grain & Oilseed Prices for March 7, 2026

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 47,502, -1,476 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $91.27, +23.98. Dollar Index  settled at 98.85, +1.20. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 2,010, -130. Corn May futures settled at $4.60½, +12¢ for the

Tidbits Iran’s president issued an apology to neighboring countries to calm regional anger at Iran’s strikes on Gulf civilian targets and urged them not to join the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.   Fertilizer:  From Agrinvest and Dellagro Team: "The global fertilizer market went on alert following escalating tensions in the Middle East, which increased logistical uncertainties in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

Tidbits The price of crude oil rose by more than $10 in a single day, closing at $91.27.   The U.S. will allow Russian crude oil that has been stranded at sea to be sold to India to ease the potential supply shock to the global market. It is estimated there is 150 million barrels of Russian oil in those ships.   Treasury Secretary ​Scott Bessent yesterday ‌said the United States could remove sanctions from more ​Russian oil, a ​day after Washington issued a ⁠30-day waiver all

Tidbits Crude Oil & Fuel: Bloomberg reports that China has told their oil refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports. Japanese oil refiners are asking the government to release supplies from the strategic petroleum reserves and have also bought around 7 million barrels of U.S. crude oil for June arrival. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright said the Navy will escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz “when the time is right,” but their current focus is disarming Iran. He said

Last week, (third week in April 2022), we recommended our clients purchase September Soft Red Winter Wheat Put Options and most likely within the next two and half months, we will be recommending the purchase of December corn puts and November soybeans puts.  We will present a series of educational explanations about put options. Even though most of you do not grow wheat, you need to understand how put options work and what they can do for you. The wheat market is “ripe” for

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 125,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Fed Reserve: Yesterday, President Trump submitted his nomination of the former Fed governor, Kevin Warsh, to the Senate as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve to replace Jerome Powell in May. Cattle & Hogs: The American Rancher Alliance reported yesterday that three-day-old bull calves are now selling for $2,200. That is quite a testament to the confidence some p

This report is primarily visual from the Crude Oil daily chart. It will take time to study it, but this will be worthwhile. As you look to the left, notice how price (highs and lows) interacts with the different horizontal red lines going back about 12 months. Also, Crude gapped up on Sunday night, giving us an idea about a price projection higher. Because the gap was very strong and did not get filled, you take the lower leg length (before the gap) and add this number to the

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, cha

Tidbits Logistics, Energy & Fertilizer: At 2:37 PM ET yesterday, President Trump ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for all maritime trade traveling through the Persian Gulf. The U.S. is preparing military measures to safeguard ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Energy contracts trimmed gains when that news came out early afternoon. In addition to 20% of the world’s crude oil, more than 30% of the world’s fe

Tidbits January crush numbers  were reported by the USDA after the close yesterday. Corn crush was 505 million bushels, down 2% from a year ago; 461 million bushels of corn were crushed for ethanol, down 1% from a year ago, crush numbers were better than we expected, given the January weather in the Corn Belt. The January weather probably had something to do with the amount of corn crushed for beverage alcohol at 3.47 million bushels, up 22% from January 2025. The soybean cru

Tidbits April WTI Crude Oil  futures opened at $75.00 last evening, up $7.98. In a matter of seconds, it traded to $75.33 and, within 15 minutes, it traded down to $71.04. Brent crude traded as high as $80 in over-the-counter trading Sunday.   The big move up is primarily on fears the Strait of Hormuz on the south end of the Persian Gulf may be closed or blocked. More than 20% of global crude oil and 33% of international fertilizer trade passes the Strait of Hormuz. Some ship