BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits All December  basis contracts and long December futures positions need to be liquidated or rolled  before the close tomorrow to avoid the chance of being assigned delivery from the CBOT.   Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 123,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China, which now has purchased 16.2% of the agreed 12 million mts by the end of January.   USDA’s final Crop Progress  report for the week ending November 23 shows corn harvesting nearly

Tidbits December CBOT options expire Friday. Soybean futures were supported Sunday night and yesterday morning by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s weekend comment that he expects a trade deal with China to be signed perhaps by Thanksgiving and expressed confidence China would buy U.S. soybeans, just a little later than we were told in late October. Then just before noon, the NOPA reported its soybean crush for October. It was 227.647 million bushels, 18 million more bushels

Tidbits U.S. harvest  of soybeans was estimated 96% complete by a Reuters poll (last week 91%) and corn 92% complete (last week 83%). Winter wheat planting was about 95% complete, up from 91% last week, and 52% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week. U.S. imports  of containerized goods declined 7.5% year-over-year in October, with shipments from China dropping 16.3% as importers tempered expectations amid evolving tariff policies. Chin

Tidbits China bought 20 shiploads of Brazil’s soybeans over the weekend.   Bloomberg reported that China is seeking U.S. wheat offers for December through February shipment. That supported corn yesterday. The U.S. will suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels starting November 10 as part of deescalating maritime tensions, Bloomberg reports. The White House says the pause of measures aimed at countering China’s shipping dominance will last one year while the U.S. n

Tidbits December oats  settled 12 cents lower Monday. Oats are a feed grain and so is corn. Oats knows! Сrop progress estimates  were released by Reuters as of 10/26/25: the corn harvest is estimated at 72% with a range of 67-80%, soybean harvest at 84% complete with a range of 80-88%, and winter wheat planting 84% complete with a range of 81-89%. Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean yield estimates unchanged at 181 bpa and 52 bpa respectively. He projects th

Tidbits Tariffs: The Trump administration began easing tariff policies, making exceptions for goods that cannot be produced, mined, or grown in the USA. The list of exemptions includes gold, LEDs, chemicals, metals, and even aircraft parts. The tariff relief is related to an upcoming Supreme Court case that may declare some duties illegal. Now the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative will be able to independently approve tariff relief, which will speed up

Tidbits China: About noon Central Time yesterday it was reported: “U.S. Trade Representative Greer says the Trump Administration thinks they will be able to "work through it" with China.” A meeting between President Trump and President Xi has officially been rescheduled. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday Washington was considering terminating some trade ties with China, including in relation to cooking oil. "I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans,

Tidbits Farm aid: The Trump administration is expected to announce a plan as soon as Tuesday to bail out U.S. farmers stung by trade disputes and big harvests, with the initial outlay potentially totaling up to $15 billion. The plan, however, could be difficult to roll out as an ongoing government shutdown prevents the kind of Congressional action needed to approve such a large payout, and existing government reserves fall short. Analysts estimate U.S. corn harvest was 29% co

Tidbits Quarterly Grain Stocks  (inventory) Report will be released today at 11 AM Central by the USDA. It will state the amount of all commodities in the U.S. as of 1 September 2025. The 2025 small grains production final (until possibly January) will also be issued. Small grains include all classes of wheat, oats, barley, and rye. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 135,660 mts of old crop corn to Mexico and 110,668 mts of old crop corn to unknown.

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 320,068 mts of 2025 crop corn sold to Mexico. Screwworm: Mexico confirmed a new case of New World Screwworm less than 70 miles from the U.S. border, the nearest detection to date. This species of screwworm is so dangerous because its maggots eat living flesh whereas other maggots eat only dead flesh. Argentina has removed export taxes on all grains until October 31, plus beef and poultry, to boost foreign sa

Tidbits NOPA crush  for August was expected to be 182.857 million bushels; actual was 189.810 million bushels, a 20% increase from a year ago. Better yet, soy oil stocks were 53 million pounds less than expected at 1.245 billion pounds. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 148.971 mts of 2025 corn to unknown. China: President Trump said yesterday he would be speaking to Chinese President Xi this Friday. Poland’s closed border with Belarus has frozen t

Tidbits The U.S. House Agriculture Committee  plans to pass a five-year reauthorization of USDA’s grain inspection program, updating the United States Grain Standards Reauthorization Act (expiring Sept. 30) to promote new technology, including a requirement for USDA to prioritize adopting improved grain grading tech and an exemption of equipment and tech costs from the 30% cap on administrative expenses; NGFA's Mike Seyfert calls it a “must-pass” for the grain value chain, wh

Tidbits Frost: It is going to be quite chilly tomorrow morning in the Upper Midwest, and, yes, it could frost, but there is no serious threat of a killing frost, but the weather forecast could change. Do not be buying corn futures solely due to frost. Tuesday’s major PMI  reports: Canada manufacturing: 48.3 vs 46.8 expected, S&P Global U.S. manufacturing: 53.0 vs 53.3 expected, S&P Global U.S. manufacturing: 48.7 vs 48.2 expected, ISM U.S. forces in the Caribbean fired upon a

Tidbits Cattle and feeder cattle  were lower yesterday after a report this weekend of the first human screwworm case in the U.S. which was found in Maryland. The person had just returned from El Salvador. The Fed: Yesterday President Trump fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook because she claimed two homes were her main residence on her mortgage applications. Wheat: Seven of the last ten years, soft red winter December wheat futures made its low in the last half of August

Tidbits Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump expressed hope that their White House summit yesterday with European leaders could eventually result in trilateral talks with President Putin over ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. Meanwhile, the war continues with no end in sight. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 124,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown. Pesticides:  The Make America Healthy Again Commission expects to recommend no action

Tidbits S&D: Today at 11AM Central time the USDA will release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which is known as WASDE or just S&D and includes U.S. estimates. The key numbers will be corn and soybean yields for the 2025 crops and changes in demand for old and new crops. The market expects record corn yield by more than 5 bushels per acre and a record bean yield by almost a full bushel. Most market analysts say soybeans were sharply higher ye

Tidbits Crude & palm oil:  India’s top crude refiners did not purchase any crude from Russia last week after President Trump threatened secondary tariffs on the buyers of Russian products. However, alternative crude sources were so few, the Indians decided to off-load more than 3 million barrels of Russia’s flagship Urals grade over the weekend. Bloomberg reports that Indian Prime Minister Modi did not instruct local oil refineries to stop purchasing Russian oil and did not m

Tidbits Multiple weather forecasters stated yesterday conditions were forming that could produce a Derecho last night from Central South Dakota southeast through Iowa into Illinois.     Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 35,000 mt of old crop corn to unknown 194,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown 225,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico.   US and Chinese  officials met Monday in Sweden, trying to agree to extend the trade truce that is set to expire August 12.

Tidbits Those of you who must deliver corn and beans this fall , if you have not already assessed production in your area versus normal production compared to the fall delivery basis being offered now, get with it. Normally, fall delivery basis needs to be set very late July or the first week of August. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes  closed at record highs  yesterday, as optimism over strong corporate earnings outweighed ongoing trade tensions. It is very discouraging

Tidbits Yesterday’s new crop corn futures  price action was technically significant. For example, December corn made new contract lows and then traded higher than Friday’s high and settled even with Friday’s high. If it had settled higher than Friday’s high, that would have been a trend changing indicator called a “key reversal.” If December corn had closed just under Friday's high, that would have been a “hook reversal,” a bullish indicator, but not as bullish as a key rever