Tidbits, Weather & Market Strength, Brazil, US PMI, Crop Progress, ENSO, Export Inspections 7/8/26
- Wright team
- Jul 7
- 4 min read
Tidbits
Super Typhoon Bavi’s near world record low barometric pressure captured the world headlines Monday morning as weather services connected the low pressure to the strong El Niño and global warming. Then pointed out the El Niño will continue to strengthen into December and January and exaggerated the potential worldwide crop production problems. The strength at the CBOT yesterday was all because of the “hype” and not because of any serious immediate crop problems. There could be later on, but nothing yesterday justified prices as strong as they were, but we will gladly accept the very nice gains. We would not be surprised to see a lower close today on profit taking, but this rally appears to have some staying power into next week at least!
The November $11.00 soybean put settled at 10-1¢.
Since “everyone” consumes coffee and cocoa, both were up nearly 15% yesterday!
As an example of the “Hype,” note the news that Weather Wealth Newsletter and Climatelligence of San Francisco put out yesterday:
The compounding forces of climate change and El Niño are supercharging extreme weather globally, pushing ecological and agricultural systems to their limits. We are beginning to see the potential for extreme heat in the western corn belt next week, more heavy rains for Brazilian coffee, dryness for Vietnamese coffee, and other disruptive forces that will offer commodity trading opportunities in the months ahead. The illustration depicts some potential crop risk areas:
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