Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast Sunday evening predicted above normal rainfall and above normal temperatures for the next two weeks in the Corn Belt. This is August, the month that makes or breaks soybean yields. The USDA predicted an average yield of 53 bushels on its July S&D, the same as a year ago, but 2.25 bushels more than 2024 and 2.4 bushels more than 2023. Matt Makens is an atmospheric scientist. He says the current Super El Niño is unlike any

Tidbits Wheat: A Ukrainian drone strike on Thursday inflicted “significant damage” on Russia’s grain export terminal at Taman on the Kerch Strait, a facility Reuters put at 5 million mts of capacity, where shipping through the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait has been halted since 10 July. That corridor handled roughly a quarter of Russian grain exports. Before the strike, Taman Port loaded 374,000 mts of wheat for export the week ending Thursday, down from 513,000 from the

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Feedback: Some farmers in Central Minnesota (Morrison County) said they will start chopping corn Monday if they do not get rain this weekend. The U.S. GDP for the second quarter came in at 1.5% growth rate vs. 1.8% expected. Jobless claims were increased to 197,000 vs. 201,000 expected and below the recent average. The June Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) P

Tidbits Yesterday's mid-day price slump on the CBOT was nothing more than the market taking some profit after several days of gains. The tariffs announcement probably contributed to that. All three commodities traded lower. Only wheat settled lower, but it had gained the most in recent days. Flash sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 126,000 mt of new crop soybeans to unknown. The Spring Wheat Tour on Day Two saw an average yield of 48.1 bushels per acre in northw

Tidbits President Donald Trump delivered a speech to the nation yesterday from the White House with a focus on the 2020 election. He is declassifying documents that he says will show interference by China in the 2020 election. Trump has repeatedly claimed without evidence that there was widespread election fraud six years ago when he lost to President Joe Biden. Trump again pushed for Congress to pass legislation that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote and

Tidbits Typhoon Bavi brought heavy rain to the eastern coast of China on Sunday and lashed densely populated cities with violent winds, testing the country's ability to cope with extreme weather, Reuters News reported. Bavi had weakened by Sunday morning to a tropical storm as it ‌pushed inland, but forecasters warned that the France-sized storm system could unleash prolonged and widespread rain across eastern and northern China in the coming days. By Sunday afternoon, Bavi

Tidbits China evacuated more than 1.9 million people as Typhoon Bavi churned toward the major eastern city of Wenzhou. Farmers raced this past week to harvest crops. At the greatest risk were rice, corn, vegetables, and fruits. The category 1 typhoon made landfall with 90 mph (144 kmph) around 11:20 pm Saturday local time. Rice is the world’s number one competitor for wheat. In Asia, wheat and rice demand is determined by price for the average consumer. Reuters reports Ch

USDA’s July S&D Yesterday’s USDA numbers were supportive for corn, wheat, and beans, but wheat got an extra boost from Russia restricting access to waterways leading to the Sea of Azov (southeast of Ukraine) following Ukrainian attacks on oil tankers operating in the region. Analysts calculate that could take 735 million bushels off the world wheat market. Russia is the world’s leading wheat exporter. Confirmation from USDA that U.S. 2026 wheat production is the lowest in 56

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday, the USDA reported new crop soybeans sales: 136,000 mts to China and 120,000 mts to unknown destinations. Soybean crush margins are record high and the U.S. crush pace is reaching breakneck speeds, according to the quarterly report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange released on July 8. Total soybeans crushed for the marketing year-to-date are up 8% compared to a year ago, with the pace consistently reaching monthly records. High diesel prices foll

Tidbits Iran & Crude: The U.S. has renewed some sanctions and military strikes on Iran after three crude oil tankers were being struck by unknown projectiles in and near the Strait of Hormuz. August crude oil finished yesterday $1.89 higher and was another $2.05 higher after two hours of trading last evening. S&D: The USDA will issue its July S&D this Friday at 10 AM Mountain Time. Planted acres will be changed to the numbers on the 30 June USDA acreage report. Demand numbers

Tidbits Super Typhoon Bavi’s near world record low barometric pressure captured the world headlines Monday morning as weather services connected the low pressure to the strong El Niño and global warming. Then pointed out the El Niño will continue to strengthen into December and January and exaggerated the potential worldwide crop production problems. The strength at the CBOT yesterday was all because of the “hype” and not because of any serious immediate crop problems. There

Tidbits Weather: On Friday, the seven locations we track in the Western Corn Belt were predicted to receive rain 40 out of a possible 70 days in the ten day forecast. Today, those same locations were predicted to receive rain in 17 days in the ten day forecast. Check this morning’s rain day chart and you will know why corn and beans are trading the way they are. The Mariana Islands are roughly halfway between the Philippines and Hawaii. Guam is the southernmost island of th

Tidbits Wheat: The Bangladeshi government has approved the purchase of 220,000 mts of U.S. wheat. Under the new agreement signed in July 2025, Bangladesh began large-scale wheat imports from the United States for the first time. According to the deal, around 700,000 mts of wheat will be imported annually, with the first phase bringing in 220,000 mts at a price of $302–$308 per mt (~$8.30/bu.). Saudi Arabia has issued a tender to purchase 655,000 mts of wheat. Delivery is sche

Tidbits All CBOT July basis contracts and long July futures contracts need to be rolled or liquidated today to avoid any chance of being assigned delivery through the CBOT. Weather: With all the hot weather in Europe the past two weeks and the heat coming into the crop areas of the U.S. this weekend and predicted to stay over the next two weeks, we were surprised to see corn and soybeans futures drop 4 to 5¢ after opening Sunday evening. A brutal Western European hea

Tidbits July CBOT Options expire today because this is the last Friday of the month with at least two business days the following week. Every corn futures contract from July 2026 through July 2027 made a new contract low yesterday and closed higher than the high for the previous day. That is what technicians call a “key reversal,” a fairly reliable indication of a price trend change. In recent weeks, corn futures contracts made two “hook reversals,” which is a new low followe

Tidbits The CBOT futures markets are closed today for Juneteenth Day. They will reopen Sunday evening at usual times. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sales of: 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 120,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown 285,775 mt of new crop corn to Mexico Algeria bought between 800-850,000 mts of milling wheat yesterday at $265/mt CFR (Cost and Freight) for August shipment. The grain is likely sourced from the Black Sea and E

Tidbits Red Tape Removed: According to Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab, a government agency), annual grain production over the past 10 years has grown by an average of nearly 7%, while storage capacity has increased only 2.4%. Currently, Brazil has the capacity to store approximately 60% to 63% of its annual grain production, more than 130 million mts less than needed. That is why their cash prices are so low during harvest; there just is no place to put the grain exc

June S&D Yesterday’s USDA June S&D was about as expected except for the increase of South American corn crops. USDA increased old crop corn imports by 3 million bushels which carried through to the carryover. Old crop soybean exports were reduced by 20 million bushels, but the old crop soybean crush was increased the same 20 million bushels, which left the carryover unchanged at 340 million bushels, a 29 day supply. There was no change in the 2026 corn or bean production numb

Tidbits The CBOT weakness this past week was a rough one to handle, but once the crop is planted, the price outlook in June is always about weather. The past seven days of weather forecasts included plenty of rain for the Corn Belt. We report to you the number of days with rain in the forecast for the next ten days for 12 locations across the Corn Belt. If all 12 locations expected rain in the ten-day forecast, the number of rain days would be 120! On 27 May, the number of ra

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 115,000 mts of new crop corn to Colombia. Biofuel: The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) filed a lawsuit Friday in the D.C. Circuit court challenging the 2026-2027 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes finalized by the EPA in March. The AFPM claims EPA’s “Set 2 rule” is the largest and most expensive RFS iteration in history and is the single most expensive regulation of President Trump’s second te