Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Today is the last business day of the week and the month. It would be reasonable to expect fund managers would want to lock-in some profits. Given how sharp the declines were this month, profits would be locked-in by the fund managers by short covering (buying futures contracts to offset their sold positions at much higher prices). Give some thought to how much corn might be moving to town over the weekend to assess how much pre-hedging there might be this afternoon.

Tidbits Today is Friday with good harvest weather. Farm storage bins are getting full and more corn and beans will be moving to grain merchandisers. That means there may be a lot of pre-hedging this afternoon and the spec traders will be anticipating the pre-hedging before it happens. Plan ahead. December corn was down 2¾¢ and Dec wheat was 3½¢ lower yesterday, but they did not trade as low as they did on Wednesday. Export Sales: USDA announced yesterday the sale of 202,000 m

Tidbits Flash Sales: USDA announced yesterday the sales of old crop soybeans: 330,000 mts to China and 283,450 mts to unknown. NOPA crush for September was 196.3 million bushels of soybeans, below the trade estimate of 203.7 million and less than a year ago. This is the first year to year decline for any month since March 2025. No question, the lack of soybeans in many areas restricted crush bushels. Do you remember Cargill’s Iowa Falls crush plant had a positive basis of 105

Tidbits After today, the Corn Belt will be mostly rain free for the next ten days. By the middle of next week should have a good “handle” on Corn Belt yields. Will harvest progress pressure corn and bean futures? It might pressure beans because of good yields, but we expect corn yields to be supportive. Farmers will not be selling so much next week to pressure the market, but the psychology of seeing good harvest progress will provide overhead resistance. Pre-hedging is a ter

Tidbits The corn inventory posted by USDA added 4 days’ of use to the carryout. Most analysts expect the 2026 corn yield to decline 2 bushels, which would fully offset the increased carry-in. There was no reason for soybeans to sell-off 10¢ as the carryover number was 8 million bushels less than the market expected. The wheat carryover was 23 million bushels more than expected. While that is not a friendly number, it sure does not justify wheat losing nearly as much as it did

Tidbits The U.S.-China summit has not yielded any significant new information for the grain markets, and as a result, major grain markets are currently trading lower. The "Busan" trade agreement between the U.S. and China has been extended until 10 January 2027. That was the first announcement yesterday morning from the White House. That means tariffs will remain reduced, and export controls on rare earth elements will continue to be eased. This agreement was signed by the U.

Tidbits Logistics: Iowa has issued weight-limit exemptions for vehicles up to 90,000 pounds gross weight transporting corn, soybeans, hay, straw, silage, stover, fertilizer, manure, and distiller grains. The waiver is effective until October 10 and was granted to help mitigate traffic concerns during harvest time. A farmer association said the waiver will allow a 1,000-acre farmer to use 26 fewer truckloads during this harvest, which is significant during the high fuel prices

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sale of 264,000 mts of old crop corn to Mexico. Soy Crush & Exports: The total volume of soybean processing in the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil during the September–August 2025/26 marketing year reached a record high of 176.7 million mts, 5.2% higher from the previous year’s 167.9 million, according to Oil World from Germany. The U.S. crushed 72.1 million mts and 8.4% more compared to a year ago, Brazil at 61.76 million and

Tidbits Iran & Oil: American forces resumed strikes against Iran yesterday, U.S. Central Command has said. In response, Iran launched attacks at U.S. military bases in Iraq and Jordan, according to local state media and the Jordanian Armed Forces. Attacks were also reported in Kuwait and Bahrain. Crude oil prices have surged again.

Tidbits Iran & China: On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced new sanctions to strangle Iran economically and target countries and businesses doing business with Iran. Bessent put countries on notice that they will have to work with the United States or face losing access to the global dollar-based financial system. Late Wednesday, a Treasury spokesperson said China would be exempt, which means the soybean market dodged a bullet. High temperatures and heavy rain have

Tidbits Corn and Soybean Facts of Life: The only years that corn and soybean futures decline after the first half of September are the years that yields are uniformly better than expected across the Corn Belt. If you think yields across the Corn Belt are not going to be better than the market expects, do not be pricing corn or soybeans yet. Key Put Option Premiums: $4.80 December Corn Put: 12-3¢ (12 and three-eighths) $12.00 November Soybean Put: 17-3¢ $11.00 November Soybean

Tidbits Soybeans and wheat held up well yesterday after Wednesday’s gains, but corn gave back almost half of Wednesday’s gains despite some Wednesday reports that a derecho may have extended from South Dakota to Virginia. While there was a lot of wind and water damage to crops and buildings, when the sun came up Thursday, the corn crop was not damaged nearly as bad as some analysts suggested. The bullish news for corn that is not going to go away is that both the old and new

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 122,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Weather: The drought monitor as of August 4th shows 70.9% of the U.S. is experiencing abnormal dryness or drought, up 3 points from the previous week, with 48.5% in D1 level drought or higher: corn at 28% (down 1), soybeans at 26% (unchanged), and 58% (up 16 points) of spring wheat acres also impacted. The National Weather Service 7-day forecast expects rain to be lighter

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Weather & Markets: Small rain squalls in Nebraska and Iowa popped up early Tuesday morning and turned corn, wheat, and beans futures from higher to lower. Once again, when it is July or August and raining in Iowa, corn and bean prices go down. If you have old or new crop soybeans not priced, do you know the Corn Belt is expected to have above normal temperatures and above

Tidbits The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast Sunday evening predicted above normal rainfall and above normal temperatures for the next two weeks in the Corn Belt. This is August, the month that makes or breaks soybean yields. The USDA predicted an average yield of 53 bushels on its July S&D, the same as a year ago, but 2.25 bushels more than 2024 and 2.4 bushels more than 2023. Matt Makens is an atmospheric scientist. He says the current Super El Niño is unlike any

Tidbits Wheat: A Ukrainian drone strike on Thursday inflicted “significant damage” on Russia’s grain export terminal at Taman on the Kerch Strait, a facility Reuters put at 5 million mts of capacity, where shipping through the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait has been halted since 10 July. That corridor handled roughly a quarter of Russian grain exports. Before the strike, Taman Port loaded 374,000 mts of wheat for export the week ending Thursday, down from 513,000 from the

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Feedback: Some farmers in Central Minnesota (Morrison County) said they will start chopping corn Monday if they do not get rain this weekend. The U.S. GDP for the second quarter came in at 1.5% growth rate vs. 1.8% expected. Jobless claims were increased to 197,000 vs. 201,000 expected and below the recent average. The June Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) P

Tidbits Yesterday's mid-day price slump on the CBOT was nothing more than the market taking some profit after several days of gains. The tariffs announcement probably contributed to that. All three commodities traded lower. Only wheat settled lower, but it had gained the most in recent days. Flash sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 126,000 mt of new crop soybeans to unknown. The Spring Wheat Tour on Day Two saw an average yield of 48.1 bushels per acre in northw

Tidbits President Donald Trump delivered a speech to the nation yesterday from the White House with a focus on the 2020 election. He is declassifying documents that he says will show interference by China in the 2020 election. Trump has repeatedly claimed without evidence that there was widespread election fraud six years ago when he lost to President Joe Biden. Trump again pushed for Congress to pass legislation that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote and

Tidbits Typhoon Bavi brought heavy rain to the eastern coast of China on Sunday and lashed densely populated cities with violent winds, testing the country's ability to cope with extreme weather, Reuters News reported. Bavi had weakened by Sunday morning to a tropical storm as it ‌pushed inland, but forecasters warned that the France-sized storm system could unleash prolonged and widespread rain across eastern and northern China in the coming days. By Sunday afternoon, Bavi