BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits The weather forecast is predicting limited rainfall through next week for Western Kansas, Eastern Colorado, and Nebraska with no rain in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The update to the Drought Monitor yesterday morning shows 70% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in drought. That is the largest since 2023 and the largest drought area for this time of the growing season since 2022. Total global grains production is expected to set a record during this marketing season,

Tidbits Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Iran said it was responding to a continued U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, calling it a violation of their ceasefire, while Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran's navy ‌was ready to inflict "new bitter defeats" on its enemies. At least two Indian flagged vessels carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil were hit while trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Iranian State media quoted the Supreme National

Tidbits Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) raised its 2025/26 Argentine corn production estimate by 4 million mts to 61 million mts, well above the USDA’s April WASDE forecast of 52 million mts, however still below the Rosario Grain Exchange estimate of 67 million mts. The BAGE kept their soybean production forecast steady at 48.5 million mts while reporting harvest at 6% complete. France’s Ag Ministry estimates 2026 soft wheat planting at 4.61 million hectare

Tidbits The U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement. Each side blamed the other for the failure of the 21-hour negotiations to make a deal. Iran will not agree to give up its pursuit of developing nuclear weapons. The U.S. and most of its allies require Iran to give up that pursuit. After all, Iran has openly stated for 47 years it wants to “Blow Israel off the map” and “Death to America.” The military operation versus Iran will not end unless Iran has a regime change

Tidbits Tomorrow at 11 AM Central time the USDA will release the Planting Intentions for 2026 crops and the Grain Stocks as of 1 March. This is probably the second most important USDA reporting day of the year (after June Stocks and Planted Acreage reports). Uruguay: Santiago Fernández Camacho is the Managing Director of The Trade Bridge Group of Montevideo, Uruguay, which borders Brazil to the north and Argentina to the west. We asked Santiago to give an update on agri

Tidbits Iran & Crude oil: Saturday evening, President Trump posted on Truth Social stating: “If Iran doesn’t fully open, without threat, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one!” Iran responded yesterday it will move to shut down the entire Strait of Hormuz if President Donald Trump follows through with his threats and that any companie

Highlights Israel launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran on Saturday about 8 AM local time, pushing the Middle East into a renewed military confrontation and further dimming hopes for a diplomatic solution to Tehran's long-running nuclear dispute with the West. The New York Times and Al Jazeera, citing a U.S. official, reported that the United States took part in the strikes. President Trump confirmed that the U.S. military began major combat operations in Iran. Tidbits

Tidbits The Supreme Court’s decision that made a large portion of President Trump’s tariffs illegal will not have a direct impact on corn, wheat, and soybean prices. After all, Trump's tariffs are on imports into the U.S., not our exports. Confusion and misinformation is often bearish, but Trump’s new 10% tariffs introduced on Friday afternoon will help stabilize all the markets. Those 10% tariffs will come into effect Tuesday and will be in place for 150 days, the White Ho

Tidbits Eduardo Vanin reported Saturday: "Too much rain in the Center of Brazil and Parana and late planting up North. 1. Supply side is pricing a possible (harvest) delay. A small amount of beans supply in January. The spread of Feb-Mar is still close to 20¢. The CFR is more than that. 2. Corn market is firmer for safrinha as a side effect. Probably the start of the export program will again be slow (small program for July)." And on Sunday he added: "Last week Brazil sold

Tidbits Soybeans: The U.S. may not be selling soybeans to the world’s largest soybean importer (China), but it looks like the U.S. will be selling beans to the world’s largest soybean producer (Brazil), which sells most of its beans to China. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, Brazil soybean crushing plants near Brazil’s ports are running the numbers on importing U.S. soybeans instead of trying to get beans from the West Central area of Brazil, which is 600 to 1,000 miles away from t

Tidbits Yesterday, December corn opened unchanged at $4.18 (open price) and then traded to $4.14¼ (day low) technical support during the day. Before the close it recovered to $4.21 (day high) and settled at $4.19¾ (close price), up 1¾¢ for the day. Such four prices form a bar or a candle for the chart. Bar/candle charts give you more sense of the trading periods compared to linear charts (where only one price describes a period). We hope you are usually using either bar or ca

Tidbits Monday is 1 September, Labor Day. After trade is complete today, no ag commodities will trade until Monday evening. Crude oil will trade normal hours Sunday evening through Monday with a trade date listed as 2 September. Therefore, Monday and Tuesday crude oil trading will both be recorded as one trading day, Tuesday 2 September. The U.S. GDP grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in Q2, up from the 3% estimate, helped by stronger consumer spending and a notable upgrade in bu

Tidbits September CBOT options expire today. All September basis contracts and long September futures positions need to be liquidated or rolled forward by the close of business on 28 August, next Thursday. Your merchandiser’s “house rules” may require action before the 28th. Soybeans to China: Fox News reported late yesterday U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent told President Caleb Ragland of the American Soybean Association and the Governor of Ohio: “We are in the process of

Tidbits Export Markets by Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities Saturday 9 August 2025: Soybean Premiums (basis) Continue to Rise, Brazilian Corn Can't Compete This past week the soybean market was marked by intense demand from China, which purchased more than 40 vessels. This strong demand is driving up premiums for Brazilian soybeans, making them increasingly expensive and difficult to trade, not only due to rising prices but also due to logistical challenges and a lack

Tidbits Corn: The corn market got two news items yesterday morning to encourage some serious buying of corn futures. USDA weekly export sales report yesterday morning showed corn sales were fifth highest weekly sales of all time. Three of the four higher weekly corn sales included large quantities sold to China in the fall of 2021. Soybean and wheat export sales were also above the top of the range of pre-report estimates. That takes the total new crop sales to 11.777 millio

Tidbits The whole world is waiting for news about the tariffs that President Donald Trump is expected to announce today. President Trump granted Mexico a 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs to negotiate a broader trade deal, after a call with Mexican President Sheinbaum, avoiding a 30% duty on most Mexican non-automotive and non-metal goods under USMCA. Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of: 100,000 mts of new crop corn to Colombia 140,000 mts of new crop corn to S

Tidbits EPA Director Lee Zeldin announced yesterday that gasoline cans have been deregulated, issuing letters to manufacturers encouraging them to add vents to gas cans to ensure safe and effective refueling. Old fashioned cans with a vent and a simple threaded lid must now be legal! In 2007, EPA finalized a rule requiring manufacturers to reduce evaporative emissions by sealing in gasoline vapors, which allowed vents as long as they close automatically when not in use. Due t

Tidbits The talk of poor pollination for corn is getting some legs to stand on. It is three weeks too early to put a number on the potential yield impact because most of the corn has not pollinated yet, but pollination problems on this corn early corn are definitely worse than normal. Other problems with Tarpspot and fungicide being washed away in many areas. The fast growing corn plants have not only restricted the release of pollen, but agronomists are beginning to find ver

Tidbits Yesterday turned out to be a profit-taking day for recent corn buyers. The lowest weekly export old crop corn sales of the marketing year did not help, which is to be expected this time of year. The marketing year ends in 6 weeks and it takes 30+ days to get shipping lined-up. Farmer corn sales continue to be light. Yesterday, the Dyersville, Iowa ethanol plant firmed their basis 3¢ to 3 over September. Cargill’s Dayton, Ohio corn syrup plant has kept their basis 55 o

Tidbits At 11 AM Central today, the USDA will issue its monthly S&D. Yesterday, we sent the July S&D estimates, but for the 2024 S&D, not for 2025! We humbly apologize. Here are the estimates for today’s report from USDA (note the U.S. carryout projection for old and new crop corn are both slightly less than the June carryout numbers): CONAB increased its corn production forecast for Brazil by 3.72 million mts to a record 131.97 million mts (USDA 130), with the safrinha crop