BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Israel plans to make further trade concessions to the U.S. on food and agricultural goods. The Israeli government intends to scrap a tax-free quota and raise levies to 50% on wheat-feed imported from countries other than the U.S. starting in April, as Bloomberg reports. Officials hope that boosting the competitiveness of U.S. wheat against Israel’s traditional suppliers — the largest of them being Russia — will help clinch a deal to ease tariffs on goods shipped to th

Tidbits First notice day  for March futures is this coming Friday. Panama has reassigned control of two key ports from Chinese operator CK Hutchinson to two European operators after nearly three decades in Chinese hands. CK Hutchison said Panama's decision to cancel key port contracts and grant temporary licences to Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping was “unlawful” as it considers national and international legal action against Panama and third parties. U.S. President Donald T

Tidbits Soy Crush: The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported its members crushed 221.654 million bushels of soybeans in January 2026, up 10.6% from a year ago. The market expected a January crush of 218.52 million bushels. The crush was down 1.5% from December because of the cold weather. Soy oil stocks at the end of January were 1.9 billion pounds versus 1.71 billion expected. The USDA will report their version of the January crush on the first business day

Tidbits It is amazing how suddenly “everyone” trusts Communist China to do what they say they will do when it comes to business transactions. The South China Post reported early Thursday that China’s President Xi and President Trump will extend the trade war truce by as much as a year when they meet Beijing in early April. March soybeans  made a new high for the move yesterday, left a quarter cent gap on the chart, and settled higher than any day since the first day of Decemb

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 230,560 mts of old crop corn to unknown. South America: Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazil soybean estimate unchanged at 179 million mts (USDA 180). He said there are now two concerns in Brazil - poor quality seed in parts of northern Mato Grosso and continued hot and dry conditions in southern Brazil, especially Rio Grande do Sul and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. Both of these situations as something th

Tidbits The USDA  will issue its February S&D today at 11 AM central time. We do not expect any surprises, but nothing in this business is 100%. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 264,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. Farmers in Brazil  have harvested 16.55% of the area planted with soy for the 2025/26 season, above the 9.84% harvested this time last year, consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday. Brazil 2025/26 soy harvest sales at

Tidbits President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Fed Chair Powell in May. Warsh is a lawyer and distinguished visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Warsh has said he believes the president is right to press the Fed for steep rate cuts and has criticized the central bank for underestimating the inflation-busting potential of productivity growth supercharged by artificial intelligence. He has also called for a broad overhaul, a "regim

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 110,000 mts of old crop corn and 306,000 mts of old crop sorghum to unknown. The dollar index  has lost 3.4% in the last 6 trading days. That is supposed to be super bullish for U.S. exports, especially wheat. The storm  across the U.S. has cut electricity to millions of people in the U.S., which contributed to reducing crude oil production by 2 million barrels per day and reducing natural gas production by

Tidbits Basis:  Poet at Fairbank, Iowa weakened their corn basis by 5¢ yesterday. Corning, Iowa Poet firmed their basis 2¢. Many corn river bids were 2 to 3¢ firmer. Cargill weakened their soybean basis in Sioux City, Iowa by 5¢ to -35H, but firmed their bean basis in Sidney, Ohio by 18¢ to +10H. ADM in Des Moines, Iowa firmed their bean basis by 5¢ to -30H.   A U.S. government shutdown  is possible by the end of the week, which could impact the bridge payments expected in Fe

Tidbits Exports: Yesterday morning, the USDA reported sales of 190,000 mts of old crop soybean meal to the Philippines. News sources indicate China has likely reached its 12 million mts commitment of U.S. soybeans purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year, and that further purchases are unlikely until September unless prices are competitive with South American soybean prices. Most of the volume is heading for reserves and is 47% fewer than China bought in 2024/25. The USDA pur

Tidbits President Trump announced that he will immediately impose a 25% tariff on any country that does any business with Iran. According to the most recent World Bank data, Iran, an OPEC member, exported goods to 147 countries in 2022. Its largest trading partners are China, certain East Asian countries, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Germany. The price of crude oil rose by another $1.50. The Supreme Court is expected to issue their ruling on Trump’s tariffs tod

Corn Outlook & Tidbits At 11 AM Central Time today USDA will release its final 2025 crop production reports, monthly S&D for the U.S. and the world, as well actual planted acres for winter wheat. We will send you the numbers as quickly as we can.   Corn prices:  Yesterday afternoon Teucrium Investments reminded its clients that seasonal studies show that corn frequently finds a post-harvest low in early autumn before stabilizing and pushing higher into year-end and beyond. Th

Tidbits On Monday at 11 AM Central Time, the USDA will issue its revised estimates for domestic and world Supply and Demand (S&D), the final 2025 U.S. crop production and yield numbers, the Quarterly Stocks (inventory) of commodities as of 1 December 2025, Winter Wheat and Canola seedings, and Cotton Ginnings. The January USDA reports are one of the top three major report days of every year for grain producers and users. The market action of March futures for the day of & the

Tidbits During Friday’s session, CBOT wheat futures put in new contract lows, and then bounced back to close exactly equal to the opening prices. People who know a lot more about technical analysis than we do said this creates a “dragonfly doji” pattern on the daily price chart. Investopedia.com states, “The dragonfly doji is a Japanese candlestick pattern that signals potential market reversal and reflects investor decisions.” It is a minor signal, but yesterday’s market ac

Tidbits The CBOT  ag markets will have regular hours today, but no night session tonight and will reopen Friday morning at 8:30 AM Central with a regular closing time. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop beans to China and 231,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown. AgrInvest Commodities’ Eduardo Vanin yesterday morning: “China booked a few U.S. (soybean)  cargoes yesterday. The total is close to 140 cargoes, ~80% of the 12 mil

Tidbits There was no reasonable explanation for corn, beans and wheat to be smartly lower yesterday. Crude was up more than a dollar early in the day. Corn export inspections for Christmas week were less than previous week, which is to be expected, but were 47% more than a year ago. Soybean export inspections were 54% less and wheat inspections were 11% less than a year ago. Also, the USDA announced the sale of 100,000 mts of old crop soybeans to Egypt. Grain markets will clo

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 330,000 mts of old crop soybeans and 66,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. The ag markets  will close at 12:05 PM Central tomorrow and reopen at 8:30 AM Central the day after Christmas. January options expire on Friday. Long January futures and basis contracts need to be liquidated or rolled by the close of business Tuesday, 30 December. CBOT prices  were higher yesterday and the basis for corn and bean

Tidbits Eduardo Vanin  reported Saturday: "Too much rain in the Center of Brazil and Parana and late planting up North. 1. Supply side is pricing a possible (harvest)  delay. A small amount of beans supply in January. The spread of Feb-Mar is still close to 20¢. The CFR is more than that. 2. Corn market is firmer for safrinha as a side effect. Probably the start of the export program will again be slow (small program for July)."   And on Sunday he added: "Last week Brazil sol

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts of soybeans to China 104,328 mts of soy meal to Mexico 250,000 mts of corn to unknown Brazil's Corn: Geraldo Isolodi is an analyst with Terra Investmentos of Brazil. He wrote his South American Crop Update earlier this month. Here are the highlights of what he had to say about the corn market:  "At the present, the corn market is supported by robust domestic demand from corn-based ethanol plan

Сurrency & Prices We mentioned on Saturday that the Brazilian currency was sharply lower on Friday, making Brazil’s products cheaper to buy for foreign buyers compared to U.S. products. Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag reported Brazil’s currency lost 2.3% versus the dollar on Friday. Despite CBOT January soybeans settling 14¼¢ lower on Friday, Brazil’s soybeans gained about 11¢. Here is the math:   If soybeans were $11 a bushel in the U.S. on Friday and the exchange rate of Brazil’