BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Corn Outlook & Tidbits At 11 AM Central Time today USDA will release its final 2025 crop production reports, monthly S&D for the U.S. and the world, as well actual planted acres for winter wheat. We will send you the numbers as quickly as we can.   Corn prices:  Yesterday afternoon Teucrium Investments reminded its clients that seasonal studies show that corn frequently finds a post-harvest low in early autumn before stabilizing and pushing higher into year-end and beyond. Th

Tidbits On Monday at 11 AM Central Time, the USDA will issue its revised estimates for domestic and world Supply and Demand (S&D), the final 2025 U.S. crop production and yield numbers, the Quarterly Stocks (inventory) of commodities as of 1 December 2025, Winter Wheat and Canola seedings, and Cotton Ginnings. The January USDA reports are one of the top three major report days of every year for grain producers and users. The market action of March futures for the day of & the

Tidbits During Friday’s session, CBOT wheat futures put in new contract lows, and then bounced back to close exactly equal to the opening prices. People who know a lot more about technical analysis than we do said this creates a “dragonfly doji” pattern on the daily price chart. Investopedia.com states, “The dragonfly doji is a Japanese candlestick pattern that signals potential market reversal and reflects investor decisions.” It is a minor signal, but yesterday’s market ac

Tidbits The CBOT  ag markets will have regular hours today, but no night session tonight and will reopen Friday morning at 8:30 AM Central with a regular closing time. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop beans to China and 231,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown. AgrInvest Commodities’ Eduardo Vanin yesterday morning: “China booked a few U.S. (soybean)  cargoes yesterday. The total is close to 140 cargoes, ~80% of the 12 mil

Tidbits There was no reasonable explanation for corn, beans and wheat to be smartly lower yesterday. Crude was up more than a dollar early in the day. Corn export inspections for Christmas week were less than previous week, which is to be expected, but were 47% more than a year ago. Soybean export inspections were 54% less and wheat inspections were 11% less than a year ago. Also, the USDA announced the sale of 100,000 mts of old crop soybeans to Egypt. Grain markets will clo

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 330,000 mts of old crop soybeans and 66,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. The ag markets  will close at 12:05 PM Central tomorrow and reopen at 8:30 AM Central the day after Christmas. January options expire on Friday. Long January futures and basis contracts need to be liquidated or rolled by the close of business Tuesday, 30 December. CBOT prices  were higher yesterday and the basis for corn and bean

Tidbits Eduardo Vanin  reported Saturday: "Too much rain in the Center of Brazil and Parana and late planting up North. 1. Supply side is pricing a possible (harvest)  delay. A small amount of beans supply in January. The spread of Feb-Mar is still close to 20¢. The CFR is more than that. 2. Corn market is firmer for safrinha as a side effect. Probably the start of the export program will again be slow (small program for July)."   And on Sunday he added: "Last week Brazil sol

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts of soybeans to China 104,328 mts of soy meal to Mexico 250,000 mts of corn to unknown Brazil's Corn: Geraldo Isolodi is an analyst with Terra Investmentos of Brazil. He wrote his South American Crop Update earlier this month. Here are the highlights of what he had to say about the corn market:  "At the present, the corn market is supported by robust domestic demand from corn-based ethanol plan

Сurrency & Prices We mentioned on Saturday that the Brazilian currency was sharply lower on Friday, making Brazil’s products cheaper to buy for foreign buyers compared to U.S. products. Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag reported Brazil’s currency lost 2.3% versus the dollar on Friday. Despite CBOT January soybeans settling 14¼¢ lower on Friday, Brazil’s soybeans gained about 11¢. Here is the math:   If soybeans were $11 a bushel in the U.S. on Friday and the exchange rate of Brazil’

Tidbits USDA Secretary  Brooke Rollins announced major updates to federal crop insurance to:  Reduce red tape Modernizing long-standing policies Expand access to critical risk protection She said for every new regulation added, there were 48 regulations eliminated. You can read an AI summary  on our website or the whole document  in the Federal Registry.   Crude oil  closed at a 16 day high yesterday supported by decreased probability of an end to the Russia and Ukraine war.

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 100,800 mts of old crop corn to Colombia and 392,500 mts of old crop corn to Mexico. Crude oil  jumped 80¢ higher yesterday mid-day when it was revealed that President Putin said he is not going to give-up real estate gains his military has occupied in Ukraine. Russia currently controls 19.2% of Ukraine, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. Vladimir Putin visited India for the first time in four year

Tidbits Farm Aid: U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Trump administration will unveil a “bridge payment” for farmers next week to provide short-term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized, amid pressure from farm groups and Republican lawmakers. The administration faces calls for more immediate funds for the next planting season, while expanding some farm supports in the latest spending bill. Overall, the U.S. government is expected to spend

Tidbits Ukraine:  U.S. Sec. of State Rubio led U.S. negotiations with Ukrainian officials in Florida yesterday. Both sides said the talks were productive about a peace deal with Russia with Rubio expressing optimism about the progress. Rubio said the aim is to create a pathway that leaves Ukraine sovereign and independent.   Venezuela:  Yesterday, Venezuela's President Maduro was requesting a conversation with President Trump according to multiple news sources. Sunday evening

Tidbits December oats  settled 12 cents lower Monday. Oats are a feed grain and so is corn. Oats knows! Сrop progress estimates  were released by Reuters as of 10/26/25: the corn harvest is estimated at 72% with a range of 67-80%, soybean harvest at 84% complete with a range of 80-88%, and winter wheat planting 84% complete with a range of 81-89%. Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean yield estimates unchanged at 181 bpa and 52 bpa respectively. He projects th

Tidbits Corn basis  continues to firm. Dan reported Heritage Coop in West Central Ohio firmed from -45Z (45¢ under Dec futures) last Friday, to -40Z on Monday, to -37Z yesterday. More than half the corn is still in the field in that area where yields are not as good as expected in early August, but above average. Agronomists have identified the area west of Galesburg, Illinois, including communities of Alexis, Joy, Monmouth, Kirkwood, etc., as the Tarspot Ground Zero of the C

Tidbits U.S. farming: The Trump administration was expected to announce yesterday a plan to bail out U.S. farmers, but a White House spokeswoman said: “No decisions regarding new agricultural policies have been made.” Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his 2025 U.S. corn yield estimate by 1 bushel to 181 bpa, while the soybean yield forecast remained unchanged at 52 bpa. His bias is neutral-to-lower for both crops. U.S. farmers are cautiously optimistic about the long term but facing

Tidbits Harvest report  from Northeast Illinois farmer: "I can verify yield difference on beans: beans planted early April were 25 bushels more than beans planted 3rd week in May."   U.S. weather:  Last evening’s 6 to 10 day forecast predicts the hot weather will continue for the Midwest and Eastern U.S. with a chance for rain in the Western Corn Belt.     Brazil weather from AgrInvest Commodities: "After September's rains, the atmosphere is clearing up again in the Center-No

Tidbits Ag support:  Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke L. Rollins announced last week an aggressive three-point plan that will support American agricultural producers and exporters. “President Trump is putting American agriculture first by negotiating fair, reciprocal deals that benefit U.S. producers, farmers, and ranchers,”  said Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke J. Lindberg. “Secretary Rollins is focused on expanding market access, enforcing tr

Tidbits Soybeans: The U.S. may not be selling soybeans to the world’s largest soybean importer (China), but it looks like the U.S. will be selling beans to the world’s largest soybean producer (Brazil), which sells most of its beans to China. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, Brazil soybean crushing plants near Brazil’s ports are running the numbers on importing U.S. soybeans instead of trying to get beans from the West Central area of Brazil, which is 600 to 1,000 miles away from t

Tidbits Yield:  Darren Frye of Water Street Commodities in Peoria has been a market analyst for 42 years and is well respected in the business. He is not afraid to say what he thinks no matter who is listening. After Friday’s USDA numbers were released he wrote on X: "I am lowering my yield range in corn to 170-175 (USDA 186.7) . USDA will be coming down big on next report. People think it was a perfect year for corn. Well, the corn is speaking and it is saying this is an “ep