Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits The victory of the Democrats in the American Congress will bring important changes to agribusiness. According to Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities from Brazil, the scenario may favor corn, ethanol, and soybean oil, but it could also put pressure on soybean meal and crushing margins in Brazil. Vanin expects China’s state-owned companies will continue to buy American soybeans, while private industries remain focused on Brazilian products. The Chinese government doe

Tidbits Yield reports from Stan just north of Central Illinois: “Yield reports (both from neighbors and my fields): Corn yield is about 10-12% lower than last year. Fields without pattern tile or where water runs across vary even more. Bean yields are about even with last year, or maybe just a tad lower. But again, wide variation for those without good drainage; too much water at times for both corn and beans, and then too hot and dry for too long for much of July into early

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, USDA announced corn sales to Mexico: 173,800 mts of old crop, 22,400 mts of new crop, and 22,400 mts of the 2028 crop. Wheat: Saudi Arabia issued a tender Thursday for 535,000 mts of milling wheat with a bid deadline yesterday for delivery in Nov–Dec 2026. Results to be announced on Monday. The country issued a wheat tender on 7 September but cancelled it due to high prices. In Europe, the price of corn is higher than milling quality wheat, so

Tidbits Iran & Oil: American forces resumed strikes against Iran yesterday, U.S. Central Command has said. In response, Iran launched attacks at U.S. military bases in Iraq and Jordan, according to local state media and the Jordanian Armed Forces. Attacks were also reported in Kuwait and Bahrain. Crude oil prices have surged again.

Tidbits Showers in the southern half of Iowa and northern Missouri, with additional scattered rains across Nebraska and Kansas, pressured corn and beans yesterday. Technical support at the 50 day moving price average for corn and the 100 day moving average for beans held, which is a significant bullish indication given the amount of rain that has fallen this week and expected into next week. Rain is the whole story this week despite the corn crop rating losing 6 percentage po

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 488,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China and 136,150 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown. The June USDA crushing report had 520 million bushels of corn crushed, up 5% from a year ago. The soybean crush was 218 million bushels, up 10.65% from a year ago. The canola June crush was 204,577 tons, up 22.9% from a year ago. Biofuel: Friday EIA data showed combined biodiesel and renewable diesel production in May 2026 w

Tidbits Super Typhoon Bavi’s near world record low barometric pressure captured the world headlines Monday morning as weather services connected the low pressure to the strong El Niño and global warming. Then pointed out the El Niño will continue to strengthen into December and January and exaggerated the potential worldwide crop production problems. The strength at the CBOT yesterday was all because of the “hype” and not because of any serious immediate crop problems. There

Tidbits Logistics, Energy & Fertilizer: At 2:37 PM ET yesterday, President Trump ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for all maritime trade traveling through the Persian Gulf. The U.S. is preparing military measures to safeguard ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Energy contracts trimmed gains when that news came out early afternoon. In addition to 20% of the world’s crude oil, more than 30% of the world’s fe

Tidbits Biofuels consultant and VP of Montana Renewables, Corey Lavinsky, reported progress yesterday on 45Z: “The U.S. Treasury Department expects a 45Z specific version of USDA’s Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator to be used to calculate carbon intensity in the 45ZCF-GREET model. Unfortunately, the calculator isn't ready yet. The public hearing date for 45Z isn't until May 28, 2026, so this will be a long process. The proposed regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuel Productio

Tidbits The U.S. Composite Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was reported yesterday morning by S&P Global to be 52.8; the market expected 51.9. The “composite” PMI is the manufacturing and service sector combined. A PMI above 50 means purchasing managers plan to buy more supplies for their business in the coming month than they purchased the previous month. It is a forward looking economic indicator. Crude oil: A few days ago, the French navy intercepted a shadow fleet tank

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 336,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mts for March–May shipment, the total U.S. crop purchases are now estimated at 8.5–10 million mts, up to 80% of the 12 million mts Secretary Scott Bessent said China pledged to buy by end-February. Venezuela’s Stock Market was up 17% on Monday and 50% yesterday after Nicolás

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Tidbits U.S. crude oil stocks including the SPR rose by 800,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 28, following a 3.3 million-barrel build the prior week. It was up 0.1% from the prior week and 2.9% year over year, and remained about 3% below the five-year seasonal average. Imports from Mexico dropped by 431,000 bpd to a weekly record low of 131,000 bpd in the week. Venezuela’s oil exports averaged about 921,000 bpd in November, the year’s third-highest monthly level. Overall ex

Tidbits OPEC+ agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 at its meetings on Sunday as the group slows down its push to regain market share amid fears of a looming supply glut. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI by S&P showed continued expansion in November, with a reading of 52.2, from 52.5 in October and well above 50, indicating sector growth for a fourth consecutive month; the index suggests slow improvement in operating conditions, driven by a stron

Tidbits China bought 20 shiploads of Brazil’s soybeans over the weekend. Bloomberg reported that China is seeking U.S. wheat offers for December through February shipment. That supported corn yesterday. The U.S. will suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels starting November 10 as part of deescalating maritime tensions, Bloomberg reports. The White House says the pause of measures aimed at countering China’s shipping dominance will last one year while the U.S. n

Tidbits Venezuela: The Pentagon announced yesterday the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford with its Strike Group has been ordered to Latin America to target drug trafficking organizations, marking a significant increase of the U.S. military buildup in the Latin American region. U.S. Economy: Markets have priced-in nearly a 99% probability the Federal Reserve will reduce the Fed Fund interest rate 25 basis points (a quarter of a percent) next week, with similar odds for a

Tidbits Mexican Corn: The USDA attaché to Mexico sees their 2025/26 corn crop up 8% from last year at 25 million mts (USDA 24.8). Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 100,593 mts of 2025 crop corn and 22,354 mts of 2026 crop corn to Mexico. PMIs: Composite (Manufacturing & Services) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was reported for: USA at 53.6 vs 54.1 expected Europe at 51.2 vs 51.1 expected Great Britain at 51.0 vs 52.9 expected Australia at 52.1 vs 50.4 expect

Tidbits Basis: It has been dry in the Eastern Corn Belt since late July and before that in many places. That means the Ohio River is low and that means the Lower Mississippi is going to be low enough sometime this week that barges will not be able to be completely loaded and that means higher barge rates, weaker basis, which has already been factored into current bids. More than 50% of the water in the Lower Mississippi comes from the Ohio River. Venezuela & Oil: A large buil

Tidbits Soybean crush: The USDA July soybean crush report will be issued tomorrow. It is expected to be up 7.2% from a year ago at 207.2 million bushels, the largest July crush on record and 5th largest of any month. India-Pakistan: More than a million people in Pakistan have been displaced in the Punjab province as the worst flooding there in four decades caused havoc in hundreds of villages and submerged vital grains crops. Torrential monsoon rain and neighboring India's

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 128,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown. Oils: Karen Braun reported that the U.S. cooking oil imports fell to a 16-month low in June, but first half 2025 used cooking oil imports were up 9% from a year ago. Starting January 2026, only biofuel feedstock from Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. will be eligible for the tax credits. North America soybean oil and canola oil will be the main feedstock for biofuels and