BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits OPEC has lowered its world oil demand forecast for the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day to 105.07 million bpd, citing the economic impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported. AAA lists the national average gasoline price at $4.12, up from $3.63 a month ago and $3.18 a year ago. The national average diesel price at $5.65, up from $4.89 a month ago and $3.59 a year ago. Biofuel & Oils: Palm oil is the most plentiful vegetable oil, which is

Tidbits Budgeting: Progressive Farmer reported that President Donald Trump’s proposed budget for USDA again calls for making a nearly 20% cut to discretionary programs. The top line for the president’s budget released Friday is a $1.5 trillion request for Defense spending, while proposing to cut about $660 billion in non-military spending across the federal government. U.S. agriculture equipment  maker Deere on ​Monday agreed to pay $99 million into a settlement fund for ‌ fa

Tidbits Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks  reports will be released by the USDA today at 11 AM Central. Here is the May futures price change on the reports release days in previous years:

Highlights: Iran Shortly after 6 AM Central time yesterday morning, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran and the U.S. had engaged in “good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution” of the hostilities. Consequently, Trump wrote that he had ordered the Department of War to postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. That sent crude oil  down $10 and CBOT markets went from smartly higher to lo

Tidbits Soybeans & China: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview yesterday morning that the Sunday and Monday talks with China in Paris had been ‘very good,’ adding that the U.S. continues to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing. However, President Trump said his meeting with China’s President Xi planned to begin on 31 March may be postponed due to “logistical” problems. We take that to mean he is too busy with Iran and crude oil flow. The soybean market

Tidbits The USDA will issue its March S&D at 11 AM Central time today. There were new contract highs in the soy complex and also in a few deferred corn futures months amid crude oil spikes. AgRural reports Brazil’s first corn harvest hit 42%, lagging the 54% seen a year earlier. Planting of Brazil's second corn crop reached 82%, compared with 92% a year earlier. While corn plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 94%, just shy of the 96% pace from a year ago. Brazilian farmers h

Tidbits January crush numbers  were reported by the USDA after the close yesterday. Corn crush was 505 million bushels, down 2% from a year ago; 461 million bushels of corn were crushed for ethanol, down 1% from a year ago, crush numbers were better than we expected, given the January weather in the Corn Belt. The January weather probably had something to do with the amount of corn crushed for beverage alcohol at 3.47 million bushels, up 22% from January 2025. The soybean cru

Tidbits Four years ago today the war between Russia and Ukraine began. After being invaded by Hitler’s Germany in June 1941, the Soviet Union defeated Germany in 3 years and 11 months. After Japan destroyed most of the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, the U.S. defeated Imperial Japan in 3 years and 8 months. Wars just are not fought to win any more. That is why the Vietnam War lasted 13 years and Afghanistan was a 20 year war. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announ

Tidbits Soy Crush: The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported its members crushed 221.654 million bushels of soybeans in January 2026, up 10.6% from a year ago. The market expected a January crush of 218.52 million bushels. The crush was down 1.5% from December because of the cold weather. Soy oil stocks at the end of January were 1.9 billion pounds versus 1.71 billion expected. The USDA will report their version of the January crush on the first business day

Tidbits The USDA  will issue its February S&D today at 11 AM central time. We do not expect any surprises, but nothing in this business is 100%. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 264,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. Farmers in Brazil  have harvested 16.55% of the area planted with soy for the 2025/26 season, above the 9.84% harvested this time last year, consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday. Brazil 2025/26 soy harvest sales at

Tidbits India & Oils: President Trump announced yesterday the U.S. and India have reached a trade agreement and will begin lowering tariffs on each other’s goods immediately. The U.S. will cut its reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 18% and India will “move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers against the United States to zero.” Trump wrote on Truth Social that India also committed to buy American goods “at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 billi

Tidbits Basis:  Poet at Fairbank, Iowa weakened their corn basis by 5¢ yesterday. Corning, Iowa Poet firmed their basis 2¢. Many corn river bids were 2 to 3¢ firmer. Cargill weakened their soybean basis in Sioux City, Iowa by 5¢ to -35H, but firmed their bean basis in Sidney, Ohio by 18¢ to +10H. ADM in Des Moines, Iowa firmed their bean basis by 5¢ to -30H.   A U.S. government shutdown  is possible by the end of the week, which could impact the bridge payments expected in Fe

Tidbits Exports: Yesterday morning, the USDA reported sales of 190,000 mts of old crop soybean meal to the Philippines. News sources indicate China has likely reached its 12 million mts commitment of U.S. soybeans purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year, and that further purchases are unlikely until September unless prices are competitive with South American soybean prices. Most of the volume is heading for reserves and is 47% fewer than China bought in 2024/25. The USDA pur

USDA's S&D Highlights The highlights of yesterday’s USDA data were: Corn yield: 186.5, 1.2 bushels above the highest  pre-report estimate.     Corn production was 294 million bushels more than the highest  estimate. Corn harvested acres: 900,000 more than the highest estimate with an increase of 1.22 million in January after an increase of 1.38 million in September after a 1.93 million increase  in August. Corn world carryover was 7.91 million mts more than the highest estima

Tidbits During Friday’s session, CBOT wheat futures put in new contract lows, and then bounced back to close exactly equal to the opening prices. People who know a lot more about technical analysis than we do said this creates a “dragonfly doji” pattern on the daily price chart. Investopedia.com states, “The dragonfly doji is a Japanese candlestick pattern that signals potential market reversal and reflects investor decisions.” It is a minor signal, but yesterday’s market ac

Tidbits There was no reasonable explanation for corn, beans and wheat to be smartly lower yesterday. Crude was up more than a dollar early in the day. Corn export inspections for Christmas week were less than previous week, which is to be expected, but were 47% more than a year ago. Soybean export inspections were 54% less and wheat inspections were 11% less than a year ago. Also, the USDA announced the sale of 100,000 mts of old crop soybeans to Egypt. Grain markets will clo

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 330,000 mts of old crop soybeans and 66,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. The ag markets  will close at 12:05 PM Central tomorrow and reopen at 8:30 AM Central the day after Christmas. January options expire on Friday. Long January futures and basis contracts need to be liquidated or rolled by the close of business Tuesday, 30 December. CBOT prices  were higher yesterday and the basis for corn and bean

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 150,320 mts of old crop corn to unknown 136,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China Soybeans: All eyes yesterday were on January soybeans as its price traded into the 27 October gap on the daily chart by 3¼¢, reducing the gap to 4¢. January beans settled 1½¢ above the top of the gap (which is friendly), but down 5¢ on the day. Yesterday’s NOPA crush was lower than expected at 216.041 million bushels but was

Tidbits December S&D  will be released by the USDA today at 10 AM Mountain Time. In past years, the USDA never changed the yields on the December report, but some analysts expect there may be a yield adjustment this year because of the government shutdown. We doubt it, but it would be logical to have an adjustment since we did not get one in October. Farm aid: USDA announced that $11 billion of “bridge money” will be paid to farmers no later than 28 February 2026 and farmers

Tidbits OPEC+  agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 at its meetings on Sunday as the group slows down its push to regain market share amid fears of a looming supply glut. The U.S. Manufacturing  PMI by S&P showed continued expansion in November, with a reading of 52.2, from 52.5 in October and well above 50, indicating sector growth for a fourth consecutive month; the index suggests slow improvement in operating conditions, driven by a str