BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Soybeans: Gaurav Kochar is a trader of cash commodities based in India. He reported yesterday a major shift in the world soybean market as India cancelled 25,000 mts of soymeal export contracts and bought 80,000 mts of soybean to import from Africa. It was 5 years ago the last time India imported soybeans. While India is not a big player in the world soybean market, when any world market player goes from an exporter to an importer, it changes the market significantly.

Tidbits Market Comment: The CBOT markets were very disappointed last Thursday and Friday with the news from the Trump-Xi meeting. Essentially, there was no new news for corn, wheat, and soybean exports to China, which had already agreed in October to buy 25 million mts of U.S. soybeans in each of the next three marketing years beginning 1 September 2026. Given the price relationship of South American soybeans compared to U.S. soybeans, and China’s huge stockpile and productio

Tidbits The USDA will release its May S&D at 11 AM Central today, which will include the first of 36 monthly estimates for the 2026/27 crops. Flash Sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 220,000 mts of old crop corn, 160,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico and 128,000 mts of old crop to South Korea. China’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.2% in April 2026 from 1% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 0.8%. President Trump will arrive in Chi

Tidbits The U.S. and Iran launched new attacks yesterday as they fought for control of the Strait of Hormuz. Several merchant ships in the Persian Gulf reported explosions or fires. The U.S. said it had destroyed six small Iranian military boats. Iran attacked and set ablaze a large U.S. military base and oil port in the United Arab Emirates. Crude oil futures were up $4.48 yesterday. U.S. and China tensions took a turn for the worse over the weekend as Bloomberg reported tha

Tidbits Tomorrow is the last trading day before delivery notices are posted for May futures. That usually means prices yesterday and today would be lower because all long May futures positions and basis contracts must be rolled or liquidated before the close Wednesday. Soy crush margins moved to fresh all-time highs at $3.52 per bushel, with bean oil contributing 52% of the value, which is still a historically high ratio. Soybean oil (and cotton) reached new highs last week.

Tidbits Brazil: Pátria Agronegócios is a consulting service for the soybean and corn markets based in Goiania, Goias, Brazil. Their weather comments yesterday: “Forecasts indicate dry weather over the next 15 days in key regions such as Goiás, Minas Gerais, and northern São Paulo. This raises an important alert, especially since about 40% of the second crop was planted outside the ideal window. On the other hand, Mato Grosso has crops in excellent condition, which limits any

Tidbits OPEC has lowered its world oil demand forecast for the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day to 105.07 million bpd, citing the economic impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported. AAA lists the national average gasoline price at $4.12, up from $3.63 a month ago and $3.18 a year ago. The national average diesel price at $5.65, up from $4.89 a month ago and $3.59 a year ago. Biofuel & Oils: Palm oil is the most plentiful vegetable oil, which is

Tidbits Budgeting: Progressive Farmer reported that President Donald Trump’s proposed budget for USDA again calls for making a nearly 20% cut to discretionary programs. The top line for the president’s budget released Friday is a $1.5 trillion request for Defense spending, while proposing to cut about $660 billion in non-military spending across the federal government. U.S. agriculture equipment maker Deere on ​Monday agreed to pay $99 million into a settlement fund for ‌ far

Tidbits Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks reports will be released by the USDA today at 11 AM Central. Here is the May futures price change on the reports release days in previous years:

Highlights: Iran Shortly after 6 AM Central time yesterday morning, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran and the U.S. had engaged in “good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution” of the hostilities. Consequently, Trump wrote that he had ordered the Department of War to postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. That sent crude oil down $10 and CBOT markets went from smartly higher to low

Tidbits Soybeans & China: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview yesterday morning that the Sunday and Monday talks with China in Paris had been ‘very good,’ adding that the U.S. continues to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing. However, President Trump said his meeting with China’s President Xi planned to begin on 31 March may be postponed due to “logistical” problems. We take that to mean he is too busy with Iran and crude oil flow. The soybean market

Tidbits The USDA will issue its March S&D at 11 AM Central time today. There were new contract highs in the soy complex and also in a few deferred corn futures months amid crude oil spikes. AgRural reports Brazil’s first corn harvest hit 42%, lagging the 54% seen a year earlier. Planting of Brazil's second corn crop reached 82%, compared with 92% a year earlier. While corn plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 94%, just shy of the 96% pace from a year ago. Brazilian farmers h

Tidbits January crush numbers were reported by the USDA after the close yesterday. Corn crush was 505 million bushels, down 2% from a year ago; 461 million bushels of corn were crushed for ethanol, down 1% from a year ago, crush numbers were better than we expected, given the January weather in the Corn Belt. The January weather probably had something to do with the amount of corn crushed for beverage alcohol at 3.47 million bushels, up 22% from January 2025. The soybean crus

Tidbits Four years ago today the war between Russia and Ukraine began. After being invaded by Hitler’s Germany in June 1941, the Soviet Union defeated Germany in 3 years and 11 months. After Japan destroyed most of the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, the U.S. defeated Imperial Japan in 3 years and 8 months. Wars just are not fought to win any more. That is why the Vietnam War lasted 13 years and Afghanistan was a 20 year war. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announ

Tidbits Soy Crush: The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported its members crushed 221.654 million bushels of soybeans in January 2026, up 10.6% from a year ago. The market expected a January crush of 218.52 million bushels. The crush was down 1.5% from December because of the cold weather. Soy oil stocks at the end of January were 1.9 billion pounds versus 1.71 billion expected. The USDA will report their version of the January crush on the first business day

Tidbits The USDA will issue its February S&D today at 11 AM central time. We do not expect any surprises, but nothing in this business is 100%. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 264,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. Farmers in Brazil have harvested 16.55% of the area planted with soy for the 2025/26 season, above the 9.84% harvested this time last year, consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday. Brazil 2025/26 soy harvest sales at 33

Tidbits India & Oils: President Trump announced yesterday the U.S. and India have reached a trade agreement and will begin lowering tariffs on each other’s goods immediately. The U.S. will cut its reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 18% and India will “move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers against the United States to zero.” Trump wrote on Truth Social that India also committed to buy American goods “at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 billi

Tidbits Basis: Poet at Fairbank, Iowa weakened their corn basis by 5¢ yesterday. Corning, Iowa Poet firmed their basis 2¢. Many corn river bids were 2 to 3¢ firmer. Cargill weakened their soybean basis in Sioux City, Iowa by 5¢ to -35H, but firmed their bean basis in Sidney, Ohio by 18¢ to +10H. ADM in Des Moines, Iowa firmed their bean basis by 5¢ to -30H. A U.S. government shutdown is possible by the end of the week, which could impact the bridge payments expected in Febr

Tidbits Exports: Yesterday morning, the USDA reported sales of 190,000 mts of old crop soybean meal to the Philippines. News sources indicate China has likely reached its 12 million mts commitment of U.S. soybeans purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year, and that further purchases are unlikely until September unless prices are competitive with South American soybean prices. Most of the volume is heading for reserves and is 47% fewer than China bought in 2024/25. The USDA pur

USDA's S&D Highlights The highlights of yesterday’s USDA data were: Corn yield: 186.5, 1.2 bushels above the highest pre-report estimate. Corn production was 294 million bushels more than the highest estimate. Corn harvested acres: 900,000 more than the highest estimate with an increase of 1.22 million in January after an increase of 1.38 million in September after a 1.93 million increase in August. Corn world carryover was 7.91 million mts more than the highest estimate.