Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Iran: U.S. President Donald Trump officially notified Congress of the resumption of hostilities in Iran. Crude oil prices rose significantly again, to about $80. Trump also announced that the U.S. would impose a 20% tax on all cargo transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, for its part, declared that it would not allow the U.S. to interfere with the management of the Strait of Hormuz and would treat it as closed. Flash sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the s

Tidbits Super Typhoon Bavi’s near world record low barometric pressure captured the world headlines Monday morning as weather services connected the low pressure to the strong El Niño and global warming. Then pointed out the El Niño will continue to strengthen into December and January and exaggerated the potential worldwide crop production problems. The strength at the CBOT yesterday was all because of the “hype” and not because of any serious immediate crop problems. There

Tidbits Today at 11 AM Central, the USDA will release its Actual Planted acres and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports. The USDA reported total corn disappearance from 1 December 2025 to 1 March 2026 was 4.258 billion bushels, up 350 million bushels from a year ago. Winter demand is always more than warmer weather demand. The market expects corn disappearance from 1 March to 1 June 2026 to be 3.632 billion bushels, up 128 million bushels from a year ago. Export inspections for the

Tidbits Brazil: Safras & Mercado lowered their Brazilian corn production forecast 200,000 mts to 139.9 million mts, still slightly above the USDA estimate of 138 million mts. IMEA reports the 2nd corn harvest in Mato Grosso has reached 21% vs. only 14% a year ago, however behind the historical average of 23%. AgRural reports that across Brazil 2nd crop harvest has reached 16% just above the year ago pace of 13%. Argentine corn harvest has reached 48% while the Buenos Aires Gr

Market Comment The grain futures will not trade this Friday, 19 June for Juneteenth Day. After this week’s three day weekend, two weeks later will be another three day weekend with the 4th of July. July grain options expire on 26 June, that is a week from this Friday. Long July futures and basis contracts must be rolled or cashed out by the close of business on Monday 29 June. Your grain merchandiser may have house rules that require July basis contracts rolled or liquidated

Tidbits July corn traded down to $4.12½ yesterday morning, but settled 6¼¢ above the low and up 1¼¢ for the day. A new low followed by a higher daily settlement is a “hook reversal” and a noteworthy technical trend change signal. While it is not as reliable a trend changer as a “key reversal,” we will take it. The settlement 6¼¢ above the low is very significant. Corn basis firmed again Monday and we expect it will continue to firm until futures rally at least 20 to 30¢ to mo

Tidbits Soybeans: Gaurav Kochar is a trader of cash commodities based in India. He reported yesterday a major shift in the world soybean market as India cancelled 25,000 mts of soymeal export contracts and bought 80,000 mts of soybean to import from Africa. It was 5 years ago the last time India imported soybeans. While India is not a big player in the world soybean market, when any world market player goes from an exporter to an importer, it changes the market significantly.

Tidbits Market Comment: The CBOT markets were very disappointed last Thursday and Friday with the news from the Trump-Xi meeting. Essentially, there was no new news for corn, wheat, and soybean exports to China, which had already agreed in October to buy 25 million mts of U.S. soybeans in each of the next three marketing years beginning 1 September 2026. Given the price relationship of South American soybeans compared to U.S. soybeans, and China’s huge stockpile and productio

Tidbits The USDA will release its May S&D at 11 AM Central today, which will include the first of 36 monthly estimates for the 2026/27 crops. Flash Sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 220,000 mts of old crop corn, 160,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico and 128,000 mts of old crop to South Korea. China’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.2% in April 2026 from 1% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 0.8%. President Trump will arrive in Chi

Tidbits The U.S. and Iran launched new attacks yesterday as they fought for control of the Strait of Hormuz. Several merchant ships in the Persian Gulf reported explosions or fires. The U.S. said it had destroyed six small Iranian military boats. Iran attacked and set ablaze a large U.S. military base and oil port in the United Arab Emirates. Crude oil futures were up $4.48 yesterday. U.S. and China tensions took a turn for the worse over the weekend as Bloomberg reported tha

Tidbits Tomorrow is the last trading day before delivery notices are posted for May futures. That usually means prices yesterday and today would be lower because all long May futures positions and basis contracts must be rolled or liquidated before the close Wednesday. Soy crush margins moved to fresh all-time highs at $3.52 per bushel, with bean oil contributing 52% of the value, which is still a historically high ratio. Soybean oil (and cotton) reached new highs last week.

Tidbits Brazil: Pátria Agronegócios is a consulting service for the soybean and corn markets based in Goiania, Goias, Brazil. Their weather comments yesterday: “Forecasts indicate dry weather over the next 15 days in key regions such as Goiás, Minas Gerais, and northern São Paulo. This raises an important alert, especially since about 40% of the second crop was planted outside the ideal window. On the other hand, Mato Grosso has crops in excellent condition, which limits any

Tidbits OPEC has lowered its world oil demand forecast for the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day to 105.07 million bpd, citing the economic impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported. AAA lists the national average gasoline price at $4.12, up from $3.63 a month ago and $3.18 a year ago. The national average diesel price at $5.65, up from $4.89 a month ago and $3.59 a year ago. Biofuel & Oils: Palm oil is the most plentiful vegetable oil, which is

Tidbits Budgeting: Progressive Farmer reported that President Donald Trump’s proposed budget for USDA again calls for making a nearly 20% cut to discretionary programs. The top line for the president’s budget released Friday is a $1.5 trillion request for Defense spending, while proposing to cut about $660 billion in non-military spending across the federal government. U.S. agriculture equipment maker Deere on ​Monday agreed to pay $99 million into a settlement fund for ‌ far

Tidbits Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks reports will be released by the USDA today at 11 AM Central. Here is the May futures price change on the reports release days in previous years:

Highlights: Iran Shortly after 6 AM Central time yesterday morning, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran and the U.S. had engaged in “good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution” of the hostilities. Consequently, Trump wrote that he had ordered the Department of War to postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. That sent crude oil down $10 and CBOT markets went from smartly higher to low

Tidbits Soybeans & China: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview yesterday morning that the Sunday and Monday talks with China in Paris had been ‘very good,’ adding that the U.S. continues to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing. However, President Trump said his meeting with China’s President Xi planned to begin on 31 March may be postponed due to “logistical” problems. We take that to mean he is too busy with Iran and crude oil flow. The soybean market

Tidbits The USDA will issue its March S&D at 11 AM Central time today. There were new contract highs in the soy complex and also in a few deferred corn futures months amid crude oil spikes. AgRural reports Brazil’s first corn harvest hit 42%, lagging the 54% seen a year earlier. Planting of Brazil's second corn crop reached 82%, compared with 92% a year earlier. While corn plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 94%, just shy of the 96% pace from a year ago. Brazilian farmers h

Tidbits January crush numbers were reported by the USDA after the close yesterday. Corn crush was 505 million bushels, down 2% from a year ago; 461 million bushels of corn were crushed for ethanol, down 1% from a year ago, crush numbers were better than we expected, given the January weather in the Corn Belt. The January weather probably had something to do with the amount of corn crushed for beverage alcohol at 3.47 million bushels, up 22% from January 2025. The soybean crus

Tidbits Four years ago today the war between Russia and Ukraine began. After being invaded by Hitler’s Germany in June 1941, the Soviet Union defeated Germany in 3 years and 11 months. After Japan destroyed most of the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, the U.S. defeated Imperial Japan in 3 years and 8 months. Wars just are not fought to win any more. That is why the Vietnam War lasted 13 years and Afghanistan was a 20 year war. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announ