BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits All December  basis contracts and long December futures positions need to be liquidated or rolled  before the close tomorrow to avoid the chance of being assigned delivery from the CBOT.   Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 123,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China, which now has purchased 16.2% of the agreed 12 million mts by the end of January.   USDA’s final Crop Progress  report for the week ending November 23 shows corn harvesting nearly

Tidbits Soy Meal: A 30,000 mts cargo of Argentine soybean meal has cleared Chinese customs, marking the first shipment since Beijing allowed imports in 2019 and signaling a new trade channel with the world’s top soymeal exporter.   USDA’s Crop Progress  for the week ending November 16 had corn harvested at 91% (vs 94% five-year avg; 98% last year) and soybeans harvested at 95% (vs 96% five-year avg; 98% last year). Winter wheat is 92% planted (95% five-year avg; 94% last year

Tidbits U.S. harvest  of soybeans was estimated 96% complete by a Reuters poll (last week 91%) and corn 92% complete (last week 83%). Winter wheat planting was about 95% complete, up from 91% last week, and 52% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week. U.S. imports  of containerized goods declined 7.5% year-over-year in October, with shipments from China dropping 16.3% as importers tempered expectations amid evolving tariff policies. Chin

Tidbits The price of U.S. beans at the Gulf plus freight to China was $496 per mt on Friday, while beans from Brazil plus freight to China were $494. Monday evening, Gulf beans plus freight to China were $510 and Brazil beans were $492. China reportedly bought seven Panamax shiploads of U.S. soybeans last week, the first U.S. beans to China this year. Over the weekend, China bought 20 shiploads of beans from Brazil. Thus, China has bought about 420,000 mts of U.S. beans and h

Tidbits China bought 20 shiploads of Brazil’s soybeans over the weekend.   Bloomberg reported that China is seeking U.S. wheat offers for December through February shipment. That supported corn yesterday. The U.S. will suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels starting November 10 as part of deescalating maritime tensions, Bloomberg reports. The White House says the pause of measures aimed at countering China’s shipping dominance will last one year while the U.S. n

Tidbits December oats  settled 12 cents lower Monday. Oats are a feed grain and so is corn. Oats knows! Сrop progress estimates  were released by Reuters as of 10/26/25: the corn harvest is estimated at 72% with a range of 67-80%, soybean harvest at 84% complete with a range of 80-88%, and winter wheat planting 84% complete with a range of 81-89%. Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean yield estimates unchanged at 181 bpa and 52 bpa respectively. He projects th

Tidbits Tariffs: The Trump administration began easing tariff policies, making exceptions for goods that cannot be produced, mined, or grown in the USA. The list of exemptions includes gold, LEDs, chemicals, metals, and even aircraft parts. The tariff relief is related to an upcoming Supreme Court case that may declare some duties illegal. Now the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative will be able to independently approve tariff relief, which will speed up

Tidbits With the Chinese and U.S. trade relationship going down the toilet on Friday and nothing concrete since then, it was quite surprising soybean futures were 1½¢ higher yesterday while corn and wheat settled down 1 to 2¢.   An Indian trade  delegation will visit the United States this week as Washington and New Delhi push to finalize a bilateral deal by the fall deadline. India is seeking to increase U.S. natural gas purchases as part of the talks, which previously inclu

Tidbits Quarterly Grain Stocks  (inventory) Report will be released today at 11 AM Central by the USDA. It will state the amount of all commodities in the U.S. as of 1 September 2025. The 2025 small grains production final (until possibly January) will also be issued. Small grains include all classes of wheat, oats, barley, and rye. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 135,660 mts of old crop corn to Mexico and 110,668 mts of old crop corn to unknown.

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 320,068 mts of 2025 crop corn sold to Mexico. Screwworm: Mexico confirmed a new case of New World Screwworm less than 70 miles from the U.S. border, the nearest detection to date. This species of screwworm is so dangerous because its maggots eat living flesh whereas other maggots eat only dead flesh. Argentina has removed export taxes on all grains until October 31, plus beef and poultry, to boost foreign sa

Tidbits On June 23, crude oil  prices plummeted over 6%, after Iran launched a missile attack on the U.S. military base at Al Udeid in Qatar in retaliation for U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, which had initially pushed Brent to a five-month high. Iran’s attack, which Iran’s officials linked to the broader escalation following U.S. and Israeli actions, did not disrupt oil or gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and Qatar Energy reported no i

Highlights Bio Fuel consultant, Corey Lavinsky, reports the Senate's proposed changes to the 45Z clean fuel  credit have been released &...

Tidbits The USDA reported the crush numbers for April after the close yesterday. The soybean crush was 202 million bushels. That is 13.5% more beans crushed this past April than April 2024! The canola crush was 161,022 tons, down 14.6% from a year ago. Cottonseed once refined was 24.7 million lbs, down 12%. The April corn crush was 475 million bushels, up 1% from a year ago. Corn for ethanol was also up 1% at 426 million bushels. In April, Canadian canola  crushing was 0.92 m

Tidbits Corn planting progress  is now at 87% vs 85% 5-year average. Corn crop conditions were rated at 68% good or excellent vs 75% this time last year. Soybean planting progress is now at 76% vs 68% 5-year average. Winter wheat сonditions were rated 50% good or excellent. Dr. Michael Cordonnier reduced his Argentine soybean forecast by 1.5 million mts to 48.5 million mts (USDA 49) due to flooding, while maintaining his Argentine corn estimate at 50 million mts (USDA 50), as

Tidbits Late morning yesterday, President Trump issued this press release: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 145,000 mts of soybean meal to the Philippines.   Goldman Sachs has increased its global oil demand  forecast but maintained its oil price forecast at $60 per barrel of Brent crude and $56 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate, despite current trading values exceeding those projections.

Highlights The U.S. and China trade agreement details announced yesterday morning: A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Both Countries dropped their tariff rates by 115 percent points. The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduced from 145% to 30%. China’s tariffs on U.S. goods will be 10%, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 91% removed. China removed all non-tariff countermeasures (all “lame” excuses like quotas, phyto-sanitary restrictions, etc.) China sent their deputy minist

Tidbits There were two major factors that crushed the corn market yesterday: A weather forecast which will allow most of the nation’s remaining 60% corn acres to be planted in the next 10 days and the market’s conclusion that Brazil’s safrinha crop will be a bin buster because April rainfall was more than it was last year. The market ignored that the dry season has started for the safrinha corn and 40% of it was planted after the ideal planting window closed on 22 February an

Tidbits Today is the day to liquidate all May long futures positions and basis contracts to avoid any chance of delivery on May futures.  Both classes of winter wheat made new contract lows in the new crop contracts yesterday. New crop spring wheat traded within 5¢ of its contract low and settled 8¢ above the 28 March low.  Wheat used to trade inversely of the dollar index, but not this spring. The dollar index is down 11% from its 13 January high and just 1% above its low ma

Tidbits China made several announcements yesterday which show they are going to advance their effort to counter the U.S. trade actions that are forcing China to the negotiation table. China will convene an informal U.N. Security Council meeting on April 23 to accuse Washington of bullying and weaponizing tariffs, according to a document that outlines the key elements of a proposed project, initiative, or program at the United Nations. All 193 U.N. members are invited to atten

Tidbits The markets will be closed on 18 April, Good Friday. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to Japan. USDA's second Crop Progress  report had spring wheat now at 7% planted, corn at 4%, soybean at 2%. Winter wheat conditions fell slightly to 47% good or excellent. The USDA on Monday said it had canceled a $3 billion program for climate-smart farming  projects after a review found it did not align with the priorities of the Trump