BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Tariffs: The Trump administration began easing tariff policies, making exceptions for goods that cannot be produced, mined, or grown in the USA. The list of exemptions includes gold, LEDs, chemicals, metals, and even aircraft parts. The tariff relief is related to an upcoming Supreme Court case that may declare some duties illegal. Now the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative will be able to independently approve tariff relief, which will speed up

Tidbits With the Chinese and U.S. trade relationship going down the toilet on Friday and nothing concrete since then, it was quite surprising soybean futures were 1½¢ higher yesterday while corn and wheat settled down 1 to 2¢.   An Indian trade  delegation will visit the United States this week as Washington and New Delhi push to finalize a bilateral deal by the fall deadline. India is seeking to increase U.S. natural gas purchases as part of the talks, which previously inclu

Tidbits Quarterly Grain Stocks  (inventory) Report will be released today at 11 AM Central by the USDA. It will state the amount of all commodities in the U.S. as of 1 September 2025. The 2025 small grains production final (until possibly January) will also be issued. Small grains include all classes of wheat, oats, barley, and rye. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 135,660 mts of old crop corn to Mexico and 110,668 mts of old crop corn to unknown.

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 320,068 mts of 2025 crop corn sold to Mexico. Screwworm: Mexico confirmed a new case of New World Screwworm less than 70 miles from the U.S. border, the nearest detection to date. This species of screwworm is so dangerous because its maggots eat living flesh whereas other maggots eat only dead flesh. Argentina has removed export taxes on all grains until October 31, plus beef and poultry, to boost foreign sa

Tidbits On June 23, crude oil  prices plummeted over 6%, after Iran launched a missile attack on the U.S. military base at Al Udeid in Qatar in retaliation for U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, which had initially pushed Brent to a five-month high. Iran’s attack, which Iran’s officials linked to the broader escalation following U.S. and Israeli actions, did not disrupt oil or gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and Qatar Energy reported no i

Highlights Bio Fuel consultant, Corey Lavinsky, reports the Senate's proposed changes to the 45Z clean fuel  credit have been released &...

Tidbits The USDA reported the crush numbers for April after the close yesterday. The soybean crush was 202 million bushels. That is 13.5% more beans crushed this past April than April 2024! The canola crush was 161,022 tons, down 14.6% from a year ago. Cottonseed once refined was 24.7 million lbs, down 12%. The April corn crush was 475 million bushels, up 1% from a year ago. Corn for ethanol was also up 1% at 426 million bushels. In April, Canadian canola  crushing was 0.92 m

Tidbits Corn planting progress  is now at 87% vs 85% 5-year average. Corn crop conditions were rated at 68% good or excellent vs 75% this time last year. Soybean planting progress is now at 76% vs 68% 5-year average. Winter wheat сonditions were rated 50% good or excellent. Dr. Michael Cordonnier reduced his Argentine soybean forecast by 1.5 million mts to 48.5 million mts (USDA 49) due to flooding, while maintaining his Argentine corn estimate at 50 million mts (USDA 50), as

Tidbits Late morning yesterday, President Trump issued this press release: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 145,000 mts of soybean meal to the Philippines.   Goldman Sachs has increased its global oil demand  forecast but maintained its oil price forecast at $60 per barrel of Brent crude and $56 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate, despite current trading values exceeding those projections.

Highlights The U.S. and China trade agreement details announced yesterday morning: A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Both Countries dropped their tariff rates by 115 percent points. The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduced from 145% to 30%. China’s tariffs on U.S. goods will be 10%, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 91% removed. China removed all non-tariff countermeasures (all “lame” excuses like quotas, phyto-sanitary restrictions, etc.) China sent their deputy minist

Tidbits There were two major factors that crushed the corn market yesterday: A weather forecast which will allow most of the nation’s remaining 60% corn acres to be planted in the next 10 days and the market’s conclusion that Brazil’s safrinha crop will be a bin buster because April rainfall was more than it was last year. The market ignored that the dry season has started for the safrinha corn and 40% of it was planted after the ideal planting window closed on 22 February an

Tidbits Today is the day to liquidate all May long futures positions and basis contracts to avoid any chance of delivery on May futures.  Both classes of winter wheat made new contract lows in the new crop contracts yesterday. New crop spring wheat traded within 5¢ of its contract low and settled 8¢ above the 28 March low.  Wheat used to trade inversely of the dollar index, but not this spring. The dollar index is down 11% from its 13 January high and just 1% above its low ma

Tidbits China made several announcements yesterday which show they are going to advance their effort to counter the U.S. trade actions that are forcing China to the negotiation table. China will convene an informal U.N. Security Council meeting on April 23 to accuse Washington of bullying and weaponizing tariffs, according to a document that outlines the key elements of a proposed project, initiative, or program at the United Nations. All 193 U.N. members are invited to atten

Tidbits The markets will be closed on 18 April, Good Friday. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to Japan. USDA's second Crop Progress  report had spring wheat now at 7% planted, corn at 4%, soybean at 2%. Winter wheat conditions fell slightly to 47% good or excellent. The USDA on Monday said it had canceled a $3 billion program for climate-smart farming  projects after a review found it did not align with the priorities of the Trump

Highlights The October Census Bureau crush was reported after the close yesterday and it was an all-time record high for any month. The US has never crushed 200 mil bu of beans in one month until October 2023. The soybean crush was 201.4 mil. bu., a bit above the market’s expectation of 201.1 mil bu. and well above the 197 mil. bu. a year ago.   Soybean oil stocks were expected to be 1.540 billion lbs, but soy oil stocks were just 1.082 bil. lbs. Nobody has ever reported an e

Highlights The Nation’s corn crop is 71% harvested, 1% more than the high end of the 3% range. That is 5% ahead of the 5-year average pace. The beans are 85% harvested; the market range of expectations was 82 to 85%. That is 7% ahead of the average progress for this date. Cotton is 49% harvested, 2% behind the normal harvest pace. Sorghum 69% harvested, 1% behind the normal harvest pace. Sugar beets are 84% harvested, 3% ahead of the normal harvest pace. Winter wheat is

November CBOT options expire Friday. From far west Iowa, a little closer to Sioux City than Omaha, Andrew reported Saturday evening: "Finished 2500 acres of beans with an average of 57 bpa. We had about 1300 acres of irrigated beans out of the 2500. We are disappointed with the yield overall. Started corn yesterday and the first field made right at 100 bpa. 89 bushels under aph and 147 bushels less than last year right across the road on identical soil. Dryland corn is ugly

Highlights Crop progress: The nation’s corn crop is 45% harvested, 3% ahead of the 5 year average; the market expected 46%. The beans are 62% harvested, 10% ahead of the average; market expected 57%. Cotton is 33% harvested, 1% ahead of the normal harvest pace. Winter wheat is 68% planted, a perfectly normal pace. You can access all the crop condition and state by state progress at grainstats.com The NOPA September soybean crush was reported midday yesterday to be 165.456 mi

Highlights USDA issues an Export Inspections Report the first business day of every week which reports the amounts of commodities loaded on a ship, train, or truck, ready to leave the USA. The soybean export inspections were the market shocker yesterday morning when reported to be 1.643 million mts, double the high end of the range of expectations. That was later corrected to 1.036 million mts. While the reduction was disappointing, there were still way more beans exported t

Highlights The Weekly Crop Condition Report was a shocker to the market. The market expected the nation’s corn crop to be 67% good or excellent, down 2% from last week, but it was down 5% from last week at 64% good or excellent. This year’s corn crop is rated 9% lower in the good to excellent categories than a year ago this date. Last year’s crop yielded 173 bushels and USDA projects this year’s crop at 181.5, the trend yield. The market expected the first soybean crop rati