Tidbits, 45Z & Bean Oil, Corn Market, Crop Progress, ENSO, Export Inspections 6/17/25

Wright team
Jun 17
5 min read

Highlights

Bio Fuel consultant, Corey Lavinsky, reports the Senate's proposed changes to the 45Z clean fuel credit have been released & there are some changes from the House bill. However, like the House, the Senate wants to extend the biofuel credit to 2031 and limits financial incentives to those using foreign biofuel feedstocks.

Soybean oil was up the 3¢ per pound limit on Friday. Expanded limits of 4½¢ were in effect for Monday and July bean oil was up the limit again while the deferred months were not, but most were up more than 4¢.

Below is a chart of new crop and old crop corn USDA carryovers as of the June S&D for each year since 2019 with the high prices for the given calendar year. The carryover is in terms of the number of days' use it would last into the next marketing year.

You can see that corn is too cheap given the U.S. and world corn carryovers compared to the past 5 years. Both carryovers are trending smaller. Most analysts agree that U.S. corn exports will be increased by another 50 to 100 million bushels. Yesterday’s export inspections were almost 66 million bushels, a very strong export pace.

The latest National Weather Service forecast calls for above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall for the next two weeks in most of the Midwest. Many areas have been predicted to get rain, but have not received it and are dry. Of course, some are way too wet and some are just perfect. Most areas in the Corn Belt have very little subsoil moisture.

A big marketing decision needs to be made this week as the seasonal price trend turns lower this weekend. Is a great crop already priced in? What are the chances of 181 bushel yield on the largest planted acreage in 12 years when the best yield ever was just 179.3 last year on 3.5 million fewer acres? Despite the predicted big areas and big yield, the new crop carryover is smaller than 4 of the past 6 years. Perhaps the most important point is the very tight world carryout.

Tidbits

U.S. President Donald Trump is leaving the G7 summit earlier than planned, according to a statement from the White House press service, citing the situation in the Middle East as the reason. Trump has ordered the National Security Council to convene and be ready for a meeting in the White House Situation Room. In addition, Trump called on everyone to immediately leave the Iranian capital Tehran, as he wrote on his Truth Social social media page.

However, the crude oil market thinks the Israel and Iran war is about over. Rumors are that Iran has asked for mediation and the U.S. will provide Israel with "bunker buster" bombs.

CONAB (Brazil's USDA) raised its 2024/25 grain harvest forecast to a record 336.1 million mts, up 13% from 2023/24, driven by a 2.3% increase in planted area, good yields, and favorable weather. The soybean harvest reached a record 169.6 million mts (USDA 169), 15% more than last year, reaffirming Brazil as the world's top soybean producer and exporter. Conab also estimates a total corn crop of 128.3 million mts (USDA 131) for 2024/25, with the second crop at 101 million mts, up 12% from the previous season, benefiting from increased technology use and good weather conditions.

The Australian Department of Agriculture (ABARES) has lowered its canola production forecast for 2025/26, projecting an output of 5.7 million mts (USDA at 6.15), about 7.5% less than this season, primarily due to drought-induced lower yields. Exports are estimated at 4.6 million mts, 5% lower.

Karen Braun highlights that U.S. Crop Watch reports three consecutive weeks of improved corn health, with some areas still needing more heat and sun; pollination timing varies across July due to a broad planting window and cool post-planting temperatures, making forecasts uncertain.

June’s forecast remains mostly favorable, with warm weather and scattered rain showers supporting crops, though some producers highlight the need for rain.

The Crop Watch producers assign weekly condition scores to their corn and soybean fields using a scale of 1 to 5. The ratings are similar to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s system where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent.

Corn condition scores 3.82, surpassing last year's levels. Conversely, soybean conditions dropped to an all-time low of 3.18, with Ohio, North Dakota, and southeastern Illinois ranking at a 1 due to persistent wet and cool conditions.

Crop Progress highlights by Karen Braun:

The ENSO update continues to predict normal weather:

Export Inspections Tracker

Audio Version

Listen to the audio report

Market Data

Prices are as of 1:10 AM ET:

Crude oil is at $72.34, up $0.57

The dollar index is at 98.11, up 0.11

July palm oil is at 4,070 MYR, down 26. The contract high was made November, 11th 2024 at 4,576 MYR. Palm oil owns 61% and soybean oil owns 14% world market share.

July cotton is at $65.35, down $0.09 per cwt. The contract high was made April, 3rd 2024 at $85.63 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.

July natural gas is at $3.760, up 0.012. The contract high was made March, 10th 2025 at $5.233. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.

July ULSD is at $2.4161 per gallon, up 0.0228. The contract high was made January, 23rd 2023 at $2.6729. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.

June Dow Futures is at 42,377, down 160. The contract high was made December, 4th 2024 at 46,057.