Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 52,573, -841 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $99.99, +8.77. Dollar Index settled at 99.09, -0.07. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 3,507, -121. Corn December futures settled at $5.30¼, -6½¢ for the week. Basis (Z = D

Tidbits During the few minutes after the USDA numbers were released Friday, Dec corn gained 11¾¢, Nov beans gained 8¼¢, Dec KC wheat gained 5¼¢, and SRW wheat gained 13¢. The market reaction was definitely friendly. It was very disappointing to see all those market drift lower the rest of the day. In the few minutes after the numbers were released Friday: Dec corn traded to $5.41½, then settled at $5.30¼. Nov beans traded $13.19, then settled at $12.96½. Dec KC wheat traded

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sale of 264,000 mts of old crop corn to Mexico. Soy Crush & Exports: The total volume of soybean processing in the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil during the September–August 2025/26 marketing year reached a record high of 176.7 million mts, 5.2% higher from the previous year’s 167.9 million, according to Oil World from Germany. The U.S. crushed 72.1 million mts and 8.4% more compared to a year ago, Brazil at 61.76 million and

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral to Friendly Soybeans & Wheat CBOT 28 minutes after report: Dec corn +2 Nov beans -29 July CBOT wheat -14 July KC wheat -16 Sept Spring wheat -6 For no justifiable reason, all markets were sharply lower before the report was released. After the report was released, all markets jumped higher. Then faded after the report back to where they were before the report except corn.

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sales of old crop soybeans: 272,000 mts to China and 206,500 mts to unknown. Chinese purchases of U.S. beans have likely reached 13 million mts with Chinese leader Xi visiting Washington 2 weeks away. The market expects them to buy 25 million during the marketing year. South America: Brazilian September exports of soybean are expected to reach 7.74 million mts, up 11% from a year ago. Their corn exports are expected at onl

Tidbits Yesterday's price weakness for corn, wheat, and beans was a function of residual talk about a deal to get wheat out of Russia and Ukraine (all show, no doubt), fear of Friday’s USDA S&D (normal), and some long position holders taking profit. Early yesterday, soybean export trader with AgrInvest, Eduardo Vanin, said rumors that China had bought a million mts of U.S. soybeans. Later, USDA announced 440,000 mts of beans were booked for export. Maybe another big sale of b

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Presidents Putin and Trump had an hour long telephone conversation yesterday. It was strictly confidential, but was described as positive. Canada: The U.S. banned a broad swath of Canadian alcoholic beverages, motorcycles and dairy products from import on Tuesday, sharply escalating ​an already acrimonious trade spat. The import bans, which go into effect on September 29 and were published on the White House's website, came after Canada's own retaliatory tariffs on U.

Tidbits Wheat was higher in Europe on Monday. Saudi Arabia cancelled its 550,000 mts wheat tender because prices were too high. Russian Exports: Latvia's government plans to impose a ​300% tariff on grain arriving from ‌Russia and Belarus, the Baltic country's Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said on Monday. A ban or ‌high ⁠tariffs could cut off a key alternative at a time when Black Sea and Azov Sea routes have been ​paralysed by ​Ukrainian ⁠drone strikes. Andrey Sizov from So

Tidbits After meeting with President Putin Saturday, American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy and other top Ukrainian officials in Kyiv. Zelenskiy, who believes Washington will be key to ⁠any peace deal, has said a window of opportunity to make peace exists before the U.S. begins focusing on its next presidential election. "Security guarantees are needed. A dignified post-war peace is needed. Our proposals have been drawn u

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 53,414, -146 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $91.22, +7.78. Dollar Index settled at 99.16, -0.52. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 3,628, +442. Corn December futures settled at $5.36¾, +¼¢ for the week. Basis (Z = De

Tidbits Russian President Putin held more than three hours of "highly useful" talks on Saturday with Americans Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner seeking a deal to end the Ukraine war, a Kremlin aide said, but he gave no indication ‌of any breakthrough. Witkoff and Kushner are in Kyiv today to continue the discussion with Ukrainian authorities. Q&A: Marketing Strategy for Soybeans Jake asked on September first: With the rapid rise in crop prices over the last few weeks, I’m left

Tidbits The market action yesterday was very disappointing, especially in wheat and corn, after the beating those two commodities took the previous two days. But, as our client Jeff pointed out, yesterday’s lows were above Thursday’s lows in the corn, beans, and both winter wheats. That is technically significant. Wheat sits 10¢ above the support level from the July peak. The 14 day Relative Strength Index as of the close yesterday: Dec Corn: 70.06, the high for the week was

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 202,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. U.S. Crops: A farmer survey conducted by agricultural commodity brokerage and analysis firm Allendale forecast the U.S. 2026 corn crop at 15.833 billion bushels, with an average yield of 178.7 bushels per acre, which is below the USDA's outlook of 16.013 billion bushels and 180.7 yield. Their 2026 soybean crop forecast is at 4.515 billion bushels, with an average yield of 52.

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Iran & Oil: American forces resumed strikes against Iran yesterday, U.S. Central Command has said. In response, Iran launched attacks at U.S. military bases in Iraq and Jordan, according to local state media and the Jordanian Armed Forces. Attacks were also reported in Kuwait and Bahrain. Crude oil prices have surged again.

Tidbits Markets: After a very significant price rally in any month, it is normal that the last business day of the month becomes a profit taking day. The fund manager wants to make their month-end report to show locked-in profits. The Turkey initiative to get Black Sea grain moving into the world marketplace cast a negative spell, but unless Putin has a change of heart, this effort will die on the vine. Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 159,000 mts of old

Tidbits Turkey is discussing a plan to create a new grain corridor in the Black Sea. According to local media, Turkey has intensified diplomatic contacts with Russia and Ukraine. The Chamber of Maritime Commerce of Turkey confirmed that it held meetings at the Ministry of Transport, where they spoke of "intense discussions" regarding a new grain deal. However, no specific deadlines have been mentioned. We do not see any way this grain corridor will be created any time soon, b

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 53,560, +283 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $83.44, -3.20. Dollar Index settled at 99.68, +0.84. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 3,186, +345. Corn December futures settled at $5.36½, +27¾¢ for the week. Basis (Z =

Tidbits Biofuel: Tomorrow is the deadline for EPA to announce its decision for 2025 Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs). That does not mean a decision will be announced. Much bickering has transpired about the exemption applications because an exemption reduces the demand for ethanol. Trump is on record of favoring the exemptions to reduce the price of gas at the pump. Opponents of the exemption claim all the exemption does is pad the profits of refineries and reduce ethanol dem