BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Red Tape Removed: According to Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab, a government agency), annual grain production over the past 10 years has grown by an average of nearly 7%, while storage capacity has increased only 2.4%. Currently, Brazil has the capacity to store approximately 60% to 63% of its annual grain production, more than 130 million mts less than needed. That is why their cash prices are so low during harvest; there just is no place to put the grain exc

June S&D Yesterday’s USDA June S&D was about as expected except for the increase of South American corn crops. USDA increased old crop corn imports by 3 million bushels which carried through to the carryover. Old crop soybean exports were reduced by 20 million bushels, but the old crop soybean crush was increased the same 20 million bushels, which left the carryover unchanged at 340 million bushels, a 29 day supply. There was no change in the 2026 corn or bean production numb

Numbers were: Slightly Friendly Wheat Slightly Negative Corn due to increased world carryovers Neutral Soybeans 25 Minutes after the June S&D Was Issued: July Corn -3.5 Dec Corn -4 July Beans -8.5 Nov Beans -5 July SRW Wheat +1 July HRW Wheat +5 Sept HRS Wheat +2

Tidbits June S&D: At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its June S&D. It most likely will have very little impact on the markets. It is too early for USDA to change yields or acres for corn and beans. Wheat production could be interesting, but wheat harvest is just getting a good start. The demand side could see an increase in corn exports, a decrease in soybean exports with an increase in soybean crush. Will USDA reduce or increase the size of Brazil’s safrinha co

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown destinations. Yesterday’s corn market action was not nearly as bullish as we hoped after losing 38¢ in 13 days, a “hook reversal” on Monday, the crop ratings after the close Monday afternoon were not as good as the market expected, and another corn flash sale yesterday morning. None-the-less, there were some positive indicators yesterday for the corn market: The lead futures mont

Tidbits July corn traded down to $4.12½ yesterday morning, but settled 6¼¢ above the low and up 1¼¢ for the day. A new low followed by a higher daily settlement is a “hook reversal” and a noteworthy technical trend change signal. While it is not as reliable a trend changer as a “key reversal,” we will take it. The settlement 6¼¢ above the low is very significant. Corn basis firmed again Monday and we expect it will continue to firm until futures rally at least 20 to 30¢ to mo

Tidbits Weather: The 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day weather forecasts have shifted from hot and wet to cool and wet for the Midwest, typical El Niño weather. U.S. Jobs: U.S. average job gains in 2025: 10,000 a month. U.S. average job gains first five months of 2026: 114,000 a month.

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 50,867, -166 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $90.25, +2.49. Dollar Index settled at 100.07, +1.13. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,981, -243. Corn July futures settled at $4.17½, -29¼¢ for the week. December corn

Tidbits Brazilian AgrInvest Commodities reported on 6 June: The recent highlight is the change in the exchange rate, which has gained momentum and become the main variable of attention. The appreciation of the dollar improves export parity and may limit further declines in the domestic market, especially if combined with possible reactions in Chicago, firmer oil prices, or weather risks in the US. Thus, although the current scenario is still one of adjustment, the market is o

Tidbits The CBOT weakness this past week was a rough one to handle, but once the crop is planted, the price outlook in June is always about weather. The past seven days of weather forecasts included plenty of rain for the Corn Belt. We report to you the number of days with rain in the forecast for the next ten days for 12 locations across the Corn Belt. If all 12 locations expected rain in the ten-day forecast, the number of rain days would be 120! On 27 May, the number of ra

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 115,000 mts of new crop corn to Colombia. Biofuel: The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) filed a lawsuit Friday in the D.C. Circuit court challenging the 2026-2027 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes finalized by the EPA in March. The AFPM claims EPA’s “Set 2 rule” is the largest and most expensive RFS iteration in history and is the single most expensive regulation of President Trump’s second te

Tidbits New ‌World screwworm ​has been found and confirmed in a ​calf ​in Texas, the ‌USDA said ​on ​Wednesday ⁠evening, exposing ​the ​nation's ⁠cattle herd to ⁠a ​serious ​new threat. That screw worm contributed to yesterday’s late weakness in corn. The U.S. typically imports over a million cattle from Mexico every year. The import suspension contributed to rising beef prices by tightening the supply of beef cattle. An expansive U.S. outbreak would further tighten the suppl

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Tariffs & Trade: The Trump administration on Tuesday proposed imposing additional duties of 10% or ​12.5% on imports from 60 economies after determining their failures to curb trade in ‌goods made with forced labor are unreasonable and restrict U.S. commerce. The proposal from the U.S. Trade Representative's office is the latest finding from a Section 301 unfair trade practices investigation to be released as the Trump administration seeks to ​rebuild its emergency ta

Tidbits Renewable fuel credits for 2026 hit record levels on Thursday and continued their run on Friday, driven by stronger Environmental Protection ​Agency biofuel mandates and widening price gaps between biodiesel and conventional diesel. Credits ‌tied to biodiesel and renewable diesel blending, known as D4 ⁠Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), rose to a record $2.32 on Friday. Before the EPA's mandates were announced on March 27, they ​were trading at around $1.50. T

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 51,032, +453 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $87.76, -8.84. Dollar Index settled at 98.94, -0.38. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 3,224, +233. Corn July futures settled at $4.46¾, -16½¢ for the week. December corn s

Tidbits Farm bankruptcies hit a six-year high in April, showing growing financial stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter-12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 130% jump from April 2025 and the highest monthly total since February 2020. Chapter 12 bankruptcy is a specialized legal framework designed specifically for "family farmers" or "family fishermen". It allows financially distressed agricultural producers to reorganize their debts and avoid liquidation, offering a

Tidbits As we recently stated, corn and bean futures decline after the market gets comfortable that those crops will get planted. It is highly probable corn, beans, and wheat will see a gain 50% to 62% of what they have lost since 13 May. That is the standard technical retracement and profit-taking. The longest sunlight day of the year for the Corn Belt is three weeks from Monday. Soil moisture disappears very fast with 16 to 17 hours of daylight and warm to hot day time temp

Tidbits National Weather Service 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecasts predict much above normal temperatures with normal rainfall for the northern half of the U.S., as of last evening. China expects El Niño weather effects to peak in autumn and winter this year, before weakening in spring next year. Iran: A tentative 60-day ‘memorandum of understanding’ has been reached to extend the ceasefire and initiate nuclear negotiations with Iran, pending approval from President Trump. U.