BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits April WTI Crude Oil  futures opened at $75.00 last evening, up $7.98. In a matter of seconds, it traded to $75.33 and, within 15 minutes, it traded down to $71.04. Brent crude traded as high as $80 in over-the-counter trading Sunday.   The big move up is primarily on fears the Strait of Hormuz on the south end of the Persian Gulf may be closed or blocked. More than 20% of global crude oil and 33% of international fertilizer trade passes the Strait of Hormuz. Some ship

Tidbits Mexican drug cartels  declared war on the Mexican and U.S. governments after their drug lord, El Mencho, was killed in a joint Mexican-U.S. operation. It was 15 days ago that Mexico agreed to joint operation in Mexico with U.S. authorities and they succeeded in taking out a kingpin.   The drug cartel has declared war on the Mexican people in an attempt to motivate citizens to plead for the government to call off its persecution of the drug cartels. Many Mexican cities

Tidbits The Supreme Court’s decision that made a large portion of President Trump’s tariffs illegal will not have a direct impact on corn, wheat, and soybean prices. After all, Trump's tariffs are on imports into the U.S., not our exports.   Confusion and misinformation is often bearish, but Trump’s new 10% tariffs introduced on Friday afternoon will help stabilize all the markets. Those 10% tariffs will come into effect Tuesday and will be in place for 150 days, the White Ho

Tidbits Basis & FOB: Yesterday, we reported to you corn prices at New Orleans, Louisiana (NOLA) and corn at the Pacific Northwest (PNW) ports were the same FOB price, namely $220 per mt. We cannot remember a time when FOB in the PNW was equal to FOB at NOLA. The prices are the same this year because the cost of rail freight to the PNW from the Midwest is covered by the extremely weak basis in the Upper Midwest compared to the Eastern Corn Belt and river outlets coupled with t

Tidbits The Ag futures market will not trade again until Monday evening due to President's Day. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months and below forecasts of 2.5%. Soybeans Pricing Jake Hanley is the Chief Growth Officer and Director of Investments at Teucrium which provides Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in agricultural futures-based strategies as an investment opportuni

Tidbits Yesterday’s February S&D  increased 2025/26 U.S. corn exports, which reduced the marketing year carryover by ~5% or 3 days’ use. World corn carryover was lowered by 1 days’ use as well, it is the smallest in 9 years. World soybean and domestic wheat carryover rose about 1%. The USDA  is the world's gold standard for crop estimates, but it faces mounting doubts about the reliability of its data from farmers, grain traders and economists following deep staff losses and

February S&D Estimates The USDA will release the S&D report on February 10 at 11 AM Central Time. Market estimates U.S. soybean and wheat carryover to decrease about 1%, corn carryover is anticipated to stay unchanged. Note: "Ending Stocks" aka "Carryover." World carryover is seen a bit higher for corn and beans. Brazilian crops estimates may increase while decreasing for Argentina. Estimates compiled by DTN: Q&A: Put Options and Risk Management From a client in Iowa: "Thanks

What is wrong with the way we market ag commodities in this country? When grain is contracted for deferred delivery at a fixed price, the grain elevator hedges those bushels in the futures market. That enables them to pay the farmer the contracted price when he delivers the grain later.   For example, in June you execute a December corn HTA (or forward contract) at $4.40 on 50,000 bushels. When you deliver the corn in October, December corn is $3.60. The elevator sells your c

Tidbits The EU  is very upset that Trump has put a tariff on all their products shipped to the U.S. until the U.S. gains control of Greenland. The EU is our largest importer of soybean meal. Last year, the EU imported 20.6 million mts of U.S. soybean meal.   The U.S. economy  has two major problems:   Unprofitable grain production for most of the last three years with 2026 looking just as bad or worse.  Datacenters under construction or planned for construction will not have

Tidbits President Trump announced that he will immediately impose a 25% tariff on any country that does any business with Iran. According to the most recent World Bank data, Iran, an OPEC member, exported goods to 147 countries in 2022. Its largest trading partners are China, certain East Asian countries, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Germany. The price of crude oil rose by another $1.50. The Supreme Court is expected to issue their ruling on Trump’s tariffs tod

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts of soybeans to China 104,328 mts of soy meal to Mexico 250,000 mts of corn to unknown Brazil's Corn: Geraldo Isolodi is an analyst with Terra Investmentos of Brazil. He wrote his South American Crop Update earlier this month. Here are the highlights of what he had to say about the corn market:  "At the present, the corn market is supported by robust domestic demand from corn-based ethanol plan

Tidbits China bought  at least ten more shiploads of U.S. soybeans (~650,000 mts) on Tuesday according to multiple sources within the grain export trade. Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities: China continues buying soybeans from the U.S. Purchases have reached 67 cargoes, ~35% of the program. These purchases make no economic sense — they are political purchases. The losses on these soybeans for crush are enormous, which leads the market to think: regardless of price, the st

Tidbits Early last week President Trump authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela. On Friday, a large crude refinery and chemical facility in Venezuela had a serious explosion, the cause of which is reportedly unknown. On Monday, the U.S. will designate Venezuela’s drug Cartel de Soles as a foreign terrorist organization for its alleged role in importing illegal drugs into the U.S. That designation legally allows a U.S. military strike on any target within the country tha

Tidbits President Donald Trump is committed to providing Americans a $2,000 check using money that has come into government coffers from Trump's tariffs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Trump's staff is exploring how to go about making the plan a reality. The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote today to end the government shutdown. OPEC  revised its crude oil demand projections for 2026 from higher to about unchanged to show a “b

Tidbits Inflation: Two weeks ago, the U.S. inflation rate for the past 12 months was reported to be 3%, way above the Federal Reserve’s stated goal of 2%. Three days later, the Fed reduced the Fed Fund Rate. Chairman Jerome Powell said, “Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal."   In August 1971, the U.S. annual inflation rate reached an "intolerable" 3% and all financial “experts” pr

Tidbits China bought 20 shiploads of Brazil’s soybeans over the weekend.   Bloomberg reported that China is seeking U.S. wheat offers for December through February shipment. That supported corn yesterday. The U.S. will suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels starting November 10 as part of deescalating maritime tensions, Bloomberg reports. The White House says the pause of measures aimed at countering China’s shipping dominance will last one year while the U.S. n

Soybeans Market & Risk Management There are three primary reasons farmers sell corn, wheat, and beans when they do.   The most common reason is farmers sell grain when they need the money. Since most farmers need money about the same time, that is why the lows are made as farmers sell about three-fourths of their grain in the bottom fourth of the year's price range.   The second reason farmers sell grain is because the price is profitable, so they sell some grain and hold bac

Tidbits Soybean export:  CHS reports that China bought at least four cargoes of soybeans on Friday. Shipments are scheduled for December and January and will originate from both the PNW and the Gulf.   A trader with “inside” connections says the USDA has 20 million mts of soybean exports to China plugged into the S&D for this marketing year. If so, the China deal will not result in an increase in exports on the next USDA S&D.   OPEC  will meet tomorrow to discuss December pro

Tidbits Chinese and U.S.  officials will be meeting this weekend to prepare the agenda for next Thursday’s meeting of Trump and Xi to discuss “important issues”. Yesterday afternoon, Reuters reported that the Chinese oil majors have suspended purchases of Russian oil due to the U.S. sanctions. It seems like questionable news, because yesterday, commenting on U.S. sanctions against Russian oil companies, a representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated at a briefing tha

We've prepared general marketing recommendations for U.S. farmers which are absolutely necessary to know and practice. How to get better at marketing? Everyone’s marketing skills are different. You must learn and improve yours. Start by learning the marketing lingo and practice. Find a friend to talk about markets until the lingo becomes comfortable in conversation. Consider working with an adviser or service that will help you learn. Let’s cover basic marketing techniques be