Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 252,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown. China's Soybean Auctions: China's Sinograin auctioned 504,000 metric tons (18.5 million bushels) of imported soybeans on Friday. They sold roughly half of the offered volume in its largest reserve auction since January. Sold beans moved into commercial channels, and Sinograin has scheduled another auction of 501,158 metric tons for Wednesday, involving soybeans produced

Rolling HTA Contracts A client came up short on bushels to fill a July HTA contract for June delivery. The merchandiser suggested the client roll the portion of the undelivered bushels from July to November and deliver the bushels this fall. Our client agreed. He was surprised to learn his new November HTA price was higher than his July HTA. He asked how that could happen? The gain or loss on the roll from July to November has nothing to do with the price of the July HTA, w

Tidbits Crude oil gapped lower on the opening last evening and traded more than $5 lower in the first half hour of trading on the expectation that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened in a matter of days. Iran: President Trump said on Sunday he had told his representatives not to rush into any deal with Iran. He played down hopes of an imminent breakthrough that had been raised on Saturday. Trump said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz will remain in

Tidbits Market Comment: It is normal for the price of corn to decline when the market comes to the conclusion that the crop is going to get planted and off to a good start. Monday’s Crop Progress Report assured the market the corn crop is, in fact, off to a good start and remaining acres will easily be planted before the insurance date. Better yet, widespread rain in most of the Corn Belt on the newly planted corn was predicted and falling the past three days in many Corn Bel

Tidbits Mexico’s main meat industry group said yesterday it aims to double beef exports to the ‌United States next year, seeking to offset losses from a border closure triggered by a screwworm outbreak. In the first four months of the year, Mexican beef exports to the U.S. increased by about 23% according to officials of the Mexican ​Meat Chamber, who said fresh meat accounts for most of what is exported. The U.S. border has been closed to Mexican livestock for about a year.

Tidbits Biofuel: The U.S. House has passed the year-around E15 legislation. Now to the Senate, ​where it needs 60% of votes, and get a signature ​from President Donald Trump to be enacted. However, opinions are divided. Some experts believe that increased domestic corn consumption will help farmers who produce corn, while others believe the bill will increase fuel costs, further increasing expenses and pressure soybean producers. The U.S. PPI, producer prices index, soared 1.

Tidbits Fertilizer: Dakota Gas has switched from making diesel exhaust fluid to making granular 46% nitrogen urea at their Great Plains Synfuels Plant near Beulah, North Dakota. The plant’s capacity is 1,100 short tons per day. The USA burns enough DEF each year to meet all of Canada’s nitrogen fertilizer needs. Brazil: Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities reported on Monday: “I’m in Goiás this week. Everywhere I’ve been, the corn looks small and stressed. I saw sunflower a

Tidbits Tomorrow is the last trading day before delivery notices are posted for May futures. That usually means prices yesterday and today would be lower because all long May futures positions and basis contracts must be rolled or liquidated before the close Wednesday. Soy crush margins moved to fresh all-time highs at $3.52 per bushel, with bean oil contributing 52% of the value, which is still a historically high ratio. Soybean oil (and cotton) reached new highs last week.

Tidbits The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is really a blockade of Iranian ports, not the strait. No ships are allowed to enter or leave an Iranian port, but the U.S. says the strait is open and Iran says the strait is closed. The reality is insurance companies are limiting shipping through the strait. On Sunday, President Trump issued the following statement: "Today, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as a

Corn Market Summary Corn, wheat, and soybean futures usually trade to their highest price of the year between late April and late June. Every Wednesday we send you an email entitled Weekly Summary & Recommendations (link in the section below) in which we discuss the technical outlook, fundamental outlook, seasonal price trend, and profitability of the current price. Given the new information from the USDA with 2026 acres, the quarterly stocks information and the latest weat

Tidbits Baker Hughes reported there were 548 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA. That is 5 more than last week but 42 fewer than a year ago. Canada had 142 rigs drilling this past week, which was 11 fewer than a week ago and 11 fewer than a year ago. Worldwide, there were 1058 rigs drilling at the end of March, 54 fewer than the previous month and 37 fewer than a year ago. CGB at Gladstone Bluff, Illinois (on The River) Friday evening compared to

Tidbits Mike Alfred is a private investor, advisor, and corporate board member of several companies. He is the Founder and Managing Partner of Alpine Fox LP, a private investment partnership focused on value equities and Bitcoin. He has 338,600 followers on X, where he posted mid-day yesterday (Sunday): "I just sailed through the Strait of Hormuz. Light wind, good visibility, saw a few other yachts. No sign of conflict. The trading lane is open for business. Oil should soft

Tidbits Iran’s president issued an apology to neighboring countries to calm regional anger at Iran’s strikes on Gulf civilian targets and urged them not to join the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. Fertilizer: From Agrinvest and Dellagro Team: "The global fertilizer market went on alert following escalating tensions in the Middle East, which increased logistical uncertainties in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

Tidbits April WTI Crude Oil futures opened at $75.00 last evening, up $7.98. In a matter of seconds, it traded to $75.33 and, within 15 minutes, it traded down to $71.04. Brent crude traded as high as $80 in over-the-counter trading Sunday. The big move up is primarily on fears the Strait of Hormuz on the south end of the Persian Gulf may be closed or blocked. More than 20% of global crude oil and 33% of international fertilizer trade passes the Strait of Hormuz. Some shipo

Tidbits Mexican drug cartels declared war on the Mexican and U.S. governments after their drug lord, El Mencho, was killed in a joint Mexican-U.S. operation. It was 15 days ago that Mexico agreed to joint operation in Mexico with U.S. authorities and they succeeded in taking out a kingpin. The drug cartel has declared war on the Mexican people in an attempt to motivate citizens to plead for the government to call off its persecution of the drug cartels. Many Mexican cities

Tidbits The Supreme Court’s decision that made a large portion of President Trump’s tariffs illegal will not have a direct impact on corn, wheat, and soybean prices. After all, Trump's tariffs are on imports into the U.S., not our exports. Confusion and misinformation is often bearish, but Trump’s new 10% tariffs introduced on Friday afternoon will help stabilize all the markets. Those 10% tariffs will come into effect Tuesday and will be in place for 150 days, the White Ho

Tidbits Basis & FOB: Yesterday, we reported to you corn prices at New Orleans, Louisiana (NOLA) and corn at the Pacific Northwest (PNW) ports were the same FOB price, namely $220 per mt. We cannot remember a time when FOB in the PNW was equal to FOB at NOLA. The prices are the same this year because the cost of rail freight to the PNW from the Midwest is covered by the extremely weak basis in the Upper Midwest compared to the Eastern Corn Belt and river outlets coupled with t

Tidbits The Ag futures market will not trade again until Monday evening due to President's Day. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months and below forecasts of 2.5%. Soybeans Pricing Jake Hanley is the Chief Growth Officer and Director of Investments at Teucrium which provides Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in agricultural futures-based strategies as an investment opportuni

Tidbits Yesterday’s February S&D increased 2025/26 U.S. corn exports, which reduced the marketing year carryover by ~5% or 3 days’ use. World corn carryover was lowered by 1 days’ use as well, it is the smallest in 9 years. World soybean and domestic wheat carryover rose about 1%. The USDA is the world's gold standard for crop estimates, but it faces mounting doubts about the reliability of its data from farmers, grain traders and economists following deep staff losses and a

February S&D Estimates The USDA will release the S&D report on February 10 at 11 AM Central Time. Market estimates U.S. soybean and wheat carryover to decrease about 1%, corn carryover is anticipated to stay unchanged. Note: "Ending Stocks" aka "Carryover." World carryover is seen a bit higher for corn and beans. Brazilian crops estimates may increase while decreasing for Argentina. Estimates compiled by DTN: Q&A: Put Options and Risk Management From a client in Iowa: "Thanks