Tidbits, Markets, Weather and Harvest Yields, Black Sea, Brazil, Iran, FOB 10/5/26
Tidbits
This week is pivotal as the corn and soybean markets shift from a mix of old and new crop fundamentals to strictly new crop fundamental factors. Each day, the weather, harvest progress, actual yields, etc., the Crop Progress this afternoon, and the Crop Production with S&D on Friday and all the estimates between now and Friday will impact prices. The crop news will have a back-drop of shifting geo-political issues that will impact decisions we all need to make about buying inputs, storing, and pricing production will complicate all the decisions.
Weather and Harvest Yields: Very little rain is expected this week. The specs will be expecting a lot of farmers selling even if there is no farmer selling! Most of the grain delivered to merchandisers this week will be on fall delivery contracts already priced or bushels on basis contracts to catch some of the remarkably firm basis scattered across farm country. Since there is hardly any rain predicted this week, all those firm basis bids will disappear within a day or two.
The stocks of old crop soybeans were actually less than the market expected, but November beans were down 40¢ last week and December corn was down 30¢. There is no doubt some of last week’s weakness was pricing good harvest weather this week.
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