BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Yesterday, November bean futures were up 4¢, January beans were up 1½, March beans were down ¼, and May beans were down ¾¢. Corn and wheat had similar action, but not as pronounced. Meaning the spread is going up and that is bullish market action. With November soybean deliveries beginning 8 days, it looks like the big grain companies want soybean deliveries. The FSA  reportedly will reopen offices today to process ARC/PLC payments, farm loans, and disaster programs.

Tidbits November grain and oilseed options expire this Friday, October 24th.    Deliveries on November soybean futures will start Friday, October 31st. Farm Aid: The U.S. administration is planning to distribute more than $3 billion in aid for farmers and reopen some activities of the USDA amid the ongoing federal shutdown. Ag Secretary Rollins said: "Thursday, USDA will resume Farm Service Agency core operations, including critical services for farm loan processing, ARC/PLC

Tidbits The Quarterly Grain Stocks Report  will be issued tomorrow at 11 AM Central. This September stocks report includes a look back at the last three marketing years to see if the current inventory is reasonable given the crop production and consumption numbers of each of those years. Once every 10 or so years, there is a huge surprise in September. However, during the past six years, USDA has made some adjustments “out-of-schedule” for past marketing years.   The most rec

Tidbits A Chinese commerce  minister is scheduled to visit the U.S. and talk to trade deputies. While this is not part of the ongoing negotiations, it is seen as a goodwill gesture. The human case of screwworm  reported this week by U.S. health officials is the country's only one so far this year and poses no risk to the farm sector, a U.S. Department of Agriculture official said on Tuesday. Crude oil was lower yesterday, despite the Ukraine conflict and its impact on Russian

Tidbits Russia-Ukraine:  On the surface, Trump’s meeting with President Putin was a total failure. Trump had said he wanted a cease fire in Russia’s war with Ukraine and a framework for a lasting peace. The culture of Eastern Europe and a lack of a Ukrainian representative made Trump’s goals highly unlikely. The anti-Trumper news media is jumping all over this failure. However, Trump and Putin showed friendliness and mutual respect at their press conference. Trump was asked t

Tidbits In hindsight, Sunday’s CBOT opening was heavily influenced by disappointment that there were no  trade deals  announced by President Trump Thursday evening despite the number of rain days in the Western Corn Belt declining during the weekend. We expected the weather forecast to provide more support than it did. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday morning that the Trump administration will announce several trade deals or tariff actions within the next 48 ho

Tidbits The U.S. Senate passed its version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act , a ten-year fiscal package which would serve as the vehicle for fulfilling President Donald Trump’s campaign promises on tax cuts and border security. Vice-President Vance cast the tie-breaking vote after all Democrat and three Republican senators voted “No” on the measure: Sens. Rand Paul, Thom Tillis, and Susan Collins. The bill will now go back to the House of Representatives, which will accept o

Tidbits USDA April crush numbers  for soybeans, canola, and corn will be issued 2 PM Central today.   Over the weekend, India  reduced the tariff  on all vegetable oils by 10%. Domestic veg oil supplies are priced higher than any imported oil, according to Tushar Agarwal, market analyst for edible oils.   Yesterday, Ukraine  launched a massive drone strike on Russia  sending drones 2,670 miles (4300 kms) past the battle line, deeper into Russia than ever before. Drone hit mul

Tidbits Pro Farmer reports: Some yield concerns  are cropping up in Brazil , with some later-planted safrinha corn facing an increased stress in drier biased areas, most notably in center-west areas.   For anyone watching our daily rain day charts that is no surprise. The first three locations are Brazil’s safrinha corn area and the dry season clearly started the first week in May. The dry season usually means no rain. Imagine what a corn field looks like if planted in sandy

Tidbits After handling a record number of ocean freight containers in 2024, containers are stacking up at China ’s ports. Shanghai and Guangdong ports are seeing idle containers that missed the April 9, 2025, U.S. tariff deadline. Virtually no cargo ships were heading to the U.S. from these ports as of mid-April, and factory production in export hubs like Zhejiang and Guangdong has largely been halted.    China’s fiscal revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.1% less than

Tidbits China  bought a weekly record 60 ship loads of Brazil’s soybeans  this past week, boosted by robust farmer sales and better profit margins of China crushers. More than 5.2 million mts were sold.   Corporate China spent years living by the 996 rule: work 9 AM to 9 PM six days a week. Now, companies are beginning to ease off because of the potential loss of the American markets.   A highly unusual personnel move in the upper ranks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ha

Highlights After the ag futures close today, they will not reopen until Monday evening at normal times. Crude oil will be trading normal hours Sunday night and Monday. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentine corn production by 2 million mts to 46 million mts (USDA 50) and lowered soybean production by 5 million to 47.5 million mts (USDA 49). CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) reduced their Brazilian soybean production estimate by a mere 310,000 mts to 166 million mts

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Rumors are floating that China needs to buy corn. The U.S. is the only place to buy shiploads of corn until June. Three months ago, China said it harvested its biggest crop of corn last summer despite three typhoons moving across much of their corn growing area in July and August.   Early yesterday China halted soybean imports from five Brazilian companies because cargoes did no

Highlights ADM’s Joe Mauck’s comments from yesterday afternoon:  "Growing conditions in South America  remain neutral, and precipitation is expected to be average to slightly below average for the next couple weeks. Production estimates for both Brazil and Argentina feels optimistic and could increase over the next 2 months. Thinking about planted acres for next year, corn looks a lot better than beans today.  Despite the cost to plant corn being higher than beans from a cash

Highlights OPEC+ on Thursday has postponed the revival of its oil production by three months, now set to begin in April 2025 instead of January 2025, marking the third such delay amid struggling crude prices and a potential surplus. The planned initial increase of 180,000 barrels per day will now be part of a slower unwinding of cuts expected to conclude in September 2026. Despite this delay, the UAE is permitted to gradually increase its production by 300,000 barrels per day

Highlights Yesterday, S&P Global reported China’s PMI rose to 51.5 in November, the highest since June as new export orders rose for the first time in four months. The market expected China’s PMI to be only 50.5. This is one the strongest one-month PMI gain ever for any country! China's November factory production expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November. New orders, including those from abroad, led to a solid rise in production, pushing manufacturers' optimism

Tidbits Yesterday’s weakness for corn and beans was a result of speculative profit-taking after four days of gains earlier in the week, options expiration, and merchandiser pre-hedging in the corn. The weakness in wheat made no sense at all.   Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of: 116,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China and 136,000 mts of old crop corn to Mexico   Since Monday, the US reported “flash” sales like the above notice totaled 1.347 million mts of beans (

Highlights & Export Sales November CBOT options expire today.   Weekly export sales were huge. According to Karen Braun, it was the fifth-largest corn sales for any week in at least 20 years, while sales of soybeans were the 2nd largest for any week in over a year. Also, yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 227,600 mts of old crop corn to Japan 165,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown

Highlights Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of: 1,043,940 mts of old crop corn to Mexico 579,120 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 332,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 175,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown   November soybean futures gained 5½¢ on the January beans the past 8 trading sessions. Benson Quinn Commodities, which is owned by ADM, say crushers only have enough beans to keep operating for two weeks. Farmers are not selling beans with the 90¢ drop in f

Highlights The main point of interest on yesterday’s S&D was what would the USDA do with corn and bean yields. The market expected both to be reduced slightly. USDA did lower bean yields one-tenth of a bushel, as expected, but increased corn yields two-tenths of a bushel while the market expected a two-tenths of a bushel reduction.   USDA increased corn demand by 73 million bushels, bringing the total increase in corn demand since 1 November to 813 million bushels! Throw in t