BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights USDA increased their old crop corn export projection on yesterday’s S&D by 100 million bushels to 2,750 million bushels. The past four S&D reports have increased this marketing year’s corn exports a total of 300 million bushels. Unfortunately, USDA also reduced feed use for corn by 75 million bushels yesterday even though the marketing year ends 31 August. The animal numbers reported by USDA in recent months do not justify a feed cut and there was no increase in fe

Tidbits Yesterday at midday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the trade talks  with China in London were going well and he hoped they would end on Tuesday night but said they could run into Wednesday. Later, he said the two sides have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between their respective presidents. ADM reports Trump is looking at rolling back the port fees  on China vessels scheduled to take effect in October. Dr. Cordonnier i

Tidbits U.S. crude  oil inventories dropped more than expected last week, it is about 7% below the five-year average, with the weekly production held steady. President Donald Trump has signed an order doubling tariffs on steel  and aluminium imports from 25% to 50%. Trump has said the measures, which came into effect on Wednesday, are intended to secure the future of the American steel industry. There has been no retaliation from the EU yet, they had warned of countermeasures

Highlights The U.S. and China trade agreement details announced yesterday morning: A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Both Countries dropped their tariff rates by 115 percent points. The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduced from 145% to 30%. China’s tariffs on U.S. goods will be 10%, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 91% removed. China removed all non-tariff countermeasures (all “lame” excuses like quotas, phyto-sanitary restrictions, etc.) China sent their deputy minist

Highlights The White House  issued this press release shortly after 1:15 PM EDT Sunday: Reuters News Service, May 11, 2025:17 PM EDT: The U.S. and China ended high-stakes trade talks on a positive note on Sunday, with U.S. officials touting a "deal" to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, while Chinese officials said the sides had reached "important consensus" and agreed to launch another new economic dialogue forum.   Neither side released details after they wrapped up two days of

Tidbits U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported yesterday morning the U.S. economy  contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. Imports increased 41.3% which reduces GDP as the domestic economy does not produce imports. GDP is the measure of the value of all goods and services produced, not imported.  Many companies went on a purchasing spree in the first quarter to avoid the potential price increases caused by tariffs. First quarter contraction was a sharp reversal from

Tidbits China made several announcements yesterday which show they are going to advance their effort to counter the U.S. trade actions that are forcing China to the negotiation table. China will convene an informal U.N. Security Council meeting on April 23 to accuse Washington of bullying and weaponizing tariffs, according to a document that outlines the key elements of a proposed project, initiative, or program at the United Nations. All 193 U.N. members are invited to atten

Tidbits China, having a near monopoly on the rare earth metals  industry, has hinted at a stoppage since the first Trump administration. The country produces over 99% of the world’s heavy rare earth metals as well as 90% of rare earth magnets.   What is a rare earth metal? There are 17 so-called rare earth metals that are named not for being rare, but for being extremely difficult and environmentally dangerous to mine and process.   These metals are sometimes turned into powe

Tidbits After handling a record number of ocean freight containers in 2024, containers are stacking up at China ’s ports. Shanghai and Guangdong ports are seeing idle containers that missed the April 9, 2025, U.S. tariff deadline. Virtually no cargo ships were heading to the U.S. from these ports as of mid-April, and factory production in export hubs like Zhejiang and Guangdong has largely been halted.    China’s fiscal revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.1% less than

Tidbits The Chinese economy  expanded at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, keeping the same pace as in the 4th quarter of 2024. The market expected a slower pace of expansion of just 5.1%. China’s economic annual growth rate is the strongest in 1½ years.   Manufacturing sales in Canada rose 0.2% in February to CA$72 billion; the market expected a decline of 0.2%. February was the fifth consecutive month of increases and the highest level of sales since Sept

Tidbits China  bought a weekly record 60 ship loads of Brazil’s soybeans  this past week, boosted by robust farmer sales and better profit margins of China crushers. More than 5.2 million mts were sold.   Corporate China spent years living by the 996 rule: work 9 AM to 9 PM six days a week. Now, companies are beginning to ease off because of the potential loss of the American markets.   A highly unusual personnel move in the upper ranks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ha

Highlights China has responded to Donald Trump's trade tariffs by raising duties on U.S. goods by from 34% to 84% and by appealing to the...

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 240,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain. In February, U.S. agricultural trade deficit showed slight improvement, with exports decreasing to $13.59 billion (a drop of $830 million from January) and imports falling more sharply to $17.86 billion (down $2.81 billion). This reduction narrowed the monthly trade deficit to $4.27 billion, an improvement from January's record deficit of $6.25 billion. USDA projects 2025 financia

Highlights On 2 April, Trump applied an additional 34% reciprocal tariffs on China  added to the existing 20% duties already applied to Chinese imports. Together, they bring the total tariff rate to 54%, affecting nearly $600 billion in annual trade to combat currency manipulation, dumping (selling below the cost of production) of industrial products, and a host of other lesser offenses. China responded over the weekend with a series of countermeasures, including tighter expo

Highlights The European Commission will meet today to prepare a list of U.S. products to slap additional tariff fees in response to Trump's tariffs . Insiders say the list includes meat, cereals, wine, wood, clothing, chewing gum, dental floss, vacuum cleaners, and toilet paper. The Commission has threatened a 50% tariff on U.S. bourbon which prompted Trump to threaten a 200% counter-tariff on EU alcoholic drinks.   David Perdue is President Trump’s nominee for ambassador to

The primary purpose of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is to promote fair and free global trade by developing international trade rules, resolving disputes, and facilitating negotiations and discussions on trade matters, ultimately aiming to improve global living standards and foster sustainable development. The WTO was formed in 1995 and replaced the General Agreement on Trades and Tariffs, aka GATT.   The WTO accomplishes its mission by: Administering Trade Agreements,

Tidbits At 5 AM Central yesterday morning, China announced an additional 34% tariff  on all U.S. products beginning 10 April and Reuters reported China halted poultry products imports from two unnamed American companies. China added five other countermeasures that do not appear to be ag related. Corn, beans, and wheat dropped dramatically in the 30 minutes after the news was released while us peon market watchers wondered what happened.     Corn fully recovered and settled hi

Tidbits Today is when President Trump said his tariffs on various imported products from multiple countries will be announced. The market has probably overestimated the impact of these tariffs.     Yesterday, the USDA reported total crush for February after the CBOT closed. The corn crush was 465 million bushels, down 6% from a year ago; corn crushed for ethanol was 421 million bushels, down 5%. The soybean crush was 189 million bushels, 2% less than a year ago. The canola cr

Highlights India is, by far, the largest world buyer of nitrogen fertilizer and they prefer urea. This past week India finally issued their first urea tender of 2025. It was expected to be issued from late January to the end of February. The nitrogen market-makers have been nervous and nitrogen retailers have been stressed the past few months waiting to see how much urea India would seek to buy and what price they would be willing to pay for it. That information is needed to

Price of Crude Oil May Be Going Up Last week, the Iranian-backed Houthis said they would resume attacks on Israeli vessels sailing off the coast of Yemen in response to Israel’s latest blockade on Gaza. The Houthis' warning affected the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Arabian Sea.   President Trump ordered a series of airstrikes on the Houthi-held areas in Yemen on Saturday, promising to use “overwhelming lethal force” until Iranian-backed Houthi r