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Tidbits, Corn Yield Estimates, Trade with China, Biofuel 11/8/25

Tidbits


The USDA will issue its first S&D in two months on Friday, 14 November. The biggest question is what will the corn yield be? Estimates:

  • StoneX: 186

  • Dr. Cordonnier: 181

  • Pro Farmer: 182.7

  • S&P Global: 189.1

  • Farm Journal: 178.5

  • Informa: 185

  • Bloomberg: 185

  • ADM Investor Services: 180

 

Note that all of those estimates at 185 or more serve clients who are grain merchants or end users. ADM Investor Services is a wholly owned subsidiary of ADM but supposedly operates independently. They do have a lot of farmers as clients. 

 

Jason Jenkins of DTN makes a compelling argument that 2025 corn yields will be less than last year’s 179.34 bushels per acre. You may recall, on the last Crop Production Report for the 2024 crop, USDA reduced corn yields by a whopping 4 bushels per acre. We suggest you read Jason’s article at this link.

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