Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Prices surged in the 2nd half of the session for corn, soybean and wheat mostly because of lower U.S. crop ratings. The additional rise in soybean prices was driven by statements from President Trump regarding China's purchases of U.S. agricultural products. Reportedly, China requested offers for soybean shipments from Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Northwest (PNW) ports. Fuel: President Trump signed an executive order allowing farmers and other qualifying users to tempor

Tidbits Grain Inventories: The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is the counter of everything agriculture in the USA. NASS surveyed farmers and commercial grain handlers to estimate 1 September grain and oilseed inventories. NASS put corn stocks at 2,095 million bushels. Private analysts surveyed by Reuters averaged 1,918 million, with the highest estimate at 2,005 million and the lowest at 1,843 million bushels. NASS said feed use was not nearly as much

Tidbits China announced tariff reductions on a broad range of U.S. agricultural products on Monday (Sunday night in USA), including corn, wheat, sorghum, soybean meal, and soybean oil, but excluded soybeans. U.S. soybeans continue to face an additional 10% Chinese tariff, which remains a significant obstacle for private Chinese crushers, but not the Chinese government buyers. All the soybeans purchased by China this year have been purchased by the government. Since the govern

Tidbits The U.S. Trade Representative said there would be a press release, perhaps a press conference on Monday with the details about the trade negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials the past two days. He made the announcement about 9 AM Central Time yesterday, which is when the markets began their upward trend into the close after trading sharply lower overnight. His announcement probably supported the market, but slow harvest, rain in the forecast for the next 10

Tidbits The U.S.-China summit has not yielded any significant new information for the grain markets, and as a result, major grain markets are currently trading lower. The "Busan" trade agreement between the U.S. and China has been extended until 10 January 2027. That was the first announcement yesterday morning from the White House. That means tariffs will remain reduced, and export controls on rare earth elements will continue to be eased. This agreement was signed by the U.

Tidbits Every U.S. Government debt instrument except the two-year Treasury note traded at levels with yields more than 5% yesterday. The 10-year Treasury bond yield traded at prices so low that the yield moved above 5% to a 20-year high at 5.14%! Higher interest rates are bearish for the economy for obvious reasons and especially commodities because the cost of storage increases. The higher storage costs are, the less likely grain will remain in storage. China: The world mark

Tidbits Flash Sales: USDA announced yesterday the sale of 111,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. China, Reuters reports: China agreed to purchase 25 million mts of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028 at the Busan summit in South Korea last year. U.S. officials say China then agreed to add on another $17 billion in other agricultural product purchases during Trump's visit to Beijing in May. China has never acknowledged those agreements but is nonetheless on track to meet t

Tidbits Iran & China: On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced new sanctions to strangle Iran economically and target countries and businesses doing business with Iran. Bessent put countries on notice that they will have to work with the United States or face losing access to the global dollar-based financial system. Late Wednesday, a Treasury spokesperson said China would be exempt, which means the soybean market dodged a bullet. High temperatures and heavy rain have

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA reported yesterday sales of 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown. Iran & China: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced “Operation Economic Outcast” yesterday, saying “If (countries) facilitate transactions and are part of the ecosystem that turns Iranian oil into money, into repression, they will be targeted.” This includes any country that participates in Iran’s aviation, shipping, and technology sectors. Bessent said that China will n

Tidbits Weekend Comments from AgrInvest Commodities in Brazil: The fertilizer market ended the week with strong downward pressure on nitrogen fertilizers, especially after the results of the Indian tender and the expansion of urea export quotas by China. Urea fell to the US$410–415/t CFR Brazil range, approaching the year's lows and increasing expectations of a demand recovery if prices break the US$400/t level. Ammonium sulfate followed the downward trend, giving back much

Tidbits Russia is intensifying strikes on Ukrainian ports, terminals and shipping infrastructure after Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels and maritime logistics. The responses are becoming broader and the economic impact is deepening. Ukraine’s Ag Minister said Sunday expects agricultural exports to fall to about 29.6million mts this marketing year, down 54% from an earlier forecast of 64.4 million mts. Wheat exports could decline 53% to just 8.3 million mts. Odessa’s por

S&D The USDA will issue its August S&D on Wednesday. This is the first 2026 crop production report in which yields will not be accounting estimates based upon unknown assumptions. While the yield numbers will not be based on field survey results, the yield numbers will be based on survey reports from approximately 15,000 farmers across the country of their individual crop conditions, expectations, and projected yields based on what they see in their fields at the beginning of

Tidbits Wheat: A Ukrainian drone strike on Thursday inflicted “significant damage” on Russia’s grain export terminal at Taman on the Kerch Strait, a facility Reuters put at 5 million mts of capacity, where shipping through the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait has been halted since 10 July. That corridor handled roughly a quarter of Russian grain exports. Before the strike, Taman Port loaded 374,000 mts of wheat for export the week ending Thursday, down from 513,000 from the

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 252,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown. China's Soybean Auctions: China's Sinograin auctioned 504,000 metric tons (18.5 million bushels) of imported soybeans on Friday. They sold roughly half of the offered volume in its largest reserve auction since January. Sold beans moved into commercial channels, and Sinograin has scheduled another auction of 501,158 metric tons for Wednesday, involving soybeans produced

Tidbits Markets: November soybean futures lost nearly 30¢ and corn lost 9¢ Wednesday as some weather forecasts indicated rain relief for the Western Corn Belt with widespread rains into the early part of next week, with heaviest amounts seen for Iowa, Southern Minnesota and Northern Illinois. Those areas could see 1.25 inches to over 2 inches by Tuesday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Frankly, we cannot find a NWS five-day outlook with that prediction.

Tidbits China evacuated more than 1.9 million people as Typhoon Bavi churned toward the major eastern city of Wenzhou. Farmers raced this past week to harvest crops. At the greatest risk were rice, corn, vegetables, and fruits. The category 1 typhoon made landfall with 90 mph (144 kmph) around 11:20 pm Saturday local time. Rice is the world’s number one competitor for wheat. In Asia, wheat and rice demand is determined by price for the average consumer. Reuters reports Ch

USDA’s July S&D Yesterday’s USDA numbers were supportive for corn, wheat, and beans, but wheat got an extra boost from Russia restricting access to waterways leading to the Sea of Azov (southeast of Ukraine) following Ukrainian attacks on oil tankers operating in the region. Analysts calculate that could take 735 million bushels off the world wheat market. Russia is the world’s leading wheat exporter. Confirmation from USDA that U.S. 2026 wheat production is the lowest in 56

Tidbits After the CBOT breakfast break yesterday morning, corn, wheat, and beans jumped sharply higher for no apparent reason. More than an hour later, Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities reported that China was rumored to be asking for quotes on U.S. soybeans for Oct to Mar shipment because Brazil’s FOB quotes were so much higher than they were a year ago for the same shipment period. DTN reports old crop corn basis is perking up in the PNW for July-Sep +130 to +135; June

Tidbits Given corn, wheat, and beans all opened 14 to 20+ higher last evening, last week's heavy selling was not justified. Brazil: From AgrInvest Commodities on Saturday: "In Brazil, corn remains pressured by comfortable physical supply and low liquidity, while fertilizers are experiencing greater downward pressure on nitrogen fertilizers. Soybean premiums (basis) showed firmness despite the sharp drop on the CBOT, in a market that remains cautious and stagnant." China:

Tidbits Nebraska is the third largest corn producing state in the U.S. It produces just under 2 billion bushels of corn annually. Nebraska is now 94% under some level of drought with about 10% in exceptional drought. Brady Olson farms and ranches in northeast Montana. He said Friday: "I think we have a massive disaster/wreck in northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota. Soil is drifted like snowbanks. Fertilizer that should be 3+ inches in the ground is on top. So dry an