Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Iran & China: On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced new sanctions to strangle Iran economically and target countries and businesses doing business with Iran. Bessent put countries on notice that they will have to work with the United States or face losing access to the global dollar-based financial system. Late Wednesday, a Treasury spokesperson said China would be exempt, which means the soybean market dodged a bullet. High temperatures and heavy rain have

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA reported yesterday sales of 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown. Iran & China: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced “Operation Economic Outcast” yesterday, saying “If (countries) facilitate transactions and are part of the ecosystem that turns Iranian oil into money, into repression, they will be targeted.” This includes any country that participates in Iran’s aviation, shipping, and technology sectors. Bessent said that China will n

Tidbits Weekend Comments from AgrInvest Commodities in Brazil: The fertilizer market ended the week with strong downward pressure on nitrogen fertilizers, especially after the results of the Indian tender and the expansion of urea export quotas by China. Urea fell to the US$410–415/t CFR Brazil range, approaching the year's lows and increasing expectations of a demand recovery if prices break the US$400/t level. Ammonium sulfate followed the downward trend, giving back much

Tidbits Russia is intensifying strikes on Ukrainian ports, terminals and shipping infrastructure after Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels and maritime logistics. The responses are becoming broader and the economic impact is deepening. Ukraine’s Ag Minister said Sunday expects agricultural exports to fall to about 29.6million mts this marketing year, down 54% from an earlier forecast of 64.4 million mts. Wheat exports could decline 53% to just 8.3 million mts. Odessa’s por

S&D The USDA will issue its August S&D on Wednesday. This is the first 2026 crop production report in which yields will not be accounting estimates based upon unknown assumptions. While the yield numbers will not be based on field survey results, the yield numbers will be based on survey reports from approximately 15,000 farmers across the country of their individual crop conditions, expectations, and projected yields based on what they see in their fields at the beginning of

Tidbits Wheat: A Ukrainian drone strike on Thursday inflicted “significant damage” on Russia’s grain export terminal at Taman on the Kerch Strait, a facility Reuters put at 5 million mts of capacity, where shipping through the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait has been halted since 10 July. That corridor handled roughly a quarter of Russian grain exports. Before the strike, Taman Port loaded 374,000 mts of wheat for export the week ending Thursday, down from 513,000 from the

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 252,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown. China's Soybean Auctions: China's Sinograin auctioned 504,000 metric tons (18.5 million bushels) of imported soybeans on Friday. They sold roughly half of the offered volume in its largest reserve auction since January. Sold beans moved into commercial channels, and Sinograin has scheduled another auction of 501,158 metric tons for Wednesday, involving soybeans produced

Tidbits Markets: November soybean futures lost nearly 30¢ and corn lost 9¢ Wednesday as some weather forecasts indicated rain relief for the Western Corn Belt with widespread rains into the early part of next week, with heaviest amounts seen for Iowa, Southern Minnesota and Northern Illinois. Those areas could see 1.25 inches to over 2 inches by Tuesday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Frankly, we cannot find a NWS five-day outlook with that prediction.

Tidbits China evacuated more than 1.9 million people as Typhoon Bavi churned toward the major eastern city of Wenzhou. Farmers raced this past week to harvest crops. At the greatest risk were rice, corn, vegetables, and fruits. The category 1 typhoon made landfall with 90 mph (144 kmph) around 11:20 pm Saturday local time. Rice is the world’s number one competitor for wheat. In Asia, wheat and rice demand is determined by price for the average consumer. Reuters reports Ch

USDA’s July S&D Yesterday’s USDA numbers were supportive for corn, wheat, and beans, but wheat got an extra boost from Russia restricting access to waterways leading to the Sea of Azov (southeast of Ukraine) following Ukrainian attacks on oil tankers operating in the region. Analysts calculate that could take 735 million bushels off the world wheat market. Russia is the world’s leading wheat exporter. Confirmation from USDA that U.S. 2026 wheat production is the lowest in 56

Tidbits After the CBOT breakfast break yesterday morning, corn, wheat, and beans jumped sharply higher for no apparent reason. More than an hour later, Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities reported that China was rumored to be asking for quotes on U.S. soybeans for Oct to Mar shipment because Brazil’s FOB quotes were so much higher than they were a year ago for the same shipment period. DTN reports old crop corn basis is perking up in the PNW for July-Sep +130 to +135; June

Tidbits Given corn, wheat, and beans all opened 14 to 20+ higher last evening, last week's heavy selling was not justified. Brazil: From AgrInvest Commodities on Saturday: "In Brazil, corn remains pressured by comfortable physical supply and low liquidity, while fertilizers are experiencing greater downward pressure on nitrogen fertilizers. Soybean premiums (basis) showed firmness despite the sharp drop on the CBOT, in a market that remains cautious and stagnant." China:

Tidbits Nebraska is the third largest corn producing state in the U.S. It produces just under 2 billion bushels of corn annually. Nebraska is now 94% under some level of drought with about 10% in exceptional drought. Brady Olson farms and ranches in northeast Montana. He said Friday: "I think we have a massive disaster/wreck in northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota. Soil is drifted like snowbanks. Fertilizer that should be 3+ inches in the ground is on top. So dry an

Tidbits Yesterday’s S&D was decided bullish for wheat, friendly for soybeans and longer term friendly for corn because the world corn carryout on 31 August 2027 is projected to be a 77 day supply. Four years ago this week, December corn traded to $7.66 with the world new crop corn carryout projected to be a 94 day supply. Granted, the U.S corn carryout that year was projected to be 34 day supply whereas this year’s domestic new crop corn carryover is projected to be a 44 day

Tidbits Brazil: Pátria Agronegócios is a consulting service for the soybean and corn markets based in Goiania, Goias, Brazil. Their weather comments yesterday: “Forecasts indicate dry weather over the next 15 days in key regions such as Goiás, Minas Gerais, and northern São Paulo. This raises an important alert, especially since about 40% of the second crop was planted outside the ideal window. On the other hand, Mato Grosso has crops in excellent condition, which limits any

Tidbits Planting Feedback: Jeff in Minnesota sent us this information yesterday morning: “Friend of mine around Charleston (far southeast) Missouri called last night. Record heat temps along with dry soils. Planting corn 2.5” deep to get in moisture. And he is a no till guy. He said guys around there planted all their corn in 4 days.” Brazilian agency CONAB estimated yesterday total corn production 1.3 million higher, at 139.6 million mts, but below last year’s 141.2 million.

Tidbits Crude oil prices drop and stocks rally after Trump’s ceasefire announcement. China intervened at the last minute and persuaded Iran to agree to a two-week ceasefire, The New York Times reported, citing Iranian officials. Still, the ceasefire hasn't really clarified anything when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. Some, maybe most of the reason for the weakness of corn and soybean markets is the fear of Thursday’s monthly S&D, which is typical every month. Brazil soy ha

Tidbits Soybeans & China: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview yesterday morning that the Sunday and Monday talks with China in Paris had been ‘very good,’ adding that the U.S. continues to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing. However, President Trump said his meeting with China’s President Xi planned to begin on 31 March may be postponed due to “logistical” problems. We take that to mean he is too busy with Iran and crude oil flow. The soybean market

Highlights Israel launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran on Saturday about 8 AM local time, pushing the Middle East into a renewed military confrontation and further dimming hopes for a diplomatic solution to Tehran's long-running nuclear dispute with the West. The New York Times and Al Jazeera, citing a U.S. official, reported that the United States took part in the strikes. President Trump confirmed that the U.S. military began major combat operations in Iran. Tidbits

Tidbits China is considering buying more U.S.-farmed soybeans, President Donald Trump said after what he called "very positive" talks with President Xi Jinping yesterday. In a goodwill gesture two months before Trump's expected visit to Beijing, Trump said Xi would consider hiking soybean purchases from the United States to 20 million metric tons in the current season, up from 12 million mts previously. March soybean futures rallied to $11.15 yesterday, but settled at $10.92,