BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Israel launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran on Saturday about 8 AM local time, pushing the Middle East into a renewed military confrontation and further dimming hopes for a diplomatic solution to Tehran's long-running nuclear dispute with the West.   The New York Times and Al Jazeera, citing a U.S. official, reported that the United States took part in the strikes. President Trump confirmed that the U.S. military began major combat operations in Iran. Tidbits

Tidbits China  is considering buying more U.S.-farmed soybeans , President Donald Trump said after what he called "very positive" talks with President Xi Jinping yesterday. In a goodwill gesture two months before Trump's expected visit to Beijing, Trump said Xi would consider hiking soybean purchases from the United States to 20 million metric tons in the current season, up from 12 million mts previously. March soybean futures rallied to $11.15 yesterday, but settled at $10.9

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 110,000 mts of old crop corn and 306,000 mts of old crop sorghum to unknown. The dollar index  has lost 3.4% in the last 6 trading days. That is supposed to be super bullish for U.S. exports, especially wheat. The storm  across the U.S. has cut electricity to millions of people in the U.S., which contributed to reducing crude oil production by 2 million barrels per day and reducing natural gas production by

Tidbits Mexico  has become the largest buyer of U.S. corn. Trump is increasing pressure on Cuba to cause the communist regime to collapse. Now that Venezuela is not shipping crude to Cuba, Mexico is the largest supplier of crude oil and refined products to Cuba. Mexican President Sheinbaum has said Mexico will continue crude oil shipments to Cuba, saying they are based on long term contracts and considered international aid. However, senior Mexican government sources said the

Tidbits Homeland Energy at Lawler in Northeast Iowa, is allowing contracted corn for February to be delivered now. Another tidbit of bullishness for corn prices. Exports: The U.S. has shipped over 2 million tons of soybeans to Egypt since September, up 43% from the same period last season. That covers more than 40% of Egypt's projected annual imports. The U.S. share increased to 76% from 41% in recent years, while Ukraine's share fell from 33% to 15%. Brazilian beef exports w

Tidbits When commodity futures prices add carry (return to storage) for a given commodity, it is telling farmers it will pay farmers to store that commodity. Typically, in a down market, the carry increases. Logically, in an up market, the carry decreases as the market reduces the incentive to store.   In recent years, we have developed a great deal of respect for the changes in the carry as a long-term indicator of the price direction.   Last year, the USDA presented a corn

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 336,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mts for March–May shipment, the total U.S. crop purchases are now estimated at 8.5–10 million mts, up to 80% of the 12 million mts Secretary Scott Bessent said China pledged to buy by end-February. Venezuela’s Stock Market was up 17% on Monday and 50% yesterday after Nicolás

Tidbits CBOT will begin trading at 8:30 AM Central Time and close at normal time, 1:15 PM Central time. USDA is scheduled to release its November oilseed and grain crush numbers after the close. Farmer Bridge Assistance Program , Per Acre Payment Rates for 2025 acres: Barley: $20.51 Canola: $23.57 Chickpeas (Large): $26.46 Chickpeas (Small): $33.36 Corn: $44.36 Cotton: $117.35 Flax: $8.05 Lentils: $23.98 Mustard: $23.21 Oats: $81.75 Peanuts: $55.65 Peas: $19.60 Rice: $132.89

Tidbits The CBOT  ag markets will have regular hours today, but no night session tonight and will reopen Friday morning at 8:30 AM Central with a regular closing time. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop beans to China and 231,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown. AgrInvest Commodities’ Eduardo Vanin yesterday morning: “China booked a few U.S. (soybean)  cargoes yesterday. The total is close to 140 cargoes, ~80% of the 12 mil

Tidbits U.S. crude oil stocks including the SPR rose by 800,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 28, following a 3.3 million-barrel build the prior week. It was up 0.1% from the prior week and 2.9% year over year, and remained about 3% below the five-year seasonal average. Imports from Mexico dropped by 431,000 bpd to a weekly record low of 131,000 bpd in the week. Venezuela’s oil exports averaged about 921,000 bpd in November, the year’s third-highest monthly level. Overall ex

Tidbits China bought  at least ten more shiploads of U.S. soybeans (~650,000 mts) on Tuesday according to multiple sources within the grain export trade. Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities: China continues buying soybeans from the U.S. Purchases have reached 67 cargoes, ~35% of the program. These purchases make no economic sense — they are political purchases. The losses on these soybeans for crush are enormous, which leads the market to think: regardless of price, the st

Tidbits Russia-Ukraine:  Sharply lower crude oil yesterday was primarily due to the prospect of the war between Russia and Ukraine ending next week.   President Trump is telling Ukraine’s President Zelensky to sign a new peace proposal by Thanksgiving or risk losing U.S. support. U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll delivered the message to Zelensky on Thursday in the form of a 28-point plan drafted by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev. The

Tidbits Soy Meal: A 30,000 mts cargo of Argentine soybean meal has cleared Chinese customs, marking the first shipment since Beijing allowed imports in 2019 and signaling a new trade channel with the world’s top soymeal exporter.   USDA’s Crop Progress  for the week ending November 16 had corn harvested at 91% (vs 94% five-year avg; 98% last year) and soybeans harvested at 95% (vs 96% five-year avg; 98% last year). Winter wheat is 92% planted (95% five-year avg; 94% last year

Tidbits During the 43 days the U.S. government was shut down, December spring wheat gained 6¢, Hard Red Winter December wheat gained 42¢, Soft Red Winter December wheat gained 47¢, December corn gained 28¢ and January beans gained $1.30, new highs not only for the year, but higher than any time since June 2024.   There has been a lot of talk over the years that farm commodities are the only products in the U.S. that everyone is told what production was in the past and expecte

November S&D Last year, the USDA started the 2024 corn crop with a yield of 181 in May and continued that yield in June and July. In August, USDA put the yield at 183.2, then 183.6 in September, then 183.8 in October, 183.1 in November. There is no crop production report in December, so the December S&D always has the same yield as November S&D. This year may be different because of the shut down, but we doubt it.   On 10 January 2025, March corn was $4.52, 52¢ above its cont

Tidbits President Donald Trump is committed to providing Americans a $2,000 check using money that has come into government coffers from Trump's tariffs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Trump's staff is exploring how to go about making the plan a reality. The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote today to end the government shutdown. OPEC  revised its crude oil demand projections for 2026 from higher to about unchanged to show a “b

Tidbits The USDA  will issue its first S&D in two months on Friday, 14 November. The biggest question is what will the corn yield be? Estimates: StoneX: 186 Dr. Cordonnier: 181 Pro Farmer: 182.7 S&P Global: 189.1 Farm Journal: 178.5 Informa: 185 Bloomberg: 185 ADM Investor Services: 180   Note that all of those estimates at 185 or more serve clients who are grain merchants or end users. ADM Investor Services is a wholly owned subsidiary of ADM but supposedly operates independ

Tidbits China purchased earlier this week one Panamax load of 60,000 mts of soft white wheat and another 60,000 mts of spring wheat according to traders in the export business, as Reuters reported yesterday. Delivery will be in December. “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of an event” is a fancy way to say, “Buy the rumor and sell the fact.”  The rumor the past two weeks was China will buy U.S. wheat. That rumor had Soft Red Winter Wheat

Tidbits The price of U.S. beans at the Gulf plus freight to China was $496 per mt on Friday, while beans from Brazil plus freight to China were $494. Monday evening, Gulf beans plus freight to China were $510 and Brazil beans were $492. China reportedly bought seven Panamax shiploads of U.S. soybeans last week, the first U.S. beans to China this year. Over the weekend, China bought 20 shiploads of beans from Brazil. Thus, China has bought about 420,000 mts of U.S. beans and h

Tidbits The government shutdown has reached day 30, approaching the record. The longest shutdown in U.S. history of 35 days occurred during Donald Trump's first presidency in 2019. The ongoing one has already cost the U.S. economy $7-14 billion, according to a new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Medicine:  Farmers and ranchers could face a major premium hike as expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits expire at year’s end unless Congress acts. W