BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits China bought  at least ten more shiploads of U.S. soybeans (~650,000 mts) on Tuesday according to multiple sources within the grain export trade. Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities: China continues buying soybeans from the U.S. Purchases have reached 67 cargoes, ~35% of the program. These purchases make no economic sense — they are political purchases. The losses on these soybeans for crush are enormous, which leads the market to think: regardless of price, the st

Tidbits Russia-Ukraine:  Sharply lower crude oil yesterday was primarily due to the prospect of the war between Russia and Ukraine ending next week.   President Trump is telling Ukraine’s President Zelensky to sign a new peace proposal by Thanksgiving or risk losing U.S. support. U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll delivered the message to Zelensky on Thursday in the form of a 28-point plan drafted by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev. The

Tidbits Soy Meal: A 30,000 mts cargo of Argentine soybean meal has cleared Chinese customs, marking the first shipment since Beijing allowed imports in 2019 and signaling a new trade channel with the world’s top soymeal exporter.   USDA’s Crop Progress  for the week ending November 16 had corn harvested at 91% (vs 94% five-year avg; 98% last year) and soybeans harvested at 95% (vs 96% five-year avg; 98% last year). Winter wheat is 92% planted (95% five-year avg; 94% last year

Tidbits During the 43 days the U.S. government was shut down, December spring wheat gained 6¢, Hard Red Winter December wheat gained 42¢, Soft Red Winter December wheat gained 47¢, December corn gained 28¢ and January beans gained $1.30, new highs not only for the year, but higher than any time since June 2024.   There has been a lot of talk over the years that farm commodities are the only products in the U.S. that everyone is told what production was in the past and expecte

November S&D Last year, the USDA started the 2024 corn crop with a yield of 181 in May and continued that yield in June and July. In August, USDA put the yield at 183.2, then 183.6 in September, then 183.8 in October, 183.1 in November. There is no crop production report in December, so the December S&D always has the same yield as November S&D. This year may be different because of the shut down, but we doubt it.   On 10 January 2025, March corn was $4.52, 52¢ above its cont

Tidbits President Donald Trump is committed to providing Americans a $2,000 check using money that has come into government coffers from Trump's tariffs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Trump's staff is exploring how to go about making the plan a reality. The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote today to end the government shutdown. OPEC  revised its crude oil demand projections for 2026 from higher to about unchanged to show a “b

Tidbits The USDA  will issue its first S&D in two months on Friday, 14 November. The biggest question is what will the corn yield be? Estimates: StoneX: 186 Dr. Cordonnier: 181 Pro Farmer: 182.7 S&P Global: 189.1 Farm Journal: 178.5 Informa: 185 Bloomberg: 185 ADM Investor Services: 180   Note that all of those estimates at 185 or more serve clients who are grain merchants or end users. ADM Investor Services is a wholly owned subsidiary of ADM but supposedly operates independ

Tidbits China purchased earlier this week one Panamax load of 60,000 mts of soft white wheat and another 60,000 mts of spring wheat according to traders in the export business, as Reuters reported yesterday. Delivery will be in December. “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of an event” is a fancy way to say, “Buy the rumor and sell the fact.”  The rumor the past two weeks was China will buy U.S. wheat. That rumor had Soft Red Winter Wheat

Tidbits The price of U.S. beans at the Gulf plus freight to China was $496 per mt on Friday, while beans from Brazil plus freight to China were $494. Monday evening, Gulf beans plus freight to China were $510 and Brazil beans were $492. China reportedly bought seven Panamax shiploads of U.S. soybeans last week, the first U.S. beans to China this year. Over the weekend, China bought 20 shiploads of beans from Brazil. Thus, China has bought about 420,000 mts of U.S. beans and h

Tidbits The government shutdown has reached day 30, approaching the record. The longest shutdown in U.S. history of 35 days occurred during Donald Trump's first presidency in 2019. The ongoing one has already cost the U.S. economy $7-14 billion, according to a new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Medicine:  Farmers and ranchers could face a major premium hike as expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits expire at year’s end unless Congress acts. W

Tidbits The meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping lasted approximately 1 hour and 40 minutes. At the start of the talks, Trump stated that Beijing and Washington had already reached agreement on many issues and would continue this work during the summit. Following the talks, Trump headed straight to his special plane without making a joint statement. Trump’s comments on board Air Force One were the first we got on how these talks progressed. There has been no official statemen

Tidbits We have added pricing comments for soybeans & fuel to the Weekly Summary & Recommendations, make sure to take a look. U.S.-China: President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet Thursday in Asia. That means they will talk while Americans are sleeping. The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. and China have agreed to reduce port fees on vessels over 80,000 mts, which was a major point of contention. Most grain is shipped in Panamax vessels which gross 55,000

Tidbits Venezuela : The Pentagon announced yesterday the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford with its Strike Group has been ordered to Latin America to target drug trafficking organizations, marking a significant increase of the U.S. military buildup in the Latin American region.     U.S. Economy:  Markets have priced-in nearly a 99% probability the Federal Reserve will reduce the Fed Fund interest rate 25 basis points (a quarter of a percent) next week, with similar odds for

Tidbits Mid-day Saturday, President Trump issued this statement: Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment… The USA wants to help China, not hurt it.   Later Trump posted: China’s President Xi “just had a bad moment.”       China has softened their stance on their Friday announcement about rare earth mineral export controls. On Sunday morning, China issued this press release specifically about rare earth minerals: The re

Tidbits Politics and economics:  Thursday evening, the U.S. Senate passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026. It authorizes $913.9 billion in defense spending. The NDAA sets policy and funding priorities for the Department of Defense (or War), including modernization of military capabilities, support for service members, and enhancements to national security technologies. It now heads to the conference committee for reconciliatio

Tidbits The corn stocks  number yesterday was 82 million bushels higher than the highest estimate and 196 million bushels more than the average estimate. Yesterday’s low on December corn was lower than the last two lows made on corrections after making new highs for the move in September. The trend of higher highs and higher lows since 12 August has been broken and the price went below the 20-day moving average, which is a bearish technical indicator. However, the SuperTrend

Tidbits The Quarterly Grain Stocks Report  will be issued tomorrow at 11 AM Central. This September stocks report includes a look back at the last three marketing years to see if the current inventory is reasonable given the crop production and consumption numbers of each of those years. Once every 10 or so years, there is a huge surprise in September. However, during the past six years, USDA has made some adjustments “out-of-schedule” for past marketing years.   The most rec

Tidbits Soybeans: The U.S. may not be selling soybeans to the world’s largest soybean importer (China), but it looks like the U.S. will be selling beans to the world’s largest soybean producer (Brazil), which sells most of its beans to China. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, Brazil soybean crushing plants near Brazil’s ports are running the numbers on importing U.S. soybeans instead of trying to get beans from the West Central area of Brazil, which is 600 to 1,000 miles away from t

Tidbits EPA Director Lee Zeldin announced yesterday that gasoline cans  have been deregulated, issuing letters to manufacturers encouraging them to add vents to gas cans to ensure safe and effective refueling. Old fashioned cans with a vent and a simple threaded lid must now be legal! In 2007, EPA finalized a rule requiring manufacturers to reduce evaporative emissions by sealing in gasoline vapors, which allowed vents as long as they close automatically when not in use. Due

Tidbits 247Ag reports Ohio  has set a record for a month's average nighttime temperatures  being the highest ever recorded, which is not good for pollination.   Wells Fargo has suspended all travel to China  after one of its employees was blocked from leaving China, causing broader anxiety about the risks of travel in the country. Wells Fargo's Chenyue Mao was subjected to an exit ban after she entered China in recent weeks.   The Wallstreet Journal said the exit ban demonstr