BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits The USDA  will issue its first S&D in two months on Friday, 14 November. The biggest question is what will the corn yield be? Estimates: StoneX: 186 Dr. Cordonnier: 181 Pro Farmer: 182.7 S&P Global: 189.1 Farm Journal: 178.5 Informa: 185 Bloomberg: 185 ADM Investor Services: 180   Note that all of those estimates at 185 or more serve clients who are grain merchants or end users. ADM Investor Services is a wholly owned subsidiary of ADM but supposedly operates independ

Tidbits China purchased earlier this week one Panamax load of 60,000 mts of soft white wheat and another 60,000 mts of spring wheat according to traders in the export business, as Reuters reported yesterday. Delivery will be in December. “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of an event” is a fancy way to say, “Buy the rumor and sell the fact.”  The rumor the past two weeks was China will buy U.S. wheat. That rumor had Soft Red Winter Wheat

Tidbits The price of U.S. beans at the Gulf plus freight to China was $496 per mt on Friday, while beans from Brazil plus freight to China were $494. Monday evening, Gulf beans plus freight to China were $510 and Brazil beans were $492. China reportedly bought seven Panamax shiploads of U.S. soybeans last week, the first U.S. beans to China this year. Over the weekend, China bought 20 shiploads of beans from Brazil. Thus, China has bought about 420,000 mts of U.S. beans and h

Tidbits The government shutdown has reached day 30, approaching the record. The longest shutdown in U.S. history of 35 days occurred during Donald Trump's first presidency in 2019. The ongoing one has already cost the U.S. economy $7-14 billion, according to a new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Medicine:  Farmers and ranchers could face a major premium hike as expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits expire at year’s end unless Congress acts. W

Tidbits The meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping lasted approximately 1 hour and 40 minutes. At the start of the talks, Trump stated that Beijing and Washington had already reached agreement on many issues and would continue this work during the summit. Following the talks, Trump headed straight to his special plane without making a joint statement. Trump’s comments on board Air Force One were the first we got on how these talks progressed. There has been no official statemen

Tidbits We have added pricing comments for soybeans & fuel to the Weekly Summary & Recommendations, make sure to take a look. U.S.-China: President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet Thursday in Asia. That means they will talk while Americans are sleeping. The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. and China have agreed to reduce port fees on vessels over 80,000 mts, which was a major point of contention. Most grain is shipped in Panamax vessels which gross 55,000

Tidbits Venezuela : The Pentagon announced yesterday the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford with its Strike Group has been ordered to Latin America to target drug trafficking organizations, marking a significant increase of the U.S. military buildup in the Latin American region.     U.S. Economy:  Markets have priced-in nearly a 99% probability the Federal Reserve will reduce the Fed Fund interest rate 25 basis points (a quarter of a percent) next week, with similar odds for

Tidbits Mid-day Saturday, President Trump issued this statement: Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment… The USA wants to help China, not hurt it.   Later Trump posted: China’s President Xi “just had a bad moment.”       China has softened their stance on their Friday announcement about rare earth mineral export controls. On Sunday morning, China issued this press release specifically about rare earth minerals: The re

Tidbits Politics and economics:  Thursday evening, the U.S. Senate passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026. It authorizes $913.9 billion in defense spending. The NDAA sets policy and funding priorities for the Department of Defense (or War), including modernization of military capabilities, support for service members, and enhancements to national security technologies. It now heads to the conference committee for reconciliatio

Tidbits The corn stocks  number yesterday was 82 million bushels higher than the highest estimate and 196 million bushels more than the average estimate. Yesterday’s low on December corn was lower than the last two lows made on corrections after making new highs for the move in September. The trend of higher highs and higher lows since 12 August has been broken and the price went below the 20-day moving average, which is a bearish technical indicator. However, the SuperTrend

Tidbits The Quarterly Grain Stocks Report  will be issued tomorrow at 11 AM Central. This September stocks report includes a look back at the last three marketing years to see if the current inventory is reasonable given the crop production and consumption numbers of each of those years. Once every 10 or so years, there is a huge surprise in September. However, during the past six years, USDA has made some adjustments “out-of-schedule” for past marketing years.   The most rec

Tidbits Soybeans: The U.S. may not be selling soybeans to the world’s largest soybean importer (China), but it looks like the U.S. will be selling beans to the world’s largest soybean producer (Brazil), which sells most of its beans to China. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, Brazil soybean crushing plants near Brazil’s ports are running the numbers on importing U.S. soybeans instead of trying to get beans from the West Central area of Brazil, which is 600 to 1,000 miles away from t

Tidbits EPA Director Lee Zeldin announced yesterday that gasoline cans  have been deregulated, issuing letters to manufacturers encouraging them to add vents to gas cans to ensure safe and effective refueling. Old fashioned cans with a vent and a simple threaded lid must now be legal! In 2007, EPA finalized a rule requiring manufacturers to reduce evaporative emissions by sealing in gasoline vapors, which allowed vents as long as they close automatically when not in use. Due

Tidbits 247Ag reports Ohio  has set a record for a month's average nighttime temperatures  being the highest ever recorded, which is not good for pollination.   Wells Fargo has suspended all travel to China  after one of its employees was blocked from leaving China, causing broader anxiety about the risks of travel in the country. Wells Fargo's Chenyue Mao was subjected to an exit ban after she entered China in recent weeks.   The Wallstreet Journal said the exit ban demonstr

Highlights USDA increased their old crop corn export projection on yesterday’s S&D by 100 million bushels to 2,750 million bushels. The past four S&D reports have increased this marketing year’s corn exports a total of 300 million bushels. Unfortunately, USDA also reduced feed use for corn by 75 million bushels yesterday even though the marketing year ends 31 August. The animal numbers reported by USDA in recent months do not justify a feed cut and there was no increase in fe

Tidbits Yesterday at midday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the trade talks  with China in London were going well and he hoped they would end on Tuesday night but said they could run into Wednesday. Later, he said the two sides have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between their respective presidents. ADM reports Trump is looking at rolling back the port fees  on China vessels scheduled to take effect in October. Dr. Cordonnier i

Tidbits U.S. crude  oil inventories dropped more than expected last week, it is about 7% below the five-year average, with the weekly production held steady. President Donald Trump has signed an order doubling tariffs on steel  and aluminium imports from 25% to 50%. Trump has said the measures, which came into effect on Wednesday, are intended to secure the future of the American steel industry. There has been no retaliation from the EU yet, they had warned of countermeasures

Highlights The U.S. and China trade agreement details announced yesterday morning: A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Both Countries dropped their tariff rates by 115 percent points. The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduced from 145% to 30%. China’s tariffs on U.S. goods will be 10%, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 91% removed. China removed all non-tariff countermeasures (all “lame” excuses like quotas, phyto-sanitary restrictions, etc.) China sent their deputy minist

Highlights The White House  issued this press release shortly after 1:15 PM EDT Sunday: Reuters News Service, May 11, 2025:17 PM EDT: The U.S. and China ended high-stakes trade talks on a positive note on Sunday, with U.S. officials touting a "deal" to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, while Chinese officials said the sides had reached "important consensus" and agreed to launch another new economic dialogue forum.   Neither side released details after they wrapped up two days of

Tidbits U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported yesterday morning the U.S. economy  contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. Imports increased 41.3% which reduces GDP as the domestic economy does not produce imports. GDP is the measure of the value of all goods and services produced, not imported.  Many companies went on a purchasing spree in the first quarter to avoid the potential price increases caused by tariffs. First quarter contraction was a sharp reversal from