Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of: 340,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 256,634 mts of new crop soybeans to Mexico 110,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown The International Grains Council (IGC), in its latest Grain Market Report, sees global grains crop dropping by 2.7% (69 million mts) from last year’s record of 2.49 billion mts. Much of the fall is reflected in smaller anticipated corn and wheat crops, but with oats, sorghum and rye

Tidbits China evacuated more than 1.9 million people as Typhoon Bavi churned toward the major eastern city of Wenzhou. Farmers raced this past week to harvest crops. At the greatest risk were rice, corn, vegetables, and fruits. The category 1 typhoon made landfall with 90 mph (144 kmph) around 11:20 pm Saturday local time. Rice is the world’s number one competitor for wheat. In Asia, wheat and rice demand is determined by price for the average consumer. Reuters reports Ch

Tidbits Acres: Matt Bennet of Agmarket.net expects actual planted corn acres to be less than the March Intentions due to high fertilizer prices, supply challenges, and excessive moisture across regions of the United States. However, the firm says rallying corn prices during the spring kept the reduction from being more significant. Bennett says any acres lost in corn most likely shifted directly to soybeans. The firm believes combined corn and soybean acres are at 180.2 milli

Tidbits The CBOT futures markets are closed today for Juneteenth Day. They will reopen Sunday evening at usual times. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sales of: 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 120,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown 285,775 mt of new crop corn to Mexico Algeria bought between 800-850,000 mts of milling wheat yesterday at $265/mt CFR (Cost and Freight) for August shipment. The grain is likely sourced from the Black Sea and E

Tidbits Iran: Reuters News Service reported yesterday afternoon: U.S. President Donald Trump and mediator Pakistan said on Saturday an initial deal to end the war in the Middle East would be signed on Sunday, although Iran denied the signing would take place so soon. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the two sides had agreed on a framework for a peace deal and that Islamabad was preparing for an electronic signing on Sunday, ‌to be followed by technical-level talks

Tidbits Renewable fuel credits for 2026 hit record levels on Thursday and continued their run on Friday, driven by stronger Environmental Protection ​Agency biofuel mandates and widening price gaps between biodiesel and conventional diesel. Credits ‌tied to biodiesel and renewable diesel blending, known as D4 ⁠Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), rose to a record $2.32 on Friday. Before the EPA's mandates were announced on March 27, they ​were trading at around $1.50. T

Tidbits As we recently stated, corn and bean futures decline after the market gets comfortable that those crops will get planted. It is highly probable corn, beans, and wheat will see a gain 50% to 62% of what they have lost since 13 May. That is the standard technical retracement and profit-taking. The longest sunlight day of the year for the Corn Belt is three weeks from Monday. Soil moisture disappears very fast with 16 to 17 hours of daylight and warm to hot day time temp

Tidbits Biofuel: The U.S. House has passed the year-around E15 legislation. Now to the Senate, ​where it needs 60% of votes, and get a signature ​from President Donald Trump to be enacted. However, opinions are divided. Some experts believe that increased domestic corn consumption will help farmers who produce corn, while others believe the bill will increase fuel costs, further increasing expenses and pressure soybean producers. The U.S. PPI, producer prices index, soared 1.

Tidbits If you have any May positions, your cash grain and futures brokers want you to liquidate or roll all May positions before the close today. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will announce this afternoon their decision on interest rates. The market expects no changes by either central bank. Crude oil: After nearly 60 years of membership, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced yesterday it is leaving OPEC. Angola left OPEC in 2024, Ecuador left in 2020, and Qa

Tidbits OPEC has lowered its world oil demand forecast for the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day to 105.07 million bpd, citing the economic impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported. AAA lists the national average gasoline price at $4.12, up from $3.63 a month ago and $3.18 a year ago. The national average diesel price at $5.65, up from $4.89 a month ago and $3.59 a year ago. Biofuel & Oils: Palm oil is the most plentiful vegetable oil, which is

Tidbits Biofuel: In an apparent classic buy the rumor and sell the fact event, just before the grain futures went from higher to lower yesterday, the EPA announced its 2026 and 2027 biofuel blending volumes. As expected, the renewable fuel volume requirements for this and next calendar year are the highest levels in program history. The EPA will maintain the 15 billion conventional gallons biofuel level. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 105,000 mt

Tidbits Iran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal and maintained attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab states, Reuters reported. Trump’s 15-point peace plan stipulated that the Islamic Republic dismantle its main nuclear facilities and use a reduced missile arsenal in self-defense only. Iran would get certain concessions in return, including sanctions relief. Iran wants guarantees that the U.S. and Israel will not resume attacks, alongside reparations for war damages and recognition

Highlights Biofuel: Jarrett Renshaw is a White House reporter for Reuters with a focus on energy policy. He reported late yesterday afternoon: “The Trump administration will release biofuel quotas 2026/27 this week, sometime before Friday's farm event at White House. The quotas have not been materially changed by Iran war price spike concerns, I'm told.” Later yesterday, Renshaw reported: “Trump is expected to waive summer gasoline blending rules - pave way for summer E15 sal

Tidbits Brazil’s ethanol production is forecast to rise by some 4 billion liters (+11%) in the 2026/27 season from a year earlier, which would set a record level, a statement signed by a number of local industry lobbies said on Monday. Brazil is expected to produce 36.66 billion liters of ethanol in the 2025/26 season, according to the country’s national crop agency Conab. Global edible oil markets are behaving unpredictably as energy supply disruptions from the Middle East w

Tidbits Mike Alfred is a private investor, advisor, and corporate board member of several companies. He is the Founder and Managing Partner of Alpine Fox LP, a private investment partnership focused on value equities and Bitcoin. He has 338,600 followers on X, where he posted mid-day yesterday (Sunday): "I just sailed through the Strait of Hormuz. Light wind, good visibility, saw a few other yachts. No sign of conflict. The trading lane is open for business. Oil should soft

Tidbits The USDA 2026 Agriculture Outlook Conference is scheduled for February 19–20. The USDA Chief Economist will present the department’s initial 2026 outlook for the agricultural economy, commodity markets, trade, and farm income. Reuters News conducted a survey of analysts for this morning’s USDA Outlook Forum S&D projections: Biofuel: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House this week for

Tidbits Biofuels consultant and VP of Montana Renewables, Corey Lavinsky, reported progress yesterday on 45Z: “The U.S. Treasury Department expects a 45Z specific version of USDA’s Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator to be used to calculate carbon intensity in the 45ZCF-GREET model. Unfortunately, the calculator isn't ready yet. The public hearing date for 45Z isn't until May 28, 2026, so this will be a long process. The proposed regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuel Productio

Tidbits Futures: March soybeans, and all three March wheat contracts made new highs for the year yesterday and March corn traded to its highest price since before the USDA S&D on 12 January, despite the dollar index being a little higher yesterday for the second day in the past 8 days. Prices were supported by higher crude oil, cold temperatures (more soybean meal and corn for feed demand, fewer farmer sales, potential winter kill on wheat), expected strong export sales today

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Tidbits Interest Rate: Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 3 to lower the benchmark Fed Funds rate by a quarter point to a new target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. One vote was to lower the policy rate by half percent, while two votes supported no change. Post meeting comments included that the Federal Reserve will buy $40 billion worth of U.S. treasury bills over the next 30 days to put more money in circulation; the Fed expects one rate cut in 2026 and