BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 45,480, -1,279 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $58.24, -2.45. Dollar Index  settled at 98.854, +1.14. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,936, +35. Corn December futures settled at $4.13, -6¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = December; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over Dec futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cas

Tidbits Dismissals:  Friday evening President Trump fired more than 4,200 Federal employees from the Treasury Department, U.S. Health Agency, Internal Revenue Service, and the Departments of Education, Commerce, and Homeland Security's cybersecurity division. Roughly 300,000 civil service workers have already been set to leave their jobs this year due to a downsizing campaign initiated earlier this year.   From the AgrInvest Commodities Team in Brazil: "The São Paulo market i

Tidbits Politics and economics:  Thursday evening, the U.S. Senate passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026. It authorizes $913.9 billion in defense spending. The NDAA sets policy and funding priorities for the Department of Defense (or War), including modernization of military capabilities, support for service members, and enhancements to national security technologies. It now heads to the conference committee for reconciliatio

Tidbits Pre-hedging:  When the CBOT closes this afternoon at 1:15 PM Central Time, the combines will continue to harvest corn and beans through the weekend. Some of those bushels are going to be hauled to merchandisers and sold. Therefore, in the last 30 minutes of trading today before the CBOT closes this afternoon, merchandisers are going to sell futures contracts to hedge their estimate of how many bushels they will buy this weekend. This is called pre-hedging . Last Frida

Tidbits S&D: The USDA is not expected to release the October WASDE report tomorrow, but trade estimates were collected. The average estimate for U.S. corn production is 16.632 billion bushels with the yield of 184.8 bpa. The September WASDE report showed corn production at 16.814 billion bushels with a yield of 186.7 bpa. U.S. soybean production's average estimate is 4.267 billion bushels with a yield at 53.1 bpa, compared to 4.301 billion bushels and 53.5 bpa in September. U

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the sales size or

Tidbits U.S. farming: The Trump administration was expected to announce yesterday a plan to bail out U.S. farmers, but a White House spokeswoman said: “No decisions regarding new agricultural policies have been made.” Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his 2025 U.S. corn yield estimate by 1 bushel to 181 bpa, while the soybean yield forecast remained unchanged at 52 bpa. His bias is neutral-to-lower for both crops. U.S. farmers are cautiously optimistic about the long term but facing

Tidbits Farm aid: The Trump administration is expected to announce a plan as soon as Tuesday to bail out U.S. farmers stung by trade disputes and big harvests, with the initial outlay potentially totaling up to $15 billion. The plan, however, could be difficult to roll out as an ongoing government shutdown prevents the kind of Congressional action needed to approve such a large payout, and existing government reserves fall short. Analysts estimate U.S. corn harvest was 29% co

Tidbits Harvest report:  From Central Ohio, double crop soybeans made 56 bushels after 12 tons of chopped triticale. Unlike most of the Eastern Corn Belt, this field had a 3 inch rain on the first day of August and another 1.5 inches through the first week of September.     Crude oil:  The OPEC+ members met yesterday to decide if they should increase daily production in November by 137,000 or 548,000 barrels per day or some amount in between. Saudi Arabia wanted a big increas

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 46,758, +511 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $60.69, -4.50. Dollar Index  settled at 97.712, -0.47. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,901, -358. Corn December futures settled at $4.19, -3¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = December; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over Dec futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash

Tidbits Harvest report  from Northeast Illinois farmer: "I can verify yield difference on beans: beans planted early April were 25 bushels more than beans planted 3rd week in May."   U.S. weather:  Last evening’s 6 to 10 day forecast predicts the hot weather will continue for the Midwest and Eastern U.S. with a chance for rain in the Western Corn Belt.     Brazil weather from AgrInvest Commodities: "After September's rains, the atmosphere is clearing up again in the Center-No

Tidbits Basis Bids:  On Thursday, St. Louis basis changes were: Soybean -12X (12¢ under November futures), was 10¢, the strongest level since August 13th. Corn 8¢ firmer to 4 over the December futures price. Soft Red Winter wheat was up 16¢ at -17Z (17¢ under December futures price). The Lower Mississippi is expected to drop below 8 feet by next Friday.   President Trump and Chinese President Xi  are scheduled to meet on 31 October.   Crude oil:  With crude oil refinery runs

Tidbits Basis bids: With all the recent talk about shallow water on the Lower Mississippi reducing barge capacity and increasing the cost of freight, we were surprised to learn that the soybean basis on the Lower River actually firmed 6 to 7¢ last week. Even more surprising is the soybean basis on the Upper Mississippi firmed 11 to 22¢ yesterday! What do they know that we do not know? Our guess is they know China will be buying U.S. soybeans. Rapid harvest progress, no China

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Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the sales size or

Tidbits The corn stocks  number yesterday was 82 million bushels higher than the highest estimate and 196 million bushels more than the average estimate. Yesterday’s low on December corn was lower than the last two lows made on corrections after making new highs for the move in September. The trend of higher highs and higher lows since 12 August has been broken and the price went below the 20-day moving average, which is a bearish technical indicator. However, the SuperTrend

The numbers were: Negative to Bearish Corn and Wheat Neutral Soybeans CBOT 30 Minutes After Report Dec corn -6 Nov beans -8 July CBOT...

Tidbits Quarterly Grain Stocks  (inventory) Report will be released today at 11 AM Central by the USDA. It will state the amount of all commodities in the U.S. as of 1 September 2025. The 2025 small grains production final (until possibly January) will also be issued. Small grains include all classes of wheat, oats, barley, and rye. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 135,660 mts of old crop corn to Mexico and 110,668 mts of old crop corn to unknown.

Tidbits The Quarterly Grain Stocks Report  will be issued tomorrow at 11 AM Central. This September stocks report includes a look back at the last three marketing years to see if the current inventory is reasonable given the crop production and consumption numbers of each of those years. Once every 10 or so years, there is a huge surprise in September. However, during the past six years, USDA has made some adjustments “out-of-schedule” for past marketing years.   The most rec

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 46,247, -68 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $65.19, +2.47. Dollar Index  settled at 98.182, +0.53. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 2,259, +56. Corn December futures settled at $4.22, -2¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = December; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over Dec futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash p