BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Cattle and feeder cattle  were lower yesterday after a report this weekend of the first human screwworm case in the U.S. which was found in Maryland. The person had just returned from El Salvador. The Fed: Yesterday President Trump fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook because she claimed two homes were her main residence on her mortgage applications. Wheat: Seven of the last ten years, soft red winter December wheat futures made its low in the last half of August

Tidbits Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump expressed hope that their White House summit yesterday with European leaders could eventually result in trilateral talks with President Putin over ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. Meanwhile, the war continues with no end in sight. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 124,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown. Pesticides:  The Make America Healthy Again Commission expects to recommend no action

Tidbits S&D: Today at 11AM Central time the USDA will release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which is known as WASDE or just S&D and includes U.S. estimates. The key numbers will be corn and soybean yields for the 2025 crops and changes in demand for old and new crops. The market expects record corn yield by more than 5 bushels per acre and a record bean yield by almost a full bushel. Most market analysts say soybeans were sharply higher ye

Tidbits Crude & palm oil:  India’s top crude refiners did not purchase any crude from Russia last week after President Trump threatened secondary tariffs on the buyers of Russian products. However, alternative crude sources were so few, the Indians decided to off-load more than 3 million barrels of Russia’s flagship Urals grade over the weekend. Bloomberg reports that Indian Prime Minister Modi did not instruct local oil refineries to stop purchasing Russian oil and did not m

Tidbits Multiple weather forecasters stated yesterday conditions were forming that could produce a Derecho last night from Central South Dakota southeast through Iowa into Illinois.     Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 35,000 mt of old crop corn to unknown 194,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown 225,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico.   US and Chinese  officials met Monday in Sweden, trying to agree to extend the trade truce that is set to expire August 12.

Tidbits Those of you who must deliver corn and beans this fall , if you have not already assessed production in your area versus normal production compared to the fall delivery basis being offered now, get with it. Normally, fall delivery basis needs to be set very late July or the first week of August. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes  closed at record highs  yesterday, as optimism over strong corporate earnings outweighed ongoing trade tensions. It is very discouraging

Tidbits Yesterday’s new crop corn futures  price action was technically significant. For example, December corn made new contract lows and then traded higher than Friday’s high and settled even with Friday’s high. If it had settled higher than Friday’s high, that would have been a trend changing indicator called a “key reversal.” If December corn had closed just under Friday's high, that would have been a “hook reversal,” a bullish indicator, but not as bullish as a key rever

Tidbits In hindsight, Sunday’s CBOT opening was heavily influenced by disappointment that there were no  trade deals  announced by President Trump Thursday evening despite the number of rain days in the Western Corn Belt declining during the weekend. We expected the weather forecast to provide more support than it did. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday morning that the Trump administration will announce several trade deals or tariff actions within the next 48 ho

Highlights The USDA Grain Inventory and Actual Planted Acreage  Reports were so absolutely neutral, that the biggest news of the day from USDA was the corn crop conditions added 3% this past week to the top two condition categories after losing 2% a week ago. Soybean crop condition ratings were unchanged. Corn stocks were less than a year ago and almost as expected. Of the remaining old crop corn, 2.556 billion bushels (3.026 a year ago) were still on the farm and 2.087 billi

Tidbits On June 23, crude oil  prices plummeted over 6%, after Iran launched a missile attack on the U.S. military base at Al Udeid in Qatar in retaliation for U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, which had initially pushed Brent to a five-month high. Iran’s attack, which Iran’s officials linked to the broader escalation following U.S. and Israeli actions, did not disrupt oil or gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and Qatar Energy reported no i

Highlights Bio Fuel consultant, Corey Lavinsky, reports the Senate's proposed changes to the 45Z clean fuel  credit have been released &...

Tidbits Former Minnesota farmer, now Brazil’s 25-year experienced agricultural consultant, Kory Melby, posted on X yesterday afternoon: “I think today's corn market action will reverse quickly in the coming days as the models revert back to old forecasts. I think today was a counter trend move fake out.” Cash soybean export trader, Eduardo Vanin, with AgrInvest Commodities in Brazil reported yesterday soybeans from Brazil net cost  to China for September shipment was 215¢ ove

Tidbits The USDA reported the crush numbers for April after the close yesterday. The soybean crush was 202 million bushels. That is 13.5% more beans crushed this past April than April 2024! The canola crush was 161,022 tons, down 14.6% from a year ago. Cottonseed once refined was 24.7 million lbs, down 12%. The April corn crush was 475 million bushels, up 1% from a year ago. Corn for ethanol was also up 1% at 426 million bushels. In April, Canadian canola  crushing was 0.92 m

Tidbits Corn planting progress  is now at 87% vs 85% 5-year average. Corn crop conditions were rated at 68% good or excellent vs 75% this time last year. Soybean planting progress is now at 76% vs 68% 5-year average. Winter wheat сonditions were rated 50% good or excellent. Dr. Michael Cordonnier reduced his Argentine soybean forecast by 1.5 million mts to 48.5 million mts (USDA 49) due to flooding, while maintaining his Argentine corn estimate at 50 million mts (USDA 50), as

Tidbits Late morning yesterday, President Trump issued this press release: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 145,000 mts of soybean meal to the Philippines.   Goldman Sachs has increased its global oil demand  forecast but maintained its oil price forecast at $60 per barrel of Brent crude and $56 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate, despite current trading values exceeding those projections.

Highlights The U.S. and China trade agreement details announced yesterday morning: A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Both Countries dropped their tariff rates by 115 percent points. The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduced from 145% to 30%. China’s tariffs on U.S. goods will be 10%, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 91% removed. China removed all non-tariff countermeasures (all “lame” excuses like quotas, phyto-sanitary restrictions, etc.) China sent their deputy minist

Tidbits There were two major factors that crushed the corn market yesterday: A weather forecast which will allow most of the nation’s remaining 60% corn acres to be planted in the next 10 days and the market’s conclusion that Brazil’s safrinha crop will be a bin buster because April rainfall was more than it was last year. The market ignored that the dry season has started for the safrinha corn and 40% of it was planted after the ideal planting window closed on 22 February an

Tidbits Today is the day to liquidate all May long futures positions and basis contracts to avoid any chance of delivery on May futures.  Both classes of winter wheat made new contract lows in the new crop contracts yesterday. New crop spring wheat traded within 5¢ of its contract low and settled 8¢ above the 28 March low.  Wheat used to trade inversely of the dollar index, but not this spring. The dollar index is down 11% from its 13 January high and just 1% above its low ma

Tidbits China made several announcements yesterday which show they are going to advance their effort to counter the U.S. trade actions that are forcing China to the negotiation table. China will convene an informal U.N. Security Council meeting on April 23 to accuse Washington of bullying and weaponizing tariffs, according to a document that outlines the key elements of a proposed project, initiative, or program at the United Nations. All 193 U.N. members are invited to atten

Tidbits The markets will be closed on 18 April, Good Friday. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to Japan. USDA's second Crop Progress  report had spring wheat now at 7% planted, corn at 4%, soybean at 2%. Winter wheat conditions fell slightly to 47% good or excellent. The USDA on Monday said it had canceled a $3 billion program for climate-smart farming  projects after a review found it did not align with the priorities of the Trump