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Tidbits, E15 Fuel, Ukraine's losses, Cocoa, ENSO, Export Inspections 2/21/24


Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybeans production estimate to 145 mil mt (USDA 156), down 2 mil mts while leaving his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 112 mil mts (USDA 124).


Dr. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean production at 50 mil. mts (USDA 50) and corn production 54 mil. mts (USDA 55).


Agricomp Commodities downgraded Argentina’s soybean crop 1.88 mil mts to 49.5 mil mts due to recent excess heat and lack of rain. They stated they will probably lower the production even further if the dry weather forecast persists for the next 10 days as expected. They left Paraguay’s bean crop at 10 mil mts (USDA 10.3).

March corn, hard red winter and spring wheat all made new contract lows yesterday, but all three closed higher. Corn up 2¼, but all three wheats closed well above Friday’s high. Soybeans gapped higher on Monday evening's opening and did not fill the gap. From a technical standpoint, all of that is friendly market action. Wheat was the leader, but why? Export inspections were toward the low end of the range of estimates. Winter wheat weather around the world was evenly better and worse. CHS said “it seemed that managed money was driving the wheat market higher.”

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