BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Ukraine’s  President Zelensky's powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, who has headed Ukraine's peace negotiation team, quit yesterday, hours after anti-corruption agents raided and searched his home. A wide-spread probe into high-level corruption has sparked public outrage and thrust its leadership into crisis as Trump increases the pressure on Zelensky to reach a settlement.   Crude oil: Two Russian shadow fleet tankers were struck, and likely destroyed, north of t

Tidbits China bought  at least ten more shiploads of U.S. soybeans (~650,000 mts) on Tuesday according to multiple sources within the grain export trade. Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities: China continues buying soybeans from the U.S. Purchases have reached 67 cargoes, ~35% of the program. These purchases make no economic sense — they are political purchases. The losses on these soybeans for crush are enormous, which leads the market to think: regardless of price, the st

Tidbits Ukraine:  On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio led the talks in Geneva with a high-level Ukrainian delegation after Ukraine and its European allies rejected the U.S. peace plan because of the major concessions to Russia.   Rubio said significant progress was made on crafting a plan to end the war in Ukraine during the talks, but no agreement was reached on how to guarantee Kyiv's security amid concerns about the threat posed by Russia.   European officials j

Tidbits Russia-Ukraine:  Sharply lower crude oil yesterday was primarily due to the prospect of the war between Russia and Ukraine ending next week.   President Trump is telling Ukraine’s President Zelensky to sign a new peace proposal by Thanksgiving or risk losing U.S. support. U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll delivered the message to Zelensky on Thursday in the form of a 28-point plan drafted by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev. The

Tidbits Russia-Ukraine:  On the surface, Trump’s meeting with President Putin was a total failure. Trump had said he wanted a cease fire in Russia’s war with Ukraine and a framework for a lasting peace. The culture of Eastern Europe and a lack of a Ukrainian representative made Trump’s goals highly unlikely. The anti-Trumper news media is jumping all over this failure. However, Trump and Putin showed friendliness and mutual respect at their press conference. Trump was asked t

Tidbits Inflation: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the July producer price index (PPI) increased 0.9% from June, the largest one month advance since pandemic consumer inflation peaked in June 2022. The market was expecting a 0.2% increase. Many economists and politicians say the increased pace of inflation at the wholesale level of the economy reflects the cost of Trump's tariffs. In any case, wholesale inflation will soon find its way into the retail market as w

Tidbits Corn: Karen Braun was correct when she reported yesterday that U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio at 13.3%, is the lowest for an August USDA projection in three years despite a yield 9.8 bushels above the previous record on the largest corn acreage since 1936. That is quite a testament to the magnitude of the corn demand.      Ukraine: Reuters reported last evening that European leaders and Ukraine's President Zelenskiy spoke with Trump in a last-ditch call hosted by Germa

Tidbits On Sunday, OPEC+  reached a preliminary deal to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day beginning in September as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia amid increasing U.S. pressure on India to halt Russian oil purchases, part of Trump’s effort to bring Moscow to the negotiating table for a peace deal with Ukraine.   The Federal Reserve  Governor Adriana Kugler has resigned from her position with the Fed effective 8 August. She w

Tidbits Yesterday’s new crop corn futures  price action was technically significant. For example, December corn made new contract lows and then traded higher than Friday’s high and settled even with Friday’s high. If it had settled higher than Friday’s high, that would have been a trend changing indicator called a “key reversal.” If December corn had closed just under Friday's high, that would have been a “hook reversal,” a bullish indicator, but not as bullish as a key rever

Tidbits USDA April crush numbers  for soybeans, canola, and corn will be issued 2 PM Central today.   Over the weekend, India  reduced the tariff  on all vegetable oils by 10%. Domestic veg oil supplies are priced higher than any imported oil, according to Tushar Agarwal, market analyst for edible oils.   Yesterday, Ukraine  launched a massive drone strike on Russia  sending drones 2,670 miles (4300 kms) past the battle line, deeper into Russia than ever before. Drone hit mul

Highlights At 11 AM Central time this morning, the USDA will release its monthly S&D. We sent the estimates to you as part of Saturday’s mailing. We expect the numbers to be friendly corn, negative for soybeans, neutral to friendly wheat. Brazil’s situation paraphrased from AgrInvest last evening: “Soybean basis for the export market is rising, especially for March shipments. Sales are increasing rapidly, but soybean stocks at ports are still low. Soybean sales by farmers thi

Highlights December crude oil  made a 4-week low Tuesday after Israel's weekend retaliatory strike was very limited and raised hopes that the direct attacks between Iran and Israel were over for the time being. Iran said on Monday its oil industry was operating normally despite the weekend strike by Israel. The risk premium in oil prices was further reduced Monday when Israel said it was open to a short truce in Gaza in return for the release of a small number of hostages.  

Tidbits Crude oil futures gapped a dollar lower and traded as much as $4.00 lower last evening on the relatively “peaceful” Saturday attack by Israel on Iran. Last evening was the lowest trade in December crude futures since 1 October.   India’s crude oil demand will increase 4% during the final quarter of 2024 amid their festival season that also coincides with increased agricultural activity after the monsoon season, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights, as gasoline a

Highlights The US CPI data (inflation at retail level) for August +0.2% as expected. For the past 12 months, the CPI was up 2.5%, slightly less than the expected 2.6%. However, what the government calls the “core” CPI was up 0.3% in August, which was more than the expected 0.2% and core inflation was up 3.2% for the past 12 months, which was as expected, but well above the Fed’s target of 2%.   As a result of the CPI numbers, the interest rate markets show the odds of a half

S&P Futures We have often mentioned that selling cash corn, beans, or wheat and replacing it with a futures or options position of that same commodity often is not the best strategy at the time.       The reason to re-own a commodity is to make money. Often, the best opportunity, the best risk/reward ratio to make money with futures or options is with a different commodity than the commodity just sold.   We have clients who bought cocoa puts in the spring, wheat puts in May,

Market Retrospective On this date in 2019, it was raining across the Corn Belt as it had most days since the middle of April. July 2019 corn traded to a contract low of $3.43, 57¢ below its January $4.00 high. July soybeans traded to its contract low of $7.91, $1.73 below its winter high.      That day’s planting progress report said 30% of the corn and 9% of the beans were planted. Normal planting progress was 66% for corn and 29% for beans.     July corn closed that day at

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation at the wholesale level in March was up 0.2%; the market was expecting the Producer Price Index (PPI) to be up 0.3%. However, there is a credibility problem.   What would you say gasoline prices did in March? Yep, the American Automobile Association (Triple A) reported the price of gasoline in March increased 6.3%. However, the gasoline component of the government’s PPI reported the "seasonally adj

Tidbits Odessa is the largest grain handling port on the Black Sea. It is in Southeast Ukraine. A Russian ballistic missile attack struck a residential area in Odessa on Friday, killing at least 20 people and wounding more than 70.   According to the UN, since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, just over 10,000 civilians have been killed in 2 years, including 3,093 women and 587 children.   At the same time, during the 5 months of conflict in the Gaza Strip, more than

Tomorrow begins the third year of the Russian/Ukraine war and Russia is gaining momentum.   When the Japanese attacked the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor in 1941, the US not only lost half its navy, but it was woefully unprepared for a war whereas the Japanese military had been expanding its empire throughout China and Southeast Asia since 1931. It took the USA 3 years and 8 months to destroy the Japanese Empire despite placing a priority on the defeat of Nazi Germany ahead

Highlights Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybeans production estimate to 145 mil mt (USDA 156), down 2 mil mts while leaving his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 112 mil mts (USDA 124).   Dr. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean production at 50 mil. mts (USDA 50) and corn production 54 mil. mts (USDA 55).   Agricomp Commodities downgraded Argentina’s soybean crop 1.88 mil mts to 49.5 mil mts due to recent excess heat and lack of rain. They stat