Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Friday's key reversal on the soybeans (new contract high followed by a close lower than the previous day's low) was negated by yesterday's higher close. As a general rule, a lack of follow through on the next trading day is needed to confirm a technical trend change. Fuel & Fertilizer: Diesel prices are climbing fast, and farmers are feeling it in real time. U.S. diesel prices have surged 60% since the start of the war in Iran. With another 30¢ jump in just a week, th

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sales of old crop soybeans: 272,000 mts to China and 206,500 mts to unknown. Chinese purchases of U.S. beans have likely reached 13 million mts with Chinese leader Xi visiting Washington 2 weeks away. The market expects them to buy 25 million during the marketing year. South America: Brazilian September exports of soybean are expected to reach 7.74 million mts, up 11% from a year ago. Their corn exports are expected at onl

Tidbits Yesterday's price weakness for corn, wheat, and beans was a function of residual talk about a deal to get wheat out of Russia and Ukraine (all show, no doubt), fear of Friday’s USDA S&D (normal), and some long position holders taking profit. Early yesterday, soybean export trader with AgrInvest, Eduardo Vanin, said rumors that China had bought a million mts of U.S. soybeans. Later, USDA announced 440,000 mts of beans were booked for export. Maybe another big sale of b

Tidbits After meeting with President Putin Saturday, American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy and other top Ukrainian officials in Kyiv. Zelenskiy, who believes Washington will be key to ⁠any peace deal, has said a window of opportunity to make peace exists before the U.S. begins focusing on its next presidential election. "Security guarantees are needed. A dignified post-war peace is needed. Our proposals have been drawn u

Tidbits Market Comment: December corn opened 2 to 4¢ higher last evening and then proceeded to move 13¢ higher in the first two hours of trading. Wheat was a follower gaining 2¢ less than the corn. Soybeans were down 4 to 7¢ as the Pro Farmers yield numbers were more than a half bushel above the USDA’s. The next USDA crop production report is 11 September, 14 trading days away. A lot can happen between now and 11 September. Keep in mind, StoneX put the corn yield at 184.8 and

Tidbits Corn and Soybean Facts of Life: The only years that corn and soybean futures decline after the first half of September are the years that yields are uniformly better than expected across the Corn Belt. If you think yields across the Corn Belt are not going to be better than the market expects, do not be pricing corn or soybeans yet. Key Put Option Premiums: $4.80 December Corn Put: 12-3¢ (12 and three-eighths) $12.00 November Soybean Put: 17-3¢ $11.00 November Soybean

Tidbits U.S. Crops: The USDA’s 180.7 corn yield reported on 12 August was based upon conditions as of the first of August. Ohio and Indiana were both projected to have record corn yields. Since those numbers were gathered, all 92 counties in Indiana have been declared a disaster due to excessive rain, as have 2 in Ohio, which will probably see several more added in the coming days. The historic flooding, record river crests, downed corn, some hail, and standing water from cen

Tidbits Field feedback from Dave, who farms just northwest of Chicago: “Took a trip to Tulsa over the weekend. In my opinion, Iowa looks great. Corn and beans along with northern half Missouri, southwest Missouri they are chopping or getting ready to harvest corn into Oklahoma, double crop beans look terrible. Came back thru St. Louis up thru Springfield, Bloomington to Rockford, corn has run out of gas, yellow green look like middle September, beans look great. Keep in mind

Tidbits The first case of Southern Rust in Iowa this season was confirmed Tuesday morning in a Benton County corn field, according to Iowa State University Extension. The Wheat Quality Council's spring wheat tour estimated North Dakota's spring crop at 45.9 bushels per acre, down from 49.8 last year. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 2 million barrels in the week ended July 17, compared with market expectations for a 1.25 million-barrel draw. National gasoline stocks rose by

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of: 340,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 256,634 mts of new crop soybeans to Mexico 110,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown The International Grains Council (IGC), in its latest Grain Market Report, sees global grains crop dropping by 2.7% (69 million mts) from last year’s record of 2.49 billion mts. Much of the fall is reflected in smaller anticipated corn and wheat crops, but with oats, sorghum and rye

Tidbits July CBOT options expire Friday. All long July futures and July basis contracts must be liquidated or rolled no later than Monday to avoid any possibility of being assigned delivery. July corn was a bit stronger than September corn yesterday. That is good if you have July futures or basis contracts to roll to September. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 30,000 mt of old crop corn and 70,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico. Livestock: The num

Tidbits The CBOT futures markets are closed today for Juneteenth Day. They will reopen Sunday evening at usual times. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sales of: 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 120,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown 285,775 mt of new crop corn to Mexico Algeria bought between 800-850,000 mts of milling wheat yesterday at $265/mt CFR (Cost and Freight) for August shipment. The grain is likely sourced from the Black Sea and E

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 115,000 mts of new crop corn to Colombia. Biofuel: The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) filed a lawsuit Friday in the D.C. Circuit court challenging the 2026-2027 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes finalized by the EPA in March. The AFPM claims EPA’s “Set 2 rule” is the largest and most expensive RFS iteration in history and is the single most expensive regulation of President Trump’s second te

Tidbits Market Comment: It is normal for the price of corn to decline when the market comes to the conclusion that the crop is going to get planted and off to a good start. Monday’s Crop Progress Report assured the market the corn crop is, in fact, off to a good start and remaining acres will easily be planted before the insurance date. Better yet, widespread rain in most of the Corn Belt on the newly planted corn was predicted and falling the past three days in many Corn Bel

Tidbits The USDA will release its May S&D at 11 AM Central today, which will include the first of 36 monthly estimates for the 2026/27 crops. Flash Sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 220,000 mts of old crop corn, 160,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico and 128,000 mts of old crop to South Korea. China’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.2% in April 2026 from 1% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 0.8%. President Trump will arrive in Chi

Tidbits Fuel: The Department of Treasury has scheduled a public hearing for 27 May on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. The proposed rule defines eligibility, emissions rates, and certification requirements. California’s year-end data has just been released. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) consumption reached 119.5 million gallons in 2025. U.S. Economy: Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose nearly 1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7% as both indexes made new highs. The Dow J

Tidbits The U.S. and Iran launched new attacks yesterday as they fought for control of the Strait of Hormuz. Several merchant ships in the Persian Gulf reported explosions or fires. The U.S. said it had destroyed six small Iranian military boats. Iran attacked and set ablaze a large U.S. military base and oil port in the United Arab Emirates. Crude oil futures were up $4.48 yesterday. U.S. and China tensions took a turn for the worse over the weekend as Bloomberg reported tha

Tidbits The weather forecast is predicting limited rainfall through next week for Western Kansas, Eastern Colorado, and Nebraska with no rain in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The update to the Drought Monitor yesterday morning shows 70% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in drought. That is the largest since 2023 and the largest drought area for this time of the growing season since 2022. Total global grains production is expected to set a record during this marketing season,

Tidbits Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks reports will be released by the USDA today at 11 AM Central. Here is the May futures price change on the reports release days in previous years:

Tidbits The Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged yesterday afternoon, as was expected. Flash sale: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of new crop soybean meal to unknown. Oil exports through Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port on ‌the Red Sea are projected to reach a high of 3.8 million barrels per day this month. Average loadings from that port rose to 2.6 million bpd so far in March, up from 1.4 ​million bpd in February and 1.3 million bpd in January.