BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits The weather forecast is predicting limited rainfall through next week for Western Kansas, Eastern Colorado, and Nebraska with no rain in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The update to the Drought Monitor yesterday morning shows 70% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in drought. That is the largest since 2023 and the largest drought area for this time of the growing season since 2022. Total global grains production is expected to set a record during this marketing season,

Tidbits Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks reports will be released by the USDA today at 11 AM Central. Here is the May futures price change on the reports release days in previous years:

Tidbits The Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged yesterday afternoon, as was expected. Flash sale: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of new crop soybean meal to unknown. Oil exports through Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port on ‌the Red Sea are projected to reach a high of 3.8 million barrels per day this month. Average loadings from that port rose to 2.6 million bpd so far in March, up from 1.4 ​million bpd in February and 1.3 million bpd in January.

Tidbits 8 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, 5 more than the previous day, as S&P Global reported. Two of the ships were sanctioned vessels loaded with Iranian natural gas. Iran's new leader made his first statements, calling for national unity and stating that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed. Brazilian soybeans were having trouble getting phyto-sanitary certificates, as we mentioned yesterday. Cargill announced later yesterday it had suspended soyb

Tidbits Crude Oil: Two tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were attacked within the territorial waters of Iraq last evening, causing both to catch fire in the Persian Gulf. A total of 25 crew members onboard the vessels have been evacuated so far by authorities in Iraq. Despite Donald Trump's statements, the U.S. refuses to escort civilian ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the high risk of attacks, Reuters reports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) approved yesterday

Tidbits S&D: As expected, the USDA did not make any significant changes to the U.S. balance sheets, as ending stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat remained unchanged. Corn global inventories rose nearly 3 million mts; production rose 1.7 million mts in Ukraine and 1 million mts in Brazil, while down 1 million mts in Argentina. The average U.S. Farm price for 2025/26 at $4.10 and for 2026/27 it was pegged at $4.20 in February.

Tidbits The USDA will issue its March S&D at 11 AM Central time today. There were new contract highs in the soy complex and also in a few deferred corn futures months amid crude oil spikes. AgRural reports Brazil’s first corn harvest hit 42%, lagging the 54% seen a year earlier. Planting of Brazil's second corn crop reached 82%, compared with 92% a year earlier. While corn plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 94%, just shy of the 96% pace from a year ago. Brazilian farmers h

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 154,000 mts of new crop corn and 24,000 mts of 2027 crop corn to Japan. Soybean Demand & Oil: Weekly Export Sales reported 407,100 mts of soybeans were booked for export this marketing year which ends 31 August. Soybean sales were down 49% from a week ago and down 30% from the 4-week average. China bought 75,500 mts, but 66,000 mts was switched from an unknown buyer to China. So, China only bought 9,500 mts

Tidbits Canada's wheat exports for this marketing year to date reached a record 11.25 million mts, up 1.19 million mts from last year’s record pace. Soybeans: Friday’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, which is issued every Friday, and we report the numbers on Sundays as part of our Weekly Basis, showed the big spec funds were net buyers of 94,316 of soybean contracts for the week ending last Tuesday. Peak Trading Research r

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 192,350 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown. Biofuel: Republican U.S. lawmakers plan to create a task force to study potential year-round sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline blends in the U.S., after an attempt to pass such legislation in a funding bill this week fell through. Farm groups and Midwest ethanol advocates blasted the decision to form a task force instead of passing legislation, calling it a blo

Tidbits Ag Futures will not trade Sunday night to Monday afternoon morning due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Grain futures will reopen Monday evening at normal times. Exports: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to South Korea and 334,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. Chinese customs data showed they imported 8.044 million mts of beans from all sources in December 2025, up 1.2% from December 2024. Total imports in 2025 at 111.8

Tidbits Trade talks: Trump's special trade representative, John Cole, who was in Minsk in recent days for trade talks with Belarus’ officials, announced yesterday that the U.S. is lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash. Belarus is the world’s third leading potash exporter behind Canada and Russia. Export sales: As we reported yesterday, on Friday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 93,895 mts of old crop soybean meal to Mexic

Tidbits President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela should be considered "closed in its entirety." He gave no further details as the U.S. ramps up pressure on President Nicolas Maduro's government. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said yesterday that a delegation headed by security council secretary Rustem Umerov was on its way to the U.S. to continue talks on an agreement to end the war with Russia. Umerov has been put i

Tidbits Harvest report from Northeast Illinois farmer: "I can verify yield difference on beans: beans planted early April were 25 bushels more than beans planted 3rd week in May." U.S. weather: Last evening’s 6 to 10 day forecast predicts the hot weather will continue for the Midwest and Eastern U.S. with a chance for rain in the Western Corn Belt. Brazil weather from AgrInvest Commodities: "After September's rains, the atmosphere is clearing up again in the Center-Nort

Tidbits Basis Bids: On Thursday, St. Louis basis changes were: Soybean -12X (12¢ under November futures), was 10¢, the strongest level since August 13th. Corn 8¢ firmer to 4 over the December futures price. Soft Red Winter wheat was up 16¢ at -17Z (17¢ under December futures price). The Lower Mississippi is expected to drop below 8 feet by next Friday. President Trump and Chinese President Xi are scheduled to meet on 31 October. Crude oil: With crude oil refinery runs red

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 185,000 mts of new crop soybean meal to the Philippines. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 620,000 barrels last week after a 970,000 barrel decline the previous week. The market expected a 3.4 million-barrel drawdown. S&P Global PMI reports: Russia composite (includes manufacturing and services) PMI: 49.1 vs 47.5 expected Russia services PMI: 50.0 vs 48.3 expected Great Britain composite PMI: 53.5 vs 53.0

Tidbits All September grain futures positions and September basis contracts must be priced or rolled today before the close. As expected, CBOT contracts were weak yesterday as they usually are a few days before the first notice day for deliveries on futures contracts, which is Friday. Today is a toss-up as far as traditional up or down price day, but first notice day is usually an up day. The Hard Red Winter Wheat futures market made new contract lows each of the past two day

Tidbits Brazil: IMEA is a professional organization for Mato Grosso farmers, Brazil’s leading agricultural state. IMEA reported that cotton harvest for the state is 55.2% complete. Last year at this time, cotton harvest was 74.2% complete and the five years average is 78.6%. Farmers want to plant soybeans in those cotton fields in two weeks! In Brazil, the second corn crop harvest is well underway, but the weather is predicted to turn wet and cold the first week of Septembe

Tidbits On Sunday, OPEC+ reached a preliminary deal to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day beginning in September as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia amid increasing U.S. pressure on India to halt Russian oil purchases, part of Trump’s effort to bring Moscow to the negotiating table for a peace deal with Ukraine. The Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has resigned from her position with the Fed effective 8 August. She was

Tidbits August CBOT options expire Friday. Historical data suggests that poor corn pollination due to heat or drought could result in yield losses ranging from 1.5 bushels per acre per day of extreme heat (95+°F) during pollination which is approximately 0.8-1% per day based on a 182 bushels/acre trend yield. President Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. and Japan have struck a deal that will lower the hefty tariffs he had threatened to impose on goods from Japan while extractin