Tidbits, Crude Oil Outlook, U.S. Budget & CPI, Rails, Monopolies & Markets, Export Sales 9/12/25
- Wright team
- Sep 12
- 5 min read
Tidbits
The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 11 AM Central Time today. As expected, CBOT ag markets were higher yesterday as they recovered from oversold conditions the previous two days. The market will trade the production numbers in the few first minutes or so after the report is released, then the market will trade the U.S. carryover numbers for 3 to 20 minutes, and then the market will trade the world carryovers into the close.
If crop production is cut more than expected, the demand will also be reduced; demand just might be reduced as much as the production, leaving carryover nearly unchanged. If that happens, the market will leap higher, then drop like a rock before cooler minds evaluate the world carryover prediction and trade accordingly the rest of the day.
Crude oil: In a major policy change announcement, the International Energy Agency (IEA) yesterday reversed its long-standing bearish crude oil demand outlook and now predicts global crude oil demand will be up 740,000 bpd this year from 2024. The IEA, which has repeatedly predicted that world crude oil demand growth will peak before 2030, released a report admitting that both oil and natural gas demand will continue growing for decades to come. This is a major change from fantasy back to reality.
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