Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Today is the last business day of the week and the month. It would be reasonable to expect fund managers would want to lock-in some profits. Given how sharp the declines were this month, profits would be locked-in by the fund managers by short covering (buying futures contracts to offset their sold positions at much higher prices). Give some thought to how much corn might be moving to town over the weekend to assess how much pre-hedging there might be this afternoon.

Tidbits Flash Sales: USDA announced yesterday the sales of old crop soybeans: 330,000 mts to China and 283,450 mts to unknown. NOPA crush for September was 196.3 million bushels of soybeans, below the trade estimate of 203.7 million and less than a year ago. This is the first year to year decline for any month since March 2025. No question, the lack of soybeans in many areas restricted crush bushels. Do you remember Cargill’s Iowa Falls crush plant had a positive basis of 105

Tidbits Do not forget that pre-hedging of corn and soybeans on Friday afternoon will be anticipated by the spec funds earlier in the day. The low on December corn this week was made on Monday, 4¾¢ above last Friday’s report day $4.70¼ low. Soybean Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sales of 470,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. This is the first such deal since the September summit between ‌Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Washington. Before the latest deal

Tidbits The corn inventory posted by USDA added 4 days’ of use to the carryout. Most analysts expect the 2026 corn yield to decline 2 bushels, which would fully offset the increased carry-in. There was no reason for soybeans to sell-off 10¢ as the carryover number was 8 million bushels less than the market expected. The wheat carryover was 23 million bushels more than expected. While that is not a friendly number, it sure does not justify wheat losing nearly as much as it did

Tidbits The Federal Reserve increased the Fed Fund rate 25 basis points (from 3.75% to 4%). The decision by the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee was unanimous. The Fed chair attributed this to the fight against inflation. This was the first time the Fed had raised rates in three years; prior to that, it had cut rates three times in 2024 and three times in 2025. Donald Trump sharply criticized the FOMC’s decision to raise the benchmark interest rate, stating that it was

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sale of 264,000 mts of old crop corn to Mexico. Soy Crush & Exports: The total volume of soybean processing in the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil during the September–August 2025/26 marketing year reached a record high of 176.7 million mts, 5.2% higher from the previous year’s 167.9 million, according to Oil World from Germany. The U.S. crushed 72.1 million mts and 8.4% more compared to a year ago, Brazil at 61.76 million and

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sales of old crop soybeans: 272,000 mts to China and 206,500 mts to unknown. Chinese purchases of U.S. beans have likely reached 13 million mts with Chinese leader Xi visiting Washington 2 weeks away. The market expects them to buy 25 million during the marketing year. South America: Brazilian September exports of soybean are expected to reach 7.74 million mts, up 11% from a year ago. Their corn exports are expected at onl

Tidbits The NOPA soybean crush in June was 214.34 million bushels of soybeans, up 2.7% from May and up 15.7% from a year ago. It exceeded trade expectations as the daily pace of processing rebounded from an eight-month low posted in May to the strongest level in three months. You can learn about the NOPA via the link: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/about-the-nopa The USDA is now accepting applications for its Agribusiness Trade Mission to Vietnam on November 9-12. Vie

Tidbits Iran: President Trump will address the nation tomorrow evening to explain his Iran plan. The U.S. and Iran conducted military strikes with each other overnight. Trump said the U.S. military will continue to strike Iran in the coming days and into next week. Brazil: CONAB raised its 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production estimate a bit to 180.57 million mts, from 180.25 million mts previously. They raised their Brazilian corn production forecast 1% to 141.7 million mts.

Tidbits July CBOT Options expire today because this is the last Friday of the month with at least two business days the following week. Every corn futures contract from July 2026 through July 2027 made a new contract low yesterday and closed higher than the high for the previous day. That is what technicians call a “key reversal,” a fairly reliable indication of a price trend change. In recent weeks, corn futures contracts made two “hook reversals,” which is a new low followe

Tidbits The Corn Belt weather a week from now is going to be hot and wet. Iran: President Trump threatened to restart war with Iran on Sunday even as Vice President JD Vance met Iranian officials for the first talks under an interim peace deal that was overshadowed by Tehran's announcement it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz. Q&A: Inflation Hyperinflation: Gilbert asked when will we see hyperinflation? Economists follow Philip Cagan's classic definition of hyperinfla

June S&D Yesterday’s USDA June S&D was about as expected except for the increase of South American corn crops. USDA increased old crop corn imports by 3 million bushels which carried through to the carryover. Old crop soybean exports were reduced by 20 million bushels, but the old crop soybean crush was increased the same 20 million bushels, which left the carryover unchanged at 340 million bushels, a 29 day supply. There was no change in the 2026 corn or bean production numb

Tidbits June S&D: At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its June S&D. It most likely will have very little impact on the markets. It is too early for USDA to change yields or acres for corn and beans. Wheat production could be interesting, but wheat harvest is just getting a good start. The demand side could see an increase in corn exports, a decrease in soybean exports with an increase in soybean crush. Will USDA reduce or increase the size of Brazil’s safrinha co

Tidbits Biofuel: The U.S. House has passed the year-around E15 legislation. Now to the Senate, ​where it needs 60% of votes, and get a signature ​from President Donald Trump to be enacted. However, opinions are divided. Some experts believe that increased domestic corn consumption will help farmers who produce corn, while others believe the bill will increase fuel costs, further increasing expenses and pressure soybean producers. The U.S. PPI, producer prices index, soared 1.

Tidbits Yesterday’s S&D was decided bullish for wheat, friendly for soybeans and longer term friendly for corn because the world corn carryout on 31 August 2027 is projected to be a 77 day supply. Four years ago this week, December corn traded to $7.66 with the world new crop corn carryout projected to be a 94 day supply. Granted, the U.S corn carryout that year was projected to be 34 day supply whereas this year’s domestic new crop corn carryover is projected to be a 44 day

Tidbits Planting Feedback: Jeff in Minnesota sent us this information yesterday morning: “Friend of mine around Charleston (far southeast) Missouri called last night. Record heat temps along with dry soils. Planting corn 2.5” deep to get in moisture. And he is a no till guy. He said guys around there planted all their corn in 4 days.” Brazilian agency CONAB estimated yesterday total corn production 1.3 million higher, at 139.6 million mts, but below last year’s 141.2 million.

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 126,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown and 100,000 mts of old crop soybean meal to Italy. Strait of Hormuz: There is a very slight chance of a long term solution to the Iran War will come from Islamabad, Pakistan, the site of the first face-to-face talks between U.S. and Iranian people which is under way this morning. Vice President JD Vance is leading the U.S. delegation. Before a long-term deal can b

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to South Korea. Annual U.S. retail inflation was reported at 2.8% in February, the same pace as in the previous month and matching expectations. Core annual inflation excluding food and energy was 3%, down from 3.1% in the prior month. Both remain well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 on the week ending April 4th, higher than was expected, t

Tidbits Iran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal and maintained attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab states, Reuters reported. Trump’s 15-point peace plan stipulated that the Islamic Republic dismantle its main nuclear facilities and use a reduced missile arsenal in self-defense only. Iran would get certain concessions in return, including sanctions relief. Iran wants guarantees that the U.S. and Israel will not resume attacks, alongside reparations for war damages and recognition

Tidbits Ag Futures will not trade Sunday night to Monday afternoon morning due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Grain futures will reopen Monday evening at normal times. Exports: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to South Korea and 334,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. Chinese customs data showed they imported 8.044 million mts of beans from all sources in December 2025, up 1.2% from December 2024. Total imports in 2025 at 111.8