BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 11 AM Central Time today. As expected, CBOT ag markets were higher yesterday as they recovered from oversold conditions the previous two days. The market will trade the production numbers in the few first minutes or so after the report is released, then the market will trade the U.S. carryover numbers for 3 to 20 minutes, and then the market will trade the world carryovers in

Tidbits CBOT grain and oilseed markets  are usually lower the two to four days before the USDA releases its monthly S&D. Yesterday, everything except bean oil was lower after being lower on Tuesday. Typically, prices reach a price low enough that some of the shorts (traders who sold before they buy) decide to take some profit and liquidate their short position by buying futures which results in a very modest rally the day before the S&D. The September S&D will be issued at 10

Tidbits Inflation: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the July producer price index (PPI) increased 0.9% from June, the largest one month advance since pandemic consumer inflation peaked in June 2022. The market was expecting a 0.2% increase. Many economists and politicians say the increased pace of inflation at the wholesale level of the economy reflects the cost of Trump's tariffs. In any case, wholesale inflation will soon find its way into the retail market as w

Tidbits The National Oilseed Processors Association ( NOPA ) reported yesterday at midday they crushed 185.709 million bushels of soybeans in June, a 6% increase from June 2024. The NOPA soybean crush has now set new monthly records 8 of the 10 months this marketing year. Soybean oil stocks were down 6.7 million to 1.366 billion lbs., slightly higher than trade expectations. This is the smallest June oil inventory since 2004, and 16% lower than a year earlier. To learn more a

Tidbits Soybeans traded sharply lower yesterday because bean oil traded down the 3¢ per pound daily limit yesterday morning. That was because EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said late Wednesday that setting the biofuel mandates for 2026 can be expected in the coming months, which was much later than the market expected. The real bean oil hammer were rumors reported by news wire services that the required Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) levels in 2026 will be 4.65 billion gallo

Tidbits The U.S. crude oil  inventory increased by 4.29 million barrels in the reporting week ending 9 May, a sharp reversal from the prior week's 4.49 million-barrel draw, according to the American Petroleum Institute. The markets expected a 2.4 million-barrel decline. None-the-less, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were up $1.72 a barrel yesterday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday morning reported the annual inflation  rate at the retail level decline

Highlights The biggest news piece from yesterday’s S&D was the USDA increased corn exports by 100 million bushels. As many expected, the corn for feed was reduced by 25 million bushels, so the carryout was reduced by 75 million bushels, which took the carryout from a 37 day supply to a 35 day supply. The market expected a 30 million bushel reduction in the corn carryout. USDA did not change any of the corn or soybean production numbers for Brazil, Argentina, or Paraguay. Stud

Tidbits The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was reported yesterday morning. It is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level. It was slightly higher than expected at 0.4% for the month of November. Unemployment claims were 21,000 higher than expected at 242,000. The market continues to expect an interest rate cut Wednesday even though the inflation numbers do not justify it. The market has priced in a 98% chance of a 25 basis points cut next week to 4.25-4.50% on the Fed

Tidbits U.S. inflation  at the retail level increased 0.3% in November, the most in 7 months, but the Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates next week to support job growth. However, the decline in the inflation rate has come to an end and the Federal Reserve's inflation goal of 2% per year is well below the November annual rate of 3.6%.   Yesterday, the Bank of Canada reduced its base interest by 50 basis points (one-half percent) to 3.25%. Just a few months

Highlights The US CPI data (inflation at retail level) for August +0.2% as expected. For the past 12 months, the CPI was up 2.5%, slightly less than the expected 2.6%. However, what the government calls the “core” CPI was up 0.3% in August, which was more than the expected 0.2% and core inflation was up 3.2% for the past 12 months, which was as expected, but well above the Fed’s target of 2%.   As a result of the CPI numbers, the interest rate markets show the odds of a half

Highlights DTN lead analyst, Todd Hultman, said on August 12 during a webinar about S&D report: “Speculators in the corn market have been encouraged  to hold onto their short positions by the Federal Reserve Board, which is trying to keep prices in check by increasing interest rates… You would think we’re getting down to the lows here somewhere, but technically of course we’re not seeing any signs of that just yet.” Here is Sean Pratt’s summary  for the webinar.   The Consume

Highlights The Producer Price Index for July was reported yesterday +0.1%, better than the expected +0.2%. As a result, the dollar was sharply weaker because interest rates are more likely to be reduced sooner rather than later. A lower dollar makes US products cheaper for foreign buyers. Usually, crude oil is higher when the dollar is weaker, but it is not working that way this week. CBOT commodities used to be supported by a sharply weaker dollar, but not in 2024 and yester

Highlights August options expire tomorrow, Friday, July 26. First notice day for August futures is July 31.   Yesterday morning, the US Government reported a revision of the second quarter GDP of +2.8%; the market expected a +2.1%. The first quarter GDP had been disappointing at +1.4%. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is a measure of consumer spending on goods and services among households. For the second quarter, PCE rate was up 2.6%, down from 3.4% in the first quart

Highlights The USDA lowered old corn carryout 120 million bushels below the lowest estimate by increasing feed use and exports both by 75 million bushels each. Old crop corn imports were increased by 5 million so the carryout was lowered by 145 million to 1,877 million bushels.   New crop corn feed demand was also increased by 75 million bushels and exports were increased 25 million. The new crop production increase of 240 million bushels from additional corn acres was more t

Highlights The USDA will issue its July S&D at 11 AM Central time today.   Yesterday morning, the government reported that inflation during June declined 0.1%; the market expected it to be up 0.1% (measured by Customer Price Index or CPI). For the past 12 months, the inflation rate was 3.0%; the market expected 3.1%. The expectation of an interest rate cut in September for the past two weeks capped with yesterday’s better-than-expected inflation number sent the stocks sharply

Highlights Yesterday’s Producer Price Index (PPI=inflation at the wholesale level) for April was up 0.5%. The market expected +0.3%. In March, the PPI was down 0.1%. The Fed has managed to create a weakening economy with high inflation.   Today we get the inflation rate at the retail level with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Market is looking for a 0.4% increase in CPI in April with the year inflation rate at 3.4%.   Yesterday, President Biden announced a bundle of steep tar

Highlights The Commerce Department said yesterday morning the US economy’s gross domestic product increased at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024, less than half the growth rate of the 4th quarter of 2023. The market expected a 2.4% growth rate.     The first quarter growth's pace was below what the Federal Reserve regards as non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8%.  It was the poorest GDP since the recession ended after the first two quarters of 2022. This GDP

At 10 AM Mountain Time today, the USDA will release its final 2023 Crop Production, Quarterly Grain Inventory as of December 1st, Actual Planted Winter Wheat Acreage Reports and the USA and World S&D.   The market expects slight reductions in 2023 US corn and bean crops, larger corn inventory and a smaller bean inventory than a year ago, with South American production down slightly from last month, and less US winter wheat acres than a year ago. Our mailing yesterday had the

Highlights Yesterday's market action was a classic turn-around  Tuesday action. We hate that phrase because there is no rhyme or reason for it.    The interior Brazil soybean basis is firming. Cash basis traded yesterday in Sorriso for Feb delivery at -290H (290¢ under March futures). That basis was at -380H a few weeks ago.   Kory Melby yesterday morning: "Tough week ahead for MT (Mato Grosso). Rain comes Dec 21 or so. But the below normal Nov and Dec totals will catch up wi

Highlights On Friday, Iraq said it wants OPEC+ to cut oil production at OPEC’s November 26th meeting. Some speculators covered their massive short positions Friday ahead of a weekend uncertainty, but crude was down 4% last week, the third consecutive weekly decline. Confresha is a municipality in northeast Mato Grosso. From October first through the 10th of November in 2022, Confresha received 16.8 inches (427.8 mm) of rain. During the same calendar days in 2023, the Confres