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Tidbits, Soybean Complex & NOPA Crush, Inflation, Weather Forecast, Export Sales 5/16/25

Tidbits


Soybeans traded sharply lower yesterday because bean oil traded down the 3¢ per pound daily limit yesterday morning. That was because EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said late Wednesday that setting the biofuel mandates for 2026 can be expected in the coming months, which was much later than the market expected. The real bean oil hammer were rumors reported by news wire services that the required Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) levels in 2026 will be 4.65 billion gallons, much lower than the 5.25-5.75 billion the market had been discussing for the past year.


In the context of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program, a Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) is an EPA requirement for fuel refiners and importers to blend a specific volume of renewable fuels into their fuel supply. RFS is a program aimed at increasing the use of renewable fuels like biofuel, and RVOs help ensure that these goals are met.


The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) soybean crush for April was reported just before noon yesterday. The market expected 184.642 million bushels were crushed by NOPA members, but they crushed 190.226 million bushels, 12% more than a year ago. Soy oil inventory was reported to be 1.527 billion lbs, which was above the expected 1.412 billion lbs. by the market. However, Reuters News reporter Karen Braun reported the oil inventory number is the lowest April oil stocks in 10 years!

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