Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Flash Sales: the USDA announced yesterday morning the sales of: 127,000 mts of old crop corn to Japan 558,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 236,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown Wheat: Yesterday weakness in wheat may have been extreme because the CEO of Germany’s largest private cash grain trading firm advised farmers yesterday morning to sell 80-90% of old crop wheat and 50% of new crop. His core arguments:

Tidbits S&D: Today at 11 AM Central Time, the USDA will release its October Crop Production and S&D Reports. Because of the Quarterly Stocks (inventories as of 1 September) issued on 30 September, we know what the corn and soybean carryover and carry-ins will be. What we do not know is new crop yields and the demand projections USDA will use. Basis: Some, maybe most, Western Corn Belt merchandisers weakened their basis 15 to 25¢ yesterday. The reason stated was the off-color

Tidbits After today, the Corn Belt will be mostly rain free for the next ten days. By the middle of next week should have a good “handle” on Corn Belt yields. Will harvest progress pressure corn and bean futures? It might pressure beans because of good yields, but we expect corn yields to be supportive. Farmers will not be selling so much next week to pressure the market, but the psychology of seeing good harvest progress will provide overhead resistance. Pre-hedging is a ter

Tidbits The U.S.-China summit has not yielded any significant new information for the grain markets, and as a result, major grain markets are currently trading lower. The "Busan" trade agreement between the U.S. and China has been extended until 10 January 2027. That was the first announcement yesterday morning from the White House. That means tariffs will remain reduced, and export controls on rare earth elements will continue to be eased. This agreement was signed by the U.

Tidbits Logistics: Iowa has issued weight-limit exemptions for vehicles up to 90,000 pounds gross weight transporting corn, soybeans, hay, straw, silage, stover, fertilizer, manure, and distiller grains. The waiver is effective until October 10 and was granted to help mitigate traffic concerns during harvest time. A farmer association said the waiver will allow a 1,000-acre farmer to use 26 fewer truckloads during this harvest, which is significant during the high fuel prices

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sale of 264,000 mts of old crop corn to Mexico. Soy Crush & Exports: The total volume of soybean processing in the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil during the September–August 2025/26 marketing year reached a record high of 176.7 million mts, 5.2% higher from the previous year’s 167.9 million, according to Oil World from Germany. The U.S. crushed 72.1 million mts and 8.4% more compared to a year ago, Brazil at 61.76 million and

Tidbits Iran & China: On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced new sanctions to strangle Iran economically and target countries and businesses doing business with Iran. Bessent put countries on notice that they will have to work with the United States or face losing access to the global dollar-based financial system. Late Wednesday, a Treasury spokesperson said China would be exempt, which means the soybean market dodged a bullet. High temperatures and heavy rain have

Tidbits Corn and Soybean Facts of Life: The only years that corn and soybean futures decline after the first half of September are the years that yields are uniformly better than expected across the Corn Belt. If you think yields across the Corn Belt are not going to be better than the market expects, do not be pricing corn or soybeans yet. Key Put Option Premiums: $4.80 December Corn Put: 12-3¢ (12 and three-eighths) $12.00 November Soybean Put: 17-3¢ $11.00 November Soybean

Tidbits Soybeans and wheat held up well yesterday after Wednesday’s gains, but corn gave back almost half of Wednesday’s gains despite some Wednesday reports that a derecho may have extended from South Dakota to Virginia. While there was a lot of wind and water damage to crops and buildings, when the sun came up Thursday, the corn crop was not damaged nearly as bad as some analysts suggested. The bullish news for corn that is not going to go away is that both the old and new

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 122,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Weather: The drought monitor as of August 4th shows 70.9% of the U.S. is experiencing abnormal dryness or drought, up 3 points from the previous week, with 48.5% in D1 level drought or higher: corn at 28% (down 1), soybeans at 26% (unchanged), and 58% (up 16 points) of spring wheat acres also impacted. The National Weather Service 7-day forecast expects rain to be lighter

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Feedback: Some farmers in Central Minnesota (Morrison County) said they will start chopping corn Monday if they do not get rain this weekend. The U.S. GDP for the second quarter came in at 1.5% growth rate vs. 1.8% expected. Jobless claims were increased to 197,000 vs. 201,000 expected and below the recent average. The June Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) P

Tidbits Yesterday's mid-day price slump on the CBOT was nothing more than the market taking some profit after several days of gains. The tariffs announcement probably contributed to that. All three commodities traded lower. Only wheat settled lower, but it had gained the most in recent days. Flash sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 126,000 mt of new crop soybeans to unknown. The Spring Wheat Tour on Day Two saw an average yield of 48.1 bushels per acre in northw

Tidbits President Donald Trump delivered a speech to the nation yesterday from the White House with a focus on the 2020 election. He is declassifying documents that he says will show interference by China in the 2020 election. Trump has repeatedly claimed without evidence that there was widespread election fraud six years ago when he lost to President Joe Biden. Trump again pushed for Congress to pass legislation that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote and

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday, the USDA reported new crop soybeans sales: 136,000 mts to China and 120,000 mts to unknown destinations. Soybean crush margins are record high and the U.S. crush pace is reaching breakneck speeds, according to the quarterly report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange released on July 8. Total soybeans crushed for the marketing year-to-date are up 8% compared to a year ago, with the pace consistently reaching monthly records. High diesel prices foll

Tidbits Wheat: The Bangladeshi government has approved the purchase of 220,000 mts of U.S. wheat. Under the new agreement signed in July 2025, Bangladesh began large-scale wheat imports from the United States for the first time. According to the deal, around 700,000 mts of wheat will be imported annually, with the first phase bringing in 220,000 mts at a price of $302–$308 per mt (~$8.30/bu.). Saudi Arabia has issued a tender to purchase 655,000 mts of wheat. Delivery is sche

Tidbits July CBOT Options expire today because this is the last Friday of the month with at least two business days the following week. Every corn futures contract from July 2026 through July 2027 made a new contract low yesterday and closed higher than the high for the previous day. That is what technicians call a “key reversal,” a fairly reliable indication of a price trend change. In recent weeks, corn futures contracts made two “hook reversals,” which is a new low followe

Tidbits The CBOT futures markets are closed today for Juneteenth Day. They will reopen Sunday evening at usual times. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sales of: 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 120,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown 285,775 mt of new crop corn to Mexico Algeria bought between 800-850,000 mts of milling wheat yesterday at $265/mt CFR (Cost and Freight) for August shipment. The grain is likely sourced from the Black Sea and E

June S&D Yesterday’s USDA June S&D was about as expected except for the increase of South American corn crops. USDA increased old crop corn imports by 3 million bushels which carried through to the carryover. Old crop soybean exports were reduced by 20 million bushels, but the old crop soybean crush was increased the same 20 million bushels, which left the carryover unchanged at 340 million bushels, a 29 day supply. There was no change in the 2026 corn or bean production numb

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 115,000 mts of new crop corn to Colombia. Biofuel: The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) filed a lawsuit Friday in the D.C. Circuit court challenging the 2026-2027 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes finalized by the EPA in March. The AFPM claims EPA’s “Set 2 rule” is the largest and most expensive RFS iteration in history and is the single most expensive regulation of President Trump’s second te

Tidbits As we recently stated, corn and bean futures decline after the market gets comfortable that those crops will get planted. It is highly probable corn, beans, and wheat will see a gain 50% to 62% of what they have lost since 13 May. That is the standard technical retracement and profit-taking. The longest sunlight day of the year for the Corn Belt is three weeks from Monday. Soil moisture disappears very fast with 16 to 17 hours of daylight and warm to hot day time temp