Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Iran & China: On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced new sanctions to strangle Iran economically and target countries and businesses doing business with Iran. Bessent put countries on notice that they will have to work with the United States or face losing access to the global dollar-based financial system. Late Wednesday, a Treasury spokesperson said China would be exempt, which means the soybean market dodged a bullet. High temperatures and heavy rain have

Tidbits Corn and Soybean Facts of Life: The only years that corn and soybean futures decline after the first half of September are the years that yields are uniformly better than expected across the Corn Belt. If you think yields across the Corn Belt are not going to be better than the market expects, do not be pricing corn or soybeans yet. Key Put Option Premiums: $4.80 December Corn Put: 12-3¢ (12 and three-eighths) $12.00 November Soybean Put: 17-3¢ $11.00 November Soybean

Tidbits Soybeans and wheat held up well yesterday after Wednesday’s gains, but corn gave back almost half of Wednesday’s gains despite some Wednesday reports that a derecho may have extended from South Dakota to Virginia. While there was a lot of wind and water damage to crops and buildings, when the sun came up Thursday, the corn crop was not damaged nearly as bad as some analysts suggested. The bullish news for corn that is not going to go away is that both the old and new

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 122,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Weather: The drought monitor as of August 4th shows 70.9% of the U.S. is experiencing abnormal dryness or drought, up 3 points from the previous week, with 48.5% in D1 level drought or higher: corn at 28% (down 1), soybeans at 26% (unchanged), and 58% (up 16 points) of spring wheat acres also impacted. The National Weather Service 7-day forecast expects rain to be lighter

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Feedback: Some farmers in Central Minnesota (Morrison County) said they will start chopping corn Monday if they do not get rain this weekend. The U.S. GDP for the second quarter came in at 1.5% growth rate vs. 1.8% expected. Jobless claims were increased to 197,000 vs. 201,000 expected and below the recent average. The June Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) P

Tidbits Yesterday's mid-day price slump on the CBOT was nothing more than the market taking some profit after several days of gains. The tariffs announcement probably contributed to that. All three commodities traded lower. Only wheat settled lower, but it had gained the most in recent days. Flash sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 126,000 mt of new crop soybeans to unknown. The Spring Wheat Tour on Day Two saw an average yield of 48.1 bushels per acre in northw

Tidbits President Donald Trump delivered a speech to the nation yesterday from the White House with a focus on the 2020 election. He is declassifying documents that he says will show interference by China in the 2020 election. Trump has repeatedly claimed without evidence that there was widespread election fraud six years ago when he lost to President Joe Biden. Trump again pushed for Congress to pass legislation that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote and

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday, the USDA reported new crop soybeans sales: 136,000 mts to China and 120,000 mts to unknown destinations. Soybean crush margins are record high and the U.S. crush pace is reaching breakneck speeds, according to the quarterly report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange released on July 8. Total soybeans crushed for the marketing year-to-date are up 8% compared to a year ago, with the pace consistently reaching monthly records. High diesel prices foll

Tidbits Wheat: The Bangladeshi government has approved the purchase of 220,000 mts of U.S. wheat. Under the new agreement signed in July 2025, Bangladesh began large-scale wheat imports from the United States for the first time. According to the deal, around 700,000 mts of wheat will be imported annually, with the first phase bringing in 220,000 mts at a price of $302–$308 per mt (~$8.30/bu.). Saudi Arabia has issued a tender to purchase 655,000 mts of wheat. Delivery is sche

Tidbits July CBOT Options expire today because this is the last Friday of the month with at least two business days the following week. Every corn futures contract from July 2026 through July 2027 made a new contract low yesterday and closed higher than the high for the previous day. That is what technicians call a “key reversal,” a fairly reliable indication of a price trend change. In recent weeks, corn futures contracts made two “hook reversals,” which is a new low followe

Tidbits The CBOT futures markets are closed today for Juneteenth Day. They will reopen Sunday evening at usual times. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sales of: 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 120,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown 285,775 mt of new crop corn to Mexico Algeria bought between 800-850,000 mts of milling wheat yesterday at $265/mt CFR (Cost and Freight) for August shipment. The grain is likely sourced from the Black Sea and E

June S&D Yesterday’s USDA June S&D was about as expected except for the increase of South American corn crops. USDA increased old crop corn imports by 3 million bushels which carried through to the carryover. Old crop soybean exports were reduced by 20 million bushels, but the old crop soybean crush was increased the same 20 million bushels, which left the carryover unchanged at 340 million bushels, a 29 day supply. There was no change in the 2026 corn or bean production numb

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 115,000 mts of new crop corn to Colombia. Biofuel: The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) filed a lawsuit Friday in the D.C. Circuit court challenging the 2026-2027 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes finalized by the EPA in March. The AFPM claims EPA’s “Set 2 rule” is the largest and most expensive RFS iteration in history and is the single most expensive regulation of President Trump’s second te

Tidbits As we recently stated, corn and bean futures decline after the market gets comfortable that those crops will get planted. It is highly probable corn, beans, and wheat will see a gain 50% to 62% of what they have lost since 13 May. That is the standard technical retracement and profit-taking. The longest sunlight day of the year for the Corn Belt is three weeks from Monday. Soil moisture disappears very fast with 16 to 17 hours of daylight and warm to hot day time temp

Tidbits After corn and beans were up four consecutive days ending Wednesday and wheat up three consecutive days ending on Tuesday after a very bullish wheat news from USDA, all three markets were due for a correction (profit taking) yesterday. Wheat also had more serious technical and seasonal price trend reasons to fall sharply. Wednesday evening, corn, beans and KC wheat trended slightly higher until about 1 AM but failed to come close to Wednesday highs awaiting news from

Tidbits Iran’s military said United States forces targeted an Iranian oil tanker in coastal waters and a second vessel near the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah port, while U.S. air strikes hit civilian areas in southern Iran. The U.S. military’s Central Command said its naval forces came under Iranian missile, drone and fast-boat attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump described the attacks on Iranian targets as a “love tap”, telling U.S. broadcast media that “

Tidbits November beans and December corn made their 2026 highs on Thursday 30 April. $11.78 and $4.99¾ respectively. The price of soybeans continues to rise today, exceeding $11.79. Japan’s Central Bank intervened in the foreign exchange market with buying yesterday. It was the first such intervention since July 2024. The yen buying raised its value versus the dollar by a massive 3.1%. The yen had its strongest day since 2022. Japan is the fourth largest importer of American

Tidbits The weather forecast is predicting limited rainfall through next week for Western Kansas, Eastern Colorado, and Nebraska with no rain in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The update to the Drought Monitor yesterday morning shows 70% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in drought. That is the largest since 2023 and the largest drought area for this time of the growing season since 2022. Total global grains production is expected to set a record during this marketing season,

Tidbits Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) raised its 2025/26 Argentine corn production estimate by 4 million mts to 61 million mts, well above the USDA’s April WASDE forecast of 52 million mts, however still below the Rosario Grain Exchange estimate of 67 million mts. The BAGE kept their soybean production forecast steady at 48.5 million mts while reporting harvest at 6% complete. France’s Ag Ministry estimates 2026 soft wheat planting at 4.61 million hectare

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to South Korea. Annual U.S. retail inflation was reported at 2.8% in February, the same pace as in the previous month and matching expectations. Core annual inflation excluding food and energy was 3%, down from 3.1% in the prior month. Both remain well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 on the week ending April 4th, higher than was expected, t