BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits CBOT Monday deliveries  to be assigned today: Corn   80 to 30 June 2025 bullish Meal 199 to 24 Nov 2025 negative Oil   447 to 20 Nov 2025    negative Oats 120 to 13 Nov 2025    bearish Wheat SRW    0 to 18 Mar 2025 bullish HRW   2 to 11 June 2025 bullish HRS  34 to 24 Nov 2025 friendly WTI: Managed money trades (big specs and index funds) were net short West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures in early October for the first time since 2008. Over the last 12 yea

Tidbits December CBOT options expire today. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale to China of 462,000 mts of old crop soybeans and 132,000 mts of old crop white wheat. Despite the announcement of a large sale of beans and wheat to China, corn, wheat, and beans followed the trend from higher to lower. Relax! Stocks and commodities will recover very soon. U.S. stocks  surged about 2% yesterday morning as Nvidia’s quarterly report was much better than expect

November S&D Last year, the USDA started the 2024 corn crop with a yield of 181 in May and continued that yield in June and July. In August, USDA put the yield at 183.2, then 183.6 in September, then 183.8 in October, 183.1 in November. There is no crop production report in December, so the December S&D always has the same yield as November S&D. This year may be different because of the shut down, but we doubt it.   On 10 January 2025, March corn was $4.52, 52¢ above its cont

Tidbits Shutdown: President Trump signed the funding bill to reopen the government. Federal employees should already be back at work. S&D: At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will release a World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) for the first time since 12 September. USDA will also issue all the daily exports sales in excess of 100,000 mts of grains that should have been reported but were not reported because of the shut-down. The daily sales reports may be mo

Tidbits China purchased earlier this week one Panamax load of 60,000 mts of soft white wheat and another 60,000 mts of spring wheat according to traders in the export business, as Reuters reported yesterday. Delivery will be in December. “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of an event” is a fancy way to say, “Buy the rumor and sell the fact.”  The rumor the past two weeks was China will buy U.S. wheat. That rumor had Soft Red Winter Wheat

Tidbits Pre-hedging:  When the CBOT closes this afternoon at 1:15 PM Central Time, the combines will continue to harvest corn and beans through the weekend. Some of those bushels are going to be hauled to merchandisers and sold. Therefore, in the last 30 minutes of trading today before the CBOT closes this afternoon, merchandisers are going to sell futures contracts to hedge their estimate of how many bushels they will buy this weekend. This is called pre-hedging . Last Frida

Tidbits Basis bids: With all the recent talk about shallow water on the Lower Mississippi reducing barge capacity and increasing the cost of freight, we were surprised to learn that the soybean basis on the Lower River actually firmed 6 to 7¢ last week. Even more surprising is the soybean basis on the Upper Mississippi firmed 11 to 22¢ yesterday! What do they know that we do not know? Our guess is they know China will be buying U.S. soybeans. Rapid harvest progress, no China

Tidbits October CBOT agriculture options expire today. The September quarterly grain stocks report will be released next Tuesday, September 30. U.S. Defense  Secretary Pete Hegseth has summoned senior U.S. military officers from around the world to a meeting in Quantico, Virginia on Tuesday. It is not known why Hegseth has ordered top military brass to meet on such short notice, but the news rallied crude oil futures from 65¢ lower to 36¢ higher before settling down 1¢ yester

Tidbits Soybeans: The U.S. may not be selling soybeans to the world’s largest soybean importer (China), but it looks like the U.S. will be selling beans to the world’s largest soybean producer (Brazil), which sells most of its beans to China. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, Brazil soybean crushing plants near Brazil’s ports are running the numbers on importing U.S. soybeans instead of trying to get beans from the West Central area of Brazil, which is 600 to 1,000 miles away from t

Tidbits The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 11 AM Central Time today. As expected, CBOT ag markets were higher yesterday as they recovered from oversold conditions the previous two days. The market will trade the production numbers in the few first minutes or so after the report is released, then the market will trade the U.S. carryover numbers for 3 to 20 minutes, and then the market will trade the world carryovers in

Tidbits December corn  made a new high for “the move” (the uptrend since the contract low on 12 August) by a half cent yesterday at $4.24¾ and then settled at $4.18, down 1¾¢ for the day.         Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced two sales of 2025 crop soybeans to unknown; one of 123,000 mts and the second was 204,620 mts.   U.S. Exports:  The U.S. Census Bureau has the final word on all numbers including grain exports. It released its July export data.   The

Tidbits Monday is 1 September, Labor Day. After trade is complete today, no ag commodities will trade until Monday evening. Crude oil will trade normal hours Sunday evening through Monday with a trade date listed as 2 September. Therefore, Monday and Tuesday crude oil trading will both be recorded as one trading day, Tuesday 2 September. The U.S. GDP grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in Q2, up from the 3% estimate, helped by stronger consumer spending and a notable upgrade in bu

Tidbits September CBOT options  expire today. All September basis contracts and long September futures positions need to be liquidated or rolled forward by the close of business on 28 August, next Thursday. Your merchandiser’s “house rules” may require action before the 28th.   Soybeans to China: Fox News reported late yesterday U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent told President Caleb Ragland of the American Soybean Association and the Governor of Ohio:  “We are in the process of

Tidbits Inflation: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the July producer price index (PPI) increased 0.9% from June, the largest one month advance since pandemic consumer inflation peaked in June 2022. The market was expecting a 0.2% increase. Many economists and politicians say the increased pace of inflation at the wholesale level of the economy reflects the cost of Trump's tariffs. In any case, wholesale inflation will soon find its way into the retail market as w

Tidbits Corn: The corn market got two news items yesterday morning to encourage some serious buying of corn futures. USDA weekly export sales report yesterday morning showed corn sales were fifth highest weekly sales of all time. Three of the four higher weekly corn sales included large quantities sold to China in the fall of 2021. Soybean and wheat export sales were also above the top of the range of pre-report estimates.  That takes the total new crop sales to 11.777 millio

Tidbits The whole world is waiting for news about the tariffs that President Donald Trump is expected to announce today. President Trump granted Mexico a 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs to negotiate a broader trade deal, after a call with Mexican President Sheinbaum, avoiding a 30% duty on most Mexican non-automotive and non-metal goods under USMCA. Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of: 100,000 mts of new crop corn to Colombia 140,000 mts of new crop corn to S

Tidbits EPA Director Lee Zeldin announced yesterday that gasoline cans  have been deregulated, issuing letters to manufacturers encouraging them to add vents to gas cans to ensure safe and effective refueling. Old fashioned cans with a vent and a simple threaded lid must now be legal! In 2007, EPA finalized a rule requiring manufacturers to reduce evaporative emissions by sealing in gasoline vapors, which allowed vents as long as they close automatically when not in use. Due

Tidbits Yesterday turned out to be a profit-taking day for recent corn buyers. The lowest weekly export old crop corn sales of the marketing year did not help, which is to be expected this time of year. The marketing year ends in 6 weeks and it takes 30+ days to get shipping lined-up. Farmer corn sales continue to be light. Yesterday, the Dyersville, Iowa ethanol plant firmed their basis 3¢ to 3 over September. Cargill’s Dayton, Ohio corn syrup plant has kept their basis 55 o

Tidbits At 11 AM Central today, the USDA will issue its monthly S&D. Yesterday, we sent the July S&D estimates , but for the 2024 S&D, not for 2025! We humbly apologize. Here are the estimates for today’s report from USDA (note the U.S. carryout projection for old and new crop corn are both slightly less than the June carryout numbers): CONAB increased its corn production forecast for Brazil by 3.72 million mts to a record 131.97 million mts (USDA 130), with the safrinha crop

Tidbits The House of Representatives passed the senate version of the Budget Bill  by a vote of 218 to 214. The National Corn Growers Association President Kenneth Hartman, Jr. issued the following statement in response: “The Budget Bill Act contains several important and longstanding priorities for corn growers, including the extension of key tax provisions and investments in commodity and trade promotion programs. Corn growers have been pushing for many of these improvement