BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 150,320 mts of old crop corn to unknown 136,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China Soybeans: All eyes yesterday were on January soybeans as its price traded into the 27 October gap on the daily chart by 3¼¢, reducing the gap to 4¢. January beans settled 1½¢ above the top of the gap (which is friendly), but down 5¢ on the day. Yesterday’s NOPA crush was lower than expected at 216.041 million bushels but was

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 264,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 226,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown 186,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown Crude oil: OPEC’s latest monthly report maintained a firm demand outlook due to consistent demand in China and India while reiterating that non-OPEC supply growth is set to moderate in 2026. The group also noted that OPEC+ supply management continues to anchor market stability. In its

Tidbits U.S. crude oil stocks including the SPR rose by 800,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 28, following a 3.3 million-barrel build the prior week. It was up 0.1% from the prior week and 2.9% year over year, and remained about 3% below the five-year seasonal average. Imports from Mexico dropped by 431,000 bpd to a weekly record low of 131,000 bpd in the week. Venezuela’s oil exports averaged about 921,000 bpd in November, the year’s third-highest monthly level. Overall ex

Tidbits Ukraine’s  President Zelensky's powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, who has headed Ukraine's peace negotiation team, quit yesterday, hours after anti-corruption agents raided and searched his home. A wide-spread probe into high-level corruption has sparked public outrage and thrust its leadership into crisis as Trump increases the pressure on Zelensky to reach a settlement.   Crude oil: Two Russian shadow fleet tankers were struck, and likely destroyed, north of t

Tidbits Early last week President Trump authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela. On Friday, a large crude refinery and chemical facility in Venezuela had a serious explosion, the cause of which is reportedly unknown. On Monday, the U.S. will designate Venezuela’s drug Cartel de Soles as a foreign terrorist organization for its alleged role in importing illegal drugs into the U.S. That designation legally allows a U.S. military strike on any target within the country tha

Tidbits During the 43 days the U.S. government was shut down, December spring wheat gained 6¢, Hard Red Winter December wheat gained 42¢, Soft Red Winter December wheat gained 47¢, December corn gained 28¢ and January beans gained $1.30, new highs not only for the year, but higher than any time since June 2024.   There has been a lot of talk over the years that farm commodities are the only products in the U.S. that everyone is told what production was in the past and expecte

Tidbits Soybean Outlook We were concerned before Friday’s USDA numbers were released that the soybean rally would soon end because soybean exports are not meeting expectations.   China had never confirmed the purchase of any U.S. soybeans the Trump administration reported.  On Friday, USDA confirmed the sale of 332,000 mts of soybeans sold during the shutdown to China, which is about 100,000 mts less than what the rumor mill and the Trump administration had reported. It is po

Tidbits Soybean export:  CHS reports that China bought at least four cargoes of soybeans on Friday. Shipments are scheduled for December and January and will originate from both the PNW and the Gulf.   A trader with “inside” connections says the USDA has 20 million mts of soybean exports to China plugged into the S&D for this marketing year. If so, the China deal will not result in an increase in exports on the next USDA S&D.   OPEC  will meet tomorrow to discuss December pro

Tidbits Tariffs & Trade:  President Trump announced yesterday that he will increase tariffs on Canada by 10% after he accused the provincial government of Ontario of producing an ad campaign that misrepresented former President Reagan’s speech on tariffs.   The ad campaign, which aired during the World Series games in Toronto Friday evening, Trump said was aimed to influence the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court hearing on his administration’s tariffs. Ontario Premier Doug Ford agr

Tidbits Venezuela : The Pentagon announced yesterday the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford with its Strike Group has been ordered to Latin America to target drug trafficking organizations, marking a significant increase of the U.S. military buildup in the Latin American region.     U.S. Economy:  Markets have priced-in nearly a 99% probability the Federal Reserve will reduce the Fed Fund interest rate 25 basis points (a quarter of a percent) next week, with similar odds for

Tidbits Yesterday, November bean futures were up 4¢, January beans were up 1½, March beans were down ¼, and May beans were down ¾¢. Corn and wheat had similar action, but not as pronounced. Meaning the spread is going up and that is bullish market action. With November soybean deliveries beginning 8 days, it looks like the big grain companies want soybean deliveries. The FSA  reportedly will reopen offices today to process ARC/PLC payments, farm loans, and disaster programs.

Tidbits Pre-hedge: Thirty minutes before the CBOT closed yesterday afternoon, December corn was up 2¼¢ and settled up 1¼¢. Not much pre-hedging pressure. Was it because of the weekend rain in the forecast? No late pressure in soybeans futures at all, which would be as expected; essentially bean harvest is over.     Rumor is China will soon auction 3.5 million mts of government owned soybean beans. Historically, China offers government stocks at auction when domestic prices ar

Tidbits Politics and economics:  Thursday evening, the U.S. Senate passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026. It authorizes $913.9 billion in defense spending. The NDAA sets policy and funding priorities for the Department of Defense (or War), including modernization of military capabilities, support for service members, and enhancements to national security technologies. It now heads to the conference committee for reconciliatio

Tidbits Pre-hedging:  When the CBOT closes this afternoon at 1:15 PM Central Time, the combines will continue to harvest corn and beans through the weekend. Some of those bushels are going to be hauled to merchandisers and sold. Therefore, in the last 30 minutes of trading today before the CBOT closes this afternoon, merchandisers are going to sell futures contracts to hedge their estimate of how many bushels they will buy this weekend. This is called pre-hedging . Last Frida

Tidbits Harvest report:  From Central Ohio, double crop soybeans made 56 bushels after 12 tons of chopped triticale. Unlike most of the Eastern Corn Belt, this field had a 3 inch rain on the first day of August and another 1.5 inches through the first week of September.     Crude oil:  The OPEC+ members met yesterday to decide if they should increase daily production in November by 137,000 or 548,000 barrels per day or some amount in between. Saudi Arabia wanted a big increas

Tidbits Basis Bids:  On Thursday, St. Louis basis changes were: Soybean -12X (12¢ under November futures), was 10¢, the strongest level since August 13th. Corn 8¢ firmer to 4 over the December futures price. Soft Red Winter wheat was up 16¢ at -17Z (17¢ under December futures price). The Lower Mississippi is expected to drop below 8 feet by next Friday.   President Trump and Chinese President Xi  are scheduled to meet on 31 October.   Crude oil:  With crude oil refinery runs

Tidbits Yield report  from a NE Kansas County adjacent to Nebraska: "Yields are variable depending on farming practices. APH at 150, our yields are 200, last year 211, but if you skipped on fungicide or fertilizer, around 175."   Thanks, Ron      Crude oil:  The purpose of the meeting on Tuesday of the military top brass called by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been described as a forum for Hegseth to explain the credo of "warrior ethos" (a warrior mentality) which includ

Tidbits Conservation Reserve Program:  On Wednesday, the USDA announced acceptance of 1.78 million acres into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). About 25.8 million acres are currently enrolled in CRP, which is in its 40th year. FSA received offers on more than 2.6 million acres. The program’s total acreage is capped at 27 million acres for fiscal year 2025. About 955,795 acres are expiring on September 30 this year. Producers submitted re-enrollment offers for just over

Tidbits

Tidbits The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 11 AM Central Time today. As expected, CBOT ag markets were higher yesterday as they recovered from oversold conditions the previous two days. The market will trade the production numbers in the few first minutes or so after the report is released, then the market will trade the U.S. carryover numbers for 3 to 20 minutes, and then the market will trade the world carryovers in