BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits June S&D: At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its June S&D. It most likely will have very little impact on the markets. It is too early for USDA to change yields or acres for corn and beans. Wheat production could be interesting, but wheat harvest is just getting a good start. The demand side could see an increase in corn exports, a decrease in soybean exports with an increase in soybean crush. Will USDA reduce or increase the size of Brazil’s safrinha co

Tidbits Market Comment: It is normal for the price of corn to decline when the market comes to the conclusion that the crop is going to get planted and off to a good start. Monday’s Crop Progress Report assured the market the corn crop is, in fact, off to a good start and remaining acres will easily be planted before the insurance date. Better yet, widespread rain in most of the Corn Belt on the newly planted corn was predicted and falling the past three days in many Corn Bel

Tidbits Nebraska is the third largest corn producing state in the U.S. It produces just under 2 billion bushels of corn annually. Nebraska is now 94% under some level of drought with about 10% in exceptional drought. Brady Olson farms and ranches in northeast Montana. He said Friday: "I think we have a massive disaster/wreck in northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota. Soil is drifted like snowbanks. Fertilizer that should be 3+ inches in the ground is on top. So dry an

Tidbits Brazil: Weekend comments from AgrInvest Commodities: Weather models have reduced expectations for widespread rainfall in Goiás and Minas Gerais, while concerns are growing about possible frosts in southern Brazil over the weekend, especially in areas growing second-crop corn in Paraná. In the physical market, Goiás is expected to register lower production, while domestic consumption continues to advance with the expansion of corn ethanol, reducing Brazil's export pote

Tidbits If you have any May positions, your cash grain and futures brokers want you to liquidate or roll all May positions before the close today. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will announce this afternoon their decision on interest rates. The market expects no changes by either central bank. Crude oil: After nearly 60 years of membership, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced yesterday it is leaving OPEC. Angola left OPEC in 2024, Ecuador left in 2020, and Qa

Tidbits Iran War: President Trump said Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely. Bloomberg reported Iran will not receive any frozen funds from the U.S. Details include: Trump says that a deal to end the war between the US/Israel and Iran is now "mostly complete" Talks over a lasting agreement will "probably" be held this weekend and "most main points are finalized" Trump denied that the moratorium on Iran’s nuclear program would expire after 20 years Fe

Tidbits The U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement. Each side blamed the other for the failure of the 21-hour negotiations to make a deal. Iran will not agree to give up its pursuit of developing nuclear weapons. The U.S. and most of its allies require Iran to give up that pursuit. After all, Iran has openly stated for 47 years it wants to “Blow Israel off the map” and “Death to America.” The military operation versus Iran will not end unless Iran has a regime change

Tidbits Saturday's negotiations between the United States and Iran concluded according to Iran's government early this morning (Sunday), after a series of talks in Pakistan to end the six-week war between Washington and Tehran. The talks in Islamabad were the first ‌direct U.S.-Iranian meeting in more than a decade and the highest-level discussions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. In a post on X, Iran's government said that after 14 hours, technical experts from both si

Tidbits Iran: U.S. officials confirmed Friday morning that an American aircraft, probably an F-15E Strike Eagle, was shot down by Iranian forces. One of the two crewmen was recovered and the search continues for the second crew member. A second aircraft, an A-10 Warthog, was shot yesterday over the Persian Gulf, but the pilot was able to reach Kuwait to bail out and was recovered. A major highway bridge in Tehran was destroyed by U.S. military aircraft on Friday. Late y

Tidbits Iran & Crude oil: Saturday evening, President Trump posted on Truth Social stating: “If Iran doesn’t fully open, without threat, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one!” Iran responded yesterday it will move to shut down the entire Strait of Hormuz if President Donald Trump follows through with his threats and that any companie

Tidbits Crude oil: Late Friday, President Trump issued a 30-day sanctions waiver for the purchase of Iranian oil already at sea, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. The waiver applies to oil loaded on any vessel, including sanctioned tankers, on or before 20 March and unloaded by 19 April, according to the Office of Foreign Assets Control. It is the third time the U.S. has temporarily waived sanctions on oil since the start of the war. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wrig

Tidbits Iran has adopted a strategy to undermine the global economic system to force the U.S. and Israel to stop their attacks. Iran has repeatedly attacked refineries and oil fields across the Middle East and has succeeded to seal the Strait of Hormuz to keep crude oil, natural gas, and fertilizer from flowing into the world marketplace. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more likely the lack of fertilizer will produce food shortages around the world. Iran

Tidbits The Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged yesterday afternoon, as was expected. Flash sale: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of new crop soybean meal to unknown. Oil exports through Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port on ‌the Red Sea are projected to reach a high of 3.8 million barrels per day this month. Average loadings from that port rose to 2.6 million bpd so far in March, up from 1.4 ​million bpd in February and 1.3 million bpd in January.

Tidbits Brazil’s ethanol production is forecast to rise by some 4 billion liters (+11%) in the 2026/27 season from a year earlier, which would set a record level, a statement signed by a number of local industry lobbies said on Monday. Brazil is expected to produce 36.66 billion liters of ethanol in the 2025/26 season, according to the country’s national crop agency Conab. Global edible oil markets are behaving unpredictably as energy supply disruptions from the Middle East w

Tidbits Russia was selling oil at just $50 a barrel to India and China. Now that India has a waiver to buy Russian gas and oil, Russia is telling India it will not give any more discounts. Russia is charging India $90 a barrel according to energy expert Amos Hochstein. Many producers of crude oil like to lock in a profitable price for future production when possible. Most producers know within a few bucks what their cost of production will be for the year ahead because most

Tidbits The USDA will issue its March S&D at 11 AM Central time today. There were new contract highs in the soy complex and also in a few deferred corn futures months amid crude oil spikes. AgRural reports Brazil’s first corn harvest hit 42%, lagging the 54% seen a year earlier. Planting of Brazil's second corn crop reached 82%, compared with 92% a year earlier. While corn plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 94%, just shy of the 96% pace from a year ago. Brazilian farmers h

Tidbits Mike Alfred is a private investor, advisor, and corporate board member of several companies. He is the Founder and Managing Partner of Alpine Fox LP, a private investment partnership focused on value equities and Bitcoin. He has 338,600 followers on X, where he posted mid-day yesterday (Sunday): "I just sailed through the Strait of Hormuz. Light wind, good visibility, saw a few other yachts. No sign of conflict. The trading lane is open for business. Oil should soft

Tidbits The price of crude oil rose by more than $10 in a single day, closing at $91.27. The U.S. will allow Russian crude oil that has been stranded at sea to be sold to India to ease the potential supply shock to the global market. It is estimated there is 150 million barrels of Russian oil in those ships. Treasury Secretary ​Scott Bessent yesterday ‌said the United States could remove sanctions from more ​Russian oil, a ​day after Washington issued a ⁠30-day waiver all

Tidbits Crude Oil & Fuel: Bloomberg reports that China has told their oil refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports. Japanese oil refiners are asking the government to release supplies from the strategic petroleum reserves and have also bought around 7 million barrels of U.S. crude oil for June arrival. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright said the Navy will escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz “when the time is right,” but their current focus is disarming Iran. He said

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 125,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Fed Reserve: Yesterday, President Trump submitted his nomination of the former Fed governor, Kevin Warsh, to the Senate as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve to replace Jerome Powell in May. Cattle & Hogs: The American Rancher Alliance reported yesterday that three-day-old bull calves are now selling for $2,200. That is quite a testament to the confidence some p