Tidbits, Iran & Crude Oil, Q&A: Option Quotes and Puts for the Cattle Market 3/1/26
- Wright team
- 1 hour ago
- 6 min read
Tidbits
How will the markets react to the attack on Iran? Logically, one would expect crude oil to trade higher. There will be fools buying crude oil futures on the opening this evening. They don't realize traders have already Bought the Rumor (U.S. will attack Iran) and those same traders Will Sell the Fact (U.S. did attack Iran). The only reason crude oil would maintain its $12 gain since mid-December is if the insurance companies refuse to insure ships sailing to and from the Persian Gulf carrying crude oil to the rest of the world. That could last a couple weeks, but we doubt it.
There are people who think China will punish the U.S. for its attack on Iran; after all, China and Iran have been “buddies” for decades. But Iran has become a buddy that China’s “friendship” is based upon buying Iranian crude dirt cheap on the black market. If Iran becomes a member of the world community, it will be allowed to sell crude oil openly to the highest bidder and sell all the oil their OPEC partners will allow. Sanctions will be lifted and open trade with China will be legal again.
Venezuela, despite a dilapidated infrastructure, exported about 100,000 barrels a day more crude oil in February than it was exporting before Madura was kidnapped. China will not admit it, but it will be glad to see a regime change in Iran.
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