BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Israel plans to make further trade concessions to the U.S. on food and agricultural goods. The Israeli government intends to scrap a tax-free quota and raise levies to 50% on wheat-feed imported from countries other than the U.S. starting in April, as Bloomberg reports. Officials hope that boosting the competitiveness of U.S. wheat against Israel’s traditional suppliers — the largest of them being Russia — will help clinch a deal to ease tariffs on goods shipped to th

Tidbits First notice day  for March futures is this coming Friday. Panama has reassigned control of two key ports from Chinese operator CK Hutchinson to two European operators after nearly three decades in Chinese hands. CK Hutchison said Panama's decision to cancel key port contracts and grant temporary licences to Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping was “unlawful” as it considers national and international legal action against Panama and third parties. U.S. President Donald T

Tidbits The USDA 2026 Agriculture Outlook Conference is scheduled for February 19–20. The USDA Chief Economist will present the department’s initial 2026 outlook for the agricultural economy, commodity markets, trade, and farm income. Reuters News conducted a survey of analysts for this morning’s USDA Outlook Forum S&D projections: Biofuel: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House this week for

Tidbits Canada's wheat exports  for this marketing year to date reached a record 11.25 million mts, up 1.19 million mts from last year’s record pace.   Soybeans:  Friday’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, which is issued every Friday, and we report the numbers on Sundays as part of our Weekly Basis, showed the big spec funds were net buyers of 94,316 of soybean contracts for the week ending last Tuesday.   Peak Trading Research

Tidbits Yesterday’s February S&D  increased 2025/26 U.S. corn exports, which reduced the marketing year carryover by ~5% or 3 days’ use. World corn carryover was lowered by 1 days’ use as well, it is the smallest in 9 years. World soybean and domestic wheat carryover rose about 1%. The USDA  is the world's gold standard for crop estimates, but it faces mounting doubts about the reliability of its data from farmers, grain traders and economists following deep staff losses and

Tidbits The USDA  will issue its February S&D today at 11 AM central time. We do not expect any surprises, but nothing in this business is 100%. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 264,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. Farmers in Brazil  have harvested 16.55% of the area planted with soy for the 2025/26 season, above the 9.84% harvested this time last year, consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday. Brazil 2025/26 soy harvest sales at

February S&D Estimates The USDA will release the S&D report on February 10 at 11 AM Central Time. Market estimates U.S. soybean and wheat carryover to decrease about 1%, corn carryover is anticipated to stay unchanged. Note: "Ending Stocks" aka "Carryover." World carryover is seen a bit higher for corn and beans. Brazilian crops estimates may increase while decreasing for Argentina. Estimates compiled by DTN: Q&A: Put Options and Risk Management From a client in Iowa: "Thanks

Tidbits Mexico  has become the largest buyer of U.S. corn. Trump is increasing pressure on Cuba to cause the communist regime to collapse. Now that Venezuela is not shipping crude to Cuba, Mexico is the largest supplier of crude oil and refined products to Cuba. Mexican President Sheinbaum has said Mexico will continue crude oil shipments to Cuba, saying they are based on long term contracts and considered international aid. However, senior Mexican government sources said the

Tidbits The EU  is very upset that Trump has put a tariff on all their products shipped to the U.S. until the U.S. gains control of Greenland. The EU is our largest importer of soybean meal. Last year, the EU imported 20.6 million mts of U.S. soybean meal.   The U.S. economy  has two major problems:   Unprofitable grain production for most of the last three years with 2026 looking just as bad or worse.  Datacenters under construction or planned for construction will not have

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Tidbits Ukraine:  U.S. Sec. of State Rubio led U.S. negotiations with Ukrainian officials in Florida yesterday. Both sides said the talks were productive about a peace deal with Russia with Rubio expressing optimism about the progress. Rubio said the aim is to create a pathway that leaves Ukraine sovereign and independent.   Venezuela:  Yesterday, Venezuela's President Maduro was requesting a conversation with President Trump according to multiple news sources. Sunday evening

Tidbits President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela  should be considered "closed in its entirety." He gave no further details as the U.S. ramps up pressure on President Nicolas Maduro's government.   Ukrainian  President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said yesterday that a delegation headed by security council secretary Rustem Umerov was on its way to the U.S. to continue talks on an agreement to end the war with Russia. Umerov has been put

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 330,000 mts of old crop beans to China. The U.S. administration will soon announce details of payments to farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade disputes, Secretary Rollins said yesterday. She also said that the USDA will be making an announcement about "structural changes" to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also known as food stamps, the week after Thanksgiving. She has said all SNAP recip

Tidbits President Donald Trump is committed to providing Americans a $2,000 check using money that has come into government coffers from Trump's tariffs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Trump's staff is exploring how to go about making the plan a reality. The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote today to end the government shutdown. OPEC  revised its crude oil demand projections for 2026 from higher to about unchanged to show a “b

Tidbits November USDA S&D  report will be released this Friday. A Reuters' survey shows traders expect lower U.S. corn and soybean production. The average corn production is estimated at 16.557 billion bushels, down 257 million from September. The average yield is expected to slip from 186.7 to 184 bpa, while still a record. Despite the lower production, U.S. ending stocks are expected to rise slightly to 2.136 billion bushels due to higher carry-in stocks from last year’s cr

Tidbits Inflation: Two weeks ago, the U.S. inflation rate for the past 12 months was reported to be 3%, way above the Federal Reserve’s stated goal of 2%. Three days later, the Fed reduced the Fed Fund Rate. Chairman Jerome Powell said, “Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal."   In August 1971, the U.S. annual inflation rate reached an "intolerable" 3% and all financial “experts” pr

Tidbits China bought 20 shiploads of Brazil’s soybeans over the weekend.   Bloomberg reported that China is seeking U.S. wheat offers for December through February shipment. That supported corn yesterday. The U.S. will suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels starting November 10 as part of deescalating maritime tensions, Bloomberg reports. The White House says the pause of measures aimed at countering China’s shipping dominance will last one year while the U.S. n

Tidbits Tariffs: The Trump administration began easing tariff policies, making exceptions for goods that cannot be produced, mined, or grown in the USA. The list of exemptions includes gold, LEDs, chemicals, metals, and even aircraft parts. The tariff relief is related to an upcoming Supreme Court case that may declare some duties illegal. Now the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative will be able to independently approve tariff relief, which will speed up

Tidbits Pre-hedge: Thirty minutes before the CBOT closed yesterday afternoon, December corn was up 2¼¢ and settled up 1¼¢. Not much pre-hedging pressure. Was it because of the weekend rain in the forecast? No late pressure in soybeans futures at all, which would be as expected; essentially bean harvest is over.     Rumor is China will soon auction 3.5 million mts of government owned soybean beans. Historically, China offers government stocks at auction when domestic prices ar

Tidbits China: About noon Central Time yesterday it was reported: “U.S. Trade Representative Greer says the Trump Administration thinks they will be able to "work through it" with China.” A meeting between President Trump and President Xi has officially been rescheduled. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday Washington was considering terminating some trade ties with China, including in relation to cooking oil. "I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans,