Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Iran & Crude: The U.S. has renewed some sanctions and military strikes on Iran after three crude oil tankers were being struck by unknown projectiles in and near the Strait of Hormuz. August crude oil finished yesterday $1.89 higher and was another $2.05 higher after two hours of trading last evening. S&D: The USDA will issue its July S&D this Friday at 10 AM Mountain Time. Planted acres will be changed to the numbers on the 30 June USDA acreage report. Demand numbers

Tidbits Iran: Fox News reported the U.S. military launched a new round of airstrikes against Iranian targets Saturday afternoon after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC) attacked a second commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a senior U.S. official. The strikes are targeting Iranian air defenses, drone storage facilities, cruise missiles, targeting radars, minelaying capabilities and surface-to-air missile systems. Despite this, media reports sugges

Tidbits The Corn Belt weather a week from now is going to be hot and wet. Iran: President Trump threatened to restart war with Iran on Sunday even as Vice President JD Vance met Iranian officials for the first talks under an interim peace deal that was overshadowed by Tehran's announcement it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz. Q&A: Inflation Hyperinflation: Gilbert asked when will we see hyperinflation? Economists follow Philip Cagan's classic definition of hyperinfla

Tidbits The Heart of the Midwest is having some rough weather this morning. Be careful and be safe! Weekly Basis: Because Friday was a Federal holiday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) did not issue its weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The COT will be issued on Monday afternoon. Therefore, our Weekly Basis report will be issued Tuesday morning. December corn made its high for the year on this date in 2023 at $6.29¾. The U.S. new crop corn carryo

Tidbits Baker Hughes reported there were 563 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA. That is 1 more than last week and 9 more than a year ago. Canada had 186 rigs drilling this past week, 6 more than the previous week and 47 more than a year ago! CGB at Gladstone Bluff, Illinois (on The River) Friday evening compared to last week: Corn spot delivery: -16N (16 under July), 2¢ weaker = $4.02 Fall delivery: -32Z (32 under December), steady = $4.12 Soybean

Tidbits Brazil: Weekend comments from AgrInvest Commodities: Weather models have reduced expectations for widespread rainfall in Goiás and Minas Gerais, while concerns are growing about possible frosts in southern Brazil over the weekend, especially in areas growing second-crop corn in Paraná. In the physical market, Goiás is expected to register lower production, while domestic consumption continues to advance with the expansion of corn ethanol, reducing Brazil's export pote

Tidbits The Federal Reserve voted 8 to 4 to hold the target interest rate at 3.5-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, as expected. Energy markets are sharply higher today amid stalled Iranian peace talks and renewed threats of further military action. Crude oil has risen significantly, and soybean oil follows. U.S. crude inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels the past week, while the market expected it to be almost steady. Crude oil production rose a bit, while imports d

Tidbits Iran War: President Trump said Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely. Bloomberg reported Iran will not receive any frozen funds from the U.S. Details include: Trump says that a deal to end the war between the US/Israel and Iran is now "mostly complete" Talks over a lasting agreement will "probably" be held this weekend and "most main points are finalized" Trump denied that the moratorium on Iran’s nuclear program would expire after 20 years Fe

Corn Market Summary Corn, wheat, and soybean futures usually trade to their highest price of the year between late April and late June. Every Wednesday we send you an email entitled Weekly Summary & Recommendations (link in the section below) in which we discuss the technical outlook, fundamental outlook, seasonal price trend, and profitability of the current price. Given the new information from the USDA with 2026 acres, the quarterly stocks information and the latest weat

Tidbits U.S. Acres: S&P Global Energy raised its corn plantings forecast to 95.2 million acres from its January projection of 95 million acres. USDA’s 2025 planted acres were 98.8 million. S&P projected U.S. 2026 soybean plantings at 85 million acres, up from its January forecast of 84.5 million and up from the 81.2 million acres seeded in 2025. The firm also projected total U.S. wheat plantings for 2026 at 44.050 million acres, 40,000 acres above its January projection but d

Tidbits Brazil’s ethanol production is forecast to rise by some 4 billion liters (+11%) in the 2026/27 season from a year earlier, which would set a record level, a statement signed by a number of local industry lobbies said on Monday. Brazil is expected to produce 36.66 billion liters of ethanol in the 2025/26 season, according to the country’s national crop agency Conab. Global edible oil markets are behaving unpredictably as energy supply disruptions from the Middle East w

Tidbits Crude Oil: Two tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were attacked within the territorial waters of Iraq last evening, causing both to catch fire in the Persian Gulf. A total of 25 crew members onboard the vessels have been evacuated so far by authorities in Iraq. Despite Donald Trump's statements, the U.S. refuses to escort civilian ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the high risk of attacks, Reuters reports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) approved yesterday

Tidbits S&D: As expected, the USDA did not make any significant changes to the U.S. balance sheets, as ending stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat remained unchanged. Corn global inventories rose nearly 3 million mts; production rose 1.7 million mts in Ukraine and 1 million mts in Brazil, while down 1 million mts in Argentina. The average U.S. Farm price for 2025/26 at $4.10 and for 2026/27 it was pegged at $4.20 in February.

Tidbits The USDA will issue its March S&D at 11 AM Central time today. There were new contract highs in the soy complex and also in a few deferred corn futures months amid crude oil spikes. AgRural reports Brazil’s first corn harvest hit 42%, lagging the 54% seen a year earlier. Planting of Brazil's second corn crop reached 82%, compared with 92% a year earlier. While corn plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 94%, just shy of the 96% pace from a year ago. Brazilian farmers h

Tidbits Iran’s president issued an apology to neighboring countries to calm regional anger at Iran’s strikes on Gulf civilian targets and urged them not to join the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. Fertilizer: From Agrinvest and Dellagro Team: "The global fertilizer market went on alert following escalating tensions in the Middle East, which increased logistical uncertainties in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

Tidbits Crude Oil & Fuel: Bloomberg reports that China has told their oil refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports. Japanese oil refiners are asking the government to release supplies from the strategic petroleum reserves and have also bought around 7 million barrels of U.S. crude oil for June arrival. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright said the Navy will escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz “when the time is right,” but their current focus is disarming Iran. He said

Tidbits How will the markets react to the attack on Iran? Logically, one would expect crude oil to trade higher. There will be fools buying crude oil futures on the opening this evening. They don't realize traders have already Bought the Rumor (U.S. will attack Iran) and those same traders Will Sell the Fact (U.S. did attack Iran). The only reason crude oil would maintain its $12 gain since mid-December is if the insurance companies refuse to insure ships sailing to and from

Tidbits Israel plans to make further trade concessions to the U.S. on food and agricultural goods. The Israeli government intends to scrap a tax-free quota and raise levies to 50% on wheat-feed imported from countries other than the U.S. starting in April, as Bloomberg reports. Officials hope that boosting the competitiveness of U.S. wheat against Israel’s traditional suppliers — the largest of them being Russia — will help clinch a deal to ease tariffs on goods shipped to th

Tidbits First notice day for March futures is this coming Friday. Panama has reassigned control of two key ports from Chinese operator CK Hutchinson to two European operators after nearly three decades in Chinese hands. CK Hutchison said Panama's decision to cancel key port contracts and grant temporary licences to Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping was “unlawful” as it considers national and international legal action against Panama and third parties. U.S. President Donald Tr

Tidbits The USDA 2026 Agriculture Outlook Conference is scheduled for February 19–20. The USDA Chief Economist will present the department’s initial 2026 outlook for the agricultural economy, commodity markets, trade, and farm income. Reuters News conducted a survey of analysts for this morning’s USDA Outlook Forum S&D projections: Biofuel: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House this week for