BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 330,000 mts of old crop beans to China. The U.S. administration will soon announce details of payments to farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade disputes, Secretary Rollins said yesterday. She also said that the USDA will be making an announcement about "structural changes" to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also known as food stamps, the week after Thanksgiving. She has said all SNAP recip

Tidbits President Donald Trump is committed to providing Americans a $2,000 check using money that has come into government coffers from Trump's tariffs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Trump's staff is exploring how to go about making the plan a reality. The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote today to end the government shutdown. OPEC  revised its crude oil demand projections for 2026 from higher to about unchanged to show a “b

Tidbits November USDA S&D  report will be released this Friday. A Reuters' survey shows traders expect lower U.S. corn and soybean production. The average corn production is estimated at 16.557 billion bushels, down 257 million from September. The average yield is expected to slip from 186.7 to 184 bpa, while still a record. Despite the lower production, U.S. ending stocks are expected to rise slightly to 2.136 billion bushels due to higher carry-in stocks from last year’s cr

Tidbits Inflation: Two weeks ago, the U.S. inflation rate for the past 12 months was reported to be 3%, way above the Federal Reserve’s stated goal of 2%. Three days later, the Fed reduced the Fed Fund Rate. Chairman Jerome Powell said, “Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal."   In August 1971, the U.S. annual inflation rate reached an "intolerable" 3% and all financial “experts” pr

Tidbits China bought 20 shiploads of Brazil’s soybeans over the weekend.   Bloomberg reported that China is seeking U.S. wheat offers for December through February shipment. That supported corn yesterday. The U.S. will suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels starting November 10 as part of deescalating maritime tensions, Bloomberg reports. The White House says the pause of measures aimed at countering China’s shipping dominance will last one year while the U.S. n

Tidbits Tariffs: The Trump administration began easing tariff policies, making exceptions for goods that cannot be produced, mined, or grown in the USA. The list of exemptions includes gold, LEDs, chemicals, metals, and even aircraft parts. The tariff relief is related to an upcoming Supreme Court case that may declare some duties illegal. Now the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative will be able to independently approve tariff relief, which will speed up

Tidbits Pre-hedge: Thirty minutes before the CBOT closed yesterday afternoon, December corn was up 2¼¢ and settled up 1¼¢. Not much pre-hedging pressure. Was it because of the weekend rain in the forecast? No late pressure in soybeans futures at all, which would be as expected; essentially bean harvest is over.     Rumor is China will soon auction 3.5 million mts of government owned soybean beans. Historically, China offers government stocks at auction when domestic prices ar

Tidbits China: About noon Central Time yesterday it was reported: “U.S. Trade Representative Greer says the Trump Administration thinks they will be able to "work through it" with China.” A meeting between President Trump and President Xi has officially been rescheduled. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday Washington was considering terminating some trade ties with China, including in relation to cooking oil. "I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans,

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale  of 125,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown and 227,160 mts of new crop corn to a “different” unknown.   The futures financials priced-in a 75% probability the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rate  25 basis points (0.25%) in September, up from 45% before yesterday’s jobs data, which showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 77,000 in July, well below market expectations of 110,000. Worse yet, 258,000 job gains were removed from

Tidbits New contract lows were set in corn yesterday. July set it at $4.08 and December hit a low at $4.21. The July soybean contract traded down 21½¢ to settle at $10.25¼ and November finished down 18½¢ to settle the day at $10.18½. Soybean meal and soybean oil were lower on the day. The seasonal trend is a tough one to fight with. The Argentine province of Buenos Aires received snow yesterday for the first time in 18 years. Brazil’s  state of Paraná reported widespread fros

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 554,400 mts  of new crop (2025 corn) and 75,600 mts of 2026 corn  to Mexico . Somebody in Mexico thinks corn is really cheap to be buying that much for future delivery. Mexico’s wheat imports for the 2025/26 season are projected to rise to 6.4 million mts due to its lowest harvest in 30 years. Current season import estimates are at 5.2 million mts. The U.S. remains the primary supplier with a share of about 73%, follow

Tidbits The U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steven Wittkoff, was scheduled to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran to discuss Iran's response to the U.S. nuclear deal proposal. The meeting was cancelled.   Iran has reached out to Oman and Qatar, requesting that they mediate with Washington to halt the ongoing Israeli strikes and restart nuclear talks, a source familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post Sunday.   Saudi Arabia is also working

Q&A: Old Crop Soybean Basis Question from a client: Thanks for all the good info in your emails.   I wanted to share some local basis info and suggest you encourage farmers not to wait too long like I did to lock in basis.   I sold soybeans on a July futures contract last winter and waited for the basis to improve at our local processor in Mankato, MN over the past several months it has been improving going from -.40 a few cents at a time time -.35, -.25, -.20 etc usually sta

Tidbits Argentina's  Rosario Grain Exchange is warning that the country stands to lose significant corn and soybean meal export share to Vietnam in the wake of a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal.   In the area of Boa Esperança Do Norte, Mato Grosso  a record yield of safrinha corn was announced: 223 bushels/acre (233.16 60Kg-bags/hectare).    AgRural raised Brazil’s  corn production to 128.5 million mts (USDA 130), supporting medium-term supply. However, AgRural warns early planting i

Tidbits Pro Farmer reports: Some yield concerns  are cropping up in Brazil , with some later-planted safrinha corn facing an increased stress in drier biased areas, most notably in center-west areas.   For anyone watching our daily rain day charts that is no surprise. The first three locations are Brazil’s safrinha corn area and the dry season clearly started the first week in May. The dry season usually means no rain. Imagine what a corn field looks like if planted in sandy

Tidbits Weather  for the next six days predict Missouri, southern areas of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana will get the most rain, as much as 3 to 4 inches (76 to 102 mm). Wind gusts over the major hard wheat production regions are expected to blow over 50 mph in the next ten days.    StoneX’s fertilizer  guy, Josh Linville: "Phosphate values are incredibly high priced with few signs it will soften. NOLA DAP is @ $680."   The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI

Tidbits The U.S. crude oil  inventory increased by 4.29 million barrels in the reporting week ending 9 May, a sharp reversal from the prior week's 4.49 million-barrel draw, according to the American Petroleum Institute. The markets expected a 2.4 million-barrel decline. None-the-less, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were up $1.72 a barrel yesterday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday morning reported the annual inflation  rate at the retail level decline

Highlights Ag Canada  reported yesterday that wheat export  traders are saying Chinese buyers have bought 400,000 to 500,000 mts of wheat from Australia and Canada in recent weeks as drought and heat has already done significant damage to the wheat crop in Henan province, which grows about a third of China’s 140 million mts wheat crop. There is a reason May is the seasonal high for wheat prices, so do not be pricing new crop wheat yet.   A crop tour projects Oklahoma’s winter

Highlights The U.S. eliminated the exemption of tariffs  on goods under $800 shipped directly to consumers. Such goods, mostly from China, face a 120% tariff or a $100 flat fee per postal item, rising to $200 on June 1. This targets e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu.   The U.S. approached China for trade talks, but China insists on canceling 145% tariffs on its goods first, calling Trump’s strategy “extortion.” China retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods.   Fentanyl

Q&A: Marketing Plans A Prospective Client asked on 22 April 2025:   "I am getting your trial emails and have a couple of questions. My marketing plan is to store as many bushels as possible on farm and market them as old crop between 5-12 and 6-22-25 selling ~17% each week for 6 weeks, maybe every Wednesday at noon? When selling old crop, do I just sell cash price for the nearby month and deliver during the six-week period described above?" We usually recommend you separate t