BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Crude Oil: Two tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were attacked within the territorial waters of Iraq last evening, causing both to catch fire in the Persian Gulf. A total of 25 crew members onboard the vessels have been evacuated so far by authorities in Iraq. Despite Donald Trump's statements, the U.S. refuses to escort civilian ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the high risk of attacks, Reuters reports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) approved yesterday

Tidbits S&D: As expected, the USDA did not make any significant changes to the U.S. balance sheets, as ending stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat remained unchanged. Corn global inventories rose nearly 3 million mts; production rose 1.7 million mts in Ukraine and 1 million mts in Brazil, while down 1 million mts in Argentina. The average U.S. Farm price for 2025/26 at $4.10 and for 2026/27 it was pegged at $4.20 in February.

Tidbits The USDA will issue its March S&D at 11 AM Central time today. There were new contract highs in the soy complex and also in a few deferred corn futures months amid crude oil spikes. AgRural reports Brazil’s first corn harvest hit 42%, lagging the 54% seen a year earlier. Planting of Brazil's second corn crop reached 82%, compared with 92% a year earlier. While corn plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 94%, just shy of the 96% pace from a year ago. Brazilian farmers h

Tidbits Iran’s president issued an apology to neighboring countries to calm regional anger at Iran’s strikes on Gulf civilian targets and urged them not to join the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.   Fertilizer:  From Agrinvest and Dellagro Team: "The global fertilizer market went on alert following escalating tensions in the Middle East, which increased logistical uncertainties in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

Tidbits Crude Oil & Fuel: Bloomberg reports that China has told their oil refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports. Japanese oil refiners are asking the government to release supplies from the strategic petroleum reserves and have also bought around 7 million barrels of U.S. crude oil for June arrival. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright said the Navy will escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz “when the time is right,” but their current focus is disarming Iran. He said

Tidbits How will the markets react to the attack on Iran?  Logically, one would expect crude oil to trade higher. There will be fools buying crude oil futures on the opening this evening. They don't realize traders have already Bought the Rumor (U.S. will  attack Iran) and those same traders Will Sell the Fact (U.S. did  attack Iran). The only reason crude oil would maintain its $12 gain since mid-December is if the insurance companies refuse to insure ships sailing to and fr

Tidbits Israel plans to make further trade concessions to the U.S. on food and agricultural goods. The Israeli government intends to scrap a tax-free quota and raise levies to 50% on wheat-feed imported from countries other than the U.S. starting in April, as Bloomberg reports. Officials hope that boosting the competitiveness of U.S. wheat against Israel’s traditional suppliers — the largest of them being Russia — will help clinch a deal to ease tariffs on goods shipped to th

Tidbits First notice day  for March futures is this coming Friday. Panama has reassigned control of two key ports from Chinese operator CK Hutchinson to two European operators after nearly three decades in Chinese hands. CK Hutchison said Panama's decision to cancel key port contracts and grant temporary licences to Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping was “unlawful” as it considers national and international legal action against Panama and third parties. U.S. President Donald T

Tidbits The USDA 2026 Agriculture Outlook Conference is scheduled for February 19–20. The USDA Chief Economist will present the department’s initial 2026 outlook for the agricultural economy, commodity markets, trade, and farm income. Reuters News conducted a survey of analysts for this morning’s USDA Outlook Forum S&D projections: Biofuel: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House this week for

Tidbits Canada's wheat exports  for this marketing year to date reached a record 11.25 million mts, up 1.19 million mts from last year’s record pace.   Soybeans:  Friday’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, which is issued every Friday, and we report the numbers on Sundays as part of our Weekly Basis, showed the big spec funds were net buyers of 94,316 of soybean contracts for the week ending last Tuesday.   Peak Trading Research

Tidbits Yesterday’s February S&D  increased 2025/26 U.S. corn exports, which reduced the marketing year carryover by ~5% or 3 days’ use. World corn carryover was lowered by 1 days’ use as well, it is the smallest in 9 years. World soybean and domestic wheat carryover rose about 1%. The USDA  is the world's gold standard for crop estimates, but it faces mounting doubts about the reliability of its data from farmers, grain traders and economists following deep staff losses and

Tidbits The USDA  will issue its February S&D today at 11 AM central time. We do not expect any surprises, but nothing in this business is 100%. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 264,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. Farmers in Brazil  have harvested 16.55% of the area planted with soy for the 2025/26 season, above the 9.84% harvested this time last year, consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday. Brazil 2025/26 soy harvest sales at

February S&D Estimates The USDA will release the S&D report on February 10 at 11 AM Central Time. Market estimates U.S. soybean and wheat carryover to decrease about 1%, corn carryover is anticipated to stay unchanged. Note: "Ending Stocks" aka "Carryover." World carryover is seen a bit higher for corn and beans. Brazilian crops estimates may increase while decreasing for Argentina. Estimates compiled by DTN: Q&A: Put Options and Risk Management From a client in Iowa: "Thanks

Tidbits Mexico  has become the largest buyer of U.S. corn. Trump is increasing pressure on Cuba to cause the communist regime to collapse. Now that Venezuela is not shipping crude to Cuba, Mexico is the largest supplier of crude oil and refined products to Cuba. Mexican President Sheinbaum has said Mexico will continue crude oil shipments to Cuba, saying they are based on long term contracts and considered international aid. However, senior Mexican government sources said the

Tidbits The EU  is very upset that Trump has put a tariff on all their products shipped to the U.S. until the U.S. gains control of Greenland. The EU is our largest importer of soybean meal. Last year, the EU imported 20.6 million mts of U.S. soybean meal.   The U.S. economy  has two major problems:   Unprofitable grain production for most of the last three years with 2026 looking just as bad or worse.  Datacenters under construction or planned for construction will not have

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Tidbits Ukraine:  U.S. Sec. of State Rubio led U.S. negotiations with Ukrainian officials in Florida yesterday. Both sides said the talks were productive about a peace deal with Russia with Rubio expressing optimism about the progress. Rubio said the aim is to create a pathway that leaves Ukraine sovereign and independent.   Venezuela:  Yesterday, Venezuela's President Maduro was requesting a conversation with President Trump according to multiple news sources. Sunday evening

Tidbits President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela  should be considered "closed in its entirety." He gave no further details as the U.S. ramps up pressure on President Nicolas Maduro's government.   Ukrainian  President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said yesterday that a delegation headed by security council secretary Rustem Umerov was on its way to the U.S. to continue talks on an agreement to end the war with Russia. Umerov has been put

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 330,000 mts of old crop beans to China. The U.S. administration will soon announce details of payments to farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade disputes, Secretary Rollins said yesterday. She also said that the USDA will be making an announcement about "structural changes" to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also known as food stamps, the week after Thanksgiving. She has said all SNAP recip

Tidbits President Donald Trump is committed to providing Americans a $2,000 check using money that has come into government coffers from Trump's tariffs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Trump's staff is exploring how to go about making the plan a reality. The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote today to end the government shutdown. OPEC  revised its crude oil demand projections for 2026 from higher to about unchanged to show a “b