BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Flash sale:  Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown.   The U.S. Supreme Court  did not issue a ruling yesterday on President Trump’s global tariffs.   The U.S. unemployment  rate edged down to 4.4% in December 2025, from a revised 4.5% in November, which had marked the highest level since October 2021. The reading also came in slightly below market expectations of 4.5%. The economy added 50,000 non-farm payrolls i

Tidbits The commander of the Iranian Army Navy, Admiral Shahram Irani, stated yesterday that the 104th Iranian flotilla is headed towards South America with the objective of escorting freighters. President Donald Trump said the United States had dealt a deadly blow to ISIS terrorists in northwestern Nigeria. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova dismissed a Bloomberg report about Russia adjusting its Ukraine peace plan as fake news saying Bloomberg has no reli

Tidbits The U.S. GDP  for the third quarter 2025 was released a month late yesterday, but it was good news as the economy expanded 4.3% from a year ago; the market expected an expansion of 3.3%. There were about a dozen other less important economic indicators for the U.S. economy that were a mixed bag of good and not so good news. A year ago, “everybody” predicted the U.S. would be in a deep recession by now because of Trump’s tariffs. Here are the Quarterly GDP numbers sinc

Tidbits Interest Rate: Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 3 to lower the benchmark Fed Funds rate by a quarter point to a new target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. One vote was to lower the policy rate by half percent, while two votes supported no change. Post meeting comments included that the Federal Reserve will buy $40 billion worth of U.S. treasury bills over the next 30 days to put more money in circulation; the Fed expects one rate cut in 2026 and

Tidbits Corn: There were multiple reports that farmer sales of corn increased yesterday. December corn has tested the 200 day moving average 2 of the last 5 days. That moving average line is at $4.36½ today. Dec corn has been below the 200 day moving average since 6 June. So it is major technical resistance! We do expect corn and beans to weaken in the coming days because Friday next week is the first S&D from USDA in two months. Shutdown: Reportedly 8 Democrat senators have

Tidbits Venezuela : The Pentagon announced yesterday the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford with its Strike Group has been ordered to Latin America to target drug trafficking organizations, marking a significant increase of the U.S. military buildup in the Latin American region.     U.S. Economy:  Markets have priced-in nearly a 99% probability the Federal Reserve will reduce the Fed Fund interest rate 25 basis points (a quarter of a percent) next week, with similar odds for

Tidbits The U.S. budget  deficit for fiscal year 2025 narrowed to $1.775 trillion, a decrease of $41 billion from the previous year, driven by record federal receipts, up 6% from 2024. The improvement was supported by record high tariffs and customs revenues. The fiscal year, ending September 30, 2025, covered nearly nine months under the new administration and marked the first annual deficit decline since 2022. After buying $20 billion worth of Argentine pesos on 9 October,

Tidbits Farm aid: The U.S. Republican farm-state lawmakers urge the Trump administration to issue autumn farm aid by year-end due to low crop prices and a trade war. Four lawmakers are in talks with USDA and other officials about an aid package, ideally by December. Senator John Hoeven cites a similar $23 billion payout during Trump’s first term to offset China trade losses and suggests adding aid to a spending bill; he says farmers need help soon, but by year-end is acceptab

Tidbits The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 11 AM Central Time today. As expected, CBOT ag markets were higher yesterday as they recovered from oversold conditions the previous two days. The market will trade the production numbers in the few first minutes or so after the report is released, then the market will trade the U.S. carryover numbers for 3 to 20 minutes, and then the market will trade the world carryovers in

Tidbits Yesterday, December corn  opened unchanged at $4.18 (open price) and then traded to $4.14¼ (day low) technical support during the day. Before the close it recovered to $4.21 (day high) and settled at $4.19¾ (close price), up 1¾¢ for the day. Such four prices form a bar or a candle for the chart. Bar/candle charts give you more sense of the trading periods compared to linear charts (where only one price describes a period). We hope you are usually using either bar or c

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale  of 125,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown and 227,160 mts of new crop corn to a “different” unknown.   The futures financials priced-in a 75% probability the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rate  25 basis points (0.25%) in September, up from 45% before yesterday’s jobs data, which showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 77,000 in July, well below market expectations of 110,000. Worse yet, 258,000 job gains were removed from

Tidbits December corn  has closed higher 5 of the last 6 days and for 6 consecutive days, the high for the day was higher than the previous day’s high. September corn has done the same 3 consecutive days. Tomorrow is Friday. If corn futures settle steady or higher today, it is reasonable to expect some end of the week profit-taking tomorrow. On the other hand, there are more reports each day this week of pollination problems, now coming from four Corn Belt states. Is the poll

Tidbits Since the CFTC did not release its Commitment of Traders Report (changes in open interest) on the 4th of July, our Weekly Basis Report  will be issued Tuesday morning after the COT is released Monday afternoon after the market closes.      The weather forecast and trade negotiations can change dramatically in less than an hour, but it appears the CBOT  will have a good mix of bullish and bearish news when it opens this evening. Soybeans would appear to be the upside l

Tidbits It has been a very dry year for Nebraska , but South Central Nebraska sure did not need all 7 inches of rain (18cm) it received yesterday according to 247AG. Note the rainfall map:  CHS reported yesterday morning U.S. Secretary of Commerce Lutnick said the U.S. and China  signed an agreement on Tuesday that formalizes an understanding that U.S. trade countermeasures  will be removed when China resumes rare earths exports to the U.S. He also said that Trump is ready to

Tidbits Every month the USDA issues a Cold Storage Report . They are usually not significant for grains, but Wednesday’s report showed all but one of the food categories in the nation’s commercial freezers are substantially less than a year ago: red meat down 4%; beef down 1%; pork down 7% including bellies down 26% (just before BLT season), cheese down 2%, and butter down 5%. Only American cheese inventory was up, 5% more than a year ago. “American cheese” is a distinct prod

Tidbits Reuters reported yesterday that President Trump  and China's leader Xi held a phone call  that lasted about 90 minutes. The primary topic was trade. U.S. and Chinese officials plan to meet in person soon, resuming formal trade negotiations. Soybeans were higher because of that news. President Trump also had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin following the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airfields. Vladimir Putin stated that he will be obliged to resp

Tidbits Bloomberg reports Vietnam is expected to sign deals with the U.S. to increase purchases of ag exports. Corn and DDGS are at the top of the list. Vietnam has offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. products and increase its purchases of U.S. products. Vietnam is the world’s third largest importer of corn. Edurdo Vanin reported last evening:  “ U.S. beans  are the cheapest for smaller vessels for Europe and North Africa for Aug and Sept shipments, even cheaper than Northe

Highlights Multiple U.S. sources, including President Trump, said yesterday that trade negotiations with China  are going nowhere and perhaps backwards. That news is not a big surprise as there has been no news about the negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US-China trade deal is at risk of falling apart over rare earth minerals.   The U.S. trade deficit  narrowed to $87.6 billion in April, down $74.6 billion (46%) from a record $162.3 billion in March. The

Tidbits A U.S. trade court  on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump's tariffs from going into effect in a sweeping ruling that the president overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the United States than they buy. The Court of International Trade said the U.S. Constitution gives Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with other countries that is not overridden by the president's emergency powers to

Highlights The CBOT ag markets will reopen this evening at their normal times. Crude oil is trading normal hours today.  President Trump announced Sunday the 50% tariff on everything from the EU was delayed from 1 June until 9 July as the EU asked for more time to prepare a comprehensive economic and trade proposal for a long term trade deal with the United States. Corn and beans were lower Friday supposedly because Trump announced the 50% tariff on everything from the EU beg