BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits The Supreme Court’s decision that made a large portion of President Trump’s tariffs illegal will not have a direct impact on corn, wheat, and soybean prices. After all, Trump's tariffs are on imports into the U.S., not our exports.   Confusion and misinformation is often bearish, but Trump’s new 10% tariffs introduced on Friday afternoon will help stabilize all the markets. Those 10% tariffs will come into effect Tuesday and will be in place for 150 days, the White Ho

Tidbits Tariffs: The Supreme Court ruled yesterday by a vote of 6-3 that President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs are illegal. The Court ruled the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a 1977 law meant for national emergencies, does not authorize a president to impose tariffs. Tariffs are considered taxes/duties, which fall under Congress’ constitutional authority. Any broad delegation of authority to the President requires clear statutory language that IEEPA does not i

Tidbits President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Fed Chair Powell in May. Warsh is a lawyer and distinguished visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Warsh has said he believes the president is right to press the Fed for steep rate cuts and has criticized the central bank for underestimating the inflation-busting potential of productivity growth supercharged by artificial intelligence. He has also called for a broad overhaul, a "regim

Tidbits Futures: March soybeans, and all three March wheat contracts made new highs for the year yesterday and March corn traded to its highest price since before the USDA S&D on 12 January, despite the dollar index being a little higher yesterday for the second day in the past 8 days. Prices were supported by higher crude oil, cold temperatures (more soybean meal and corn for feed demand, fewer farmer sales, potential winter kill on wheat), expected strong export sales today

Tidbits Basis:  Poet at Fairbank, Iowa weakened their corn basis by 5¢ yesterday. Corning, Iowa Poet firmed their basis 2¢. Many corn river bids were 2 to 3¢ firmer. Cargill weakened their soybean basis in Sioux City, Iowa by 5¢ to -35H, but firmed their bean basis in Sidney, Ohio by 18¢ to +10H. ADM in Des Moines, Iowa firmed their bean basis by 5¢ to -30H.   A U.S. government shutdown  is possible by the end of the week, which could impact the bridge payments expected in Fe

Tidbits Exports: Yesterday morning, the USDA reported sales of 190,000 mts of old crop soybean meal to the Philippines. News sources indicate China has likely reached its 12 million mts commitment of U.S. soybeans purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year, and that further purchases are unlikely until September unless prices are competitive with South American soybean prices. Most of the volume is heading for reserves and is 47% fewer than China bought in 2024/25. The USDA pur

Tidbits The EU  is very upset that Trump has put a tariff on all their products shipped to the U.S. until the U.S. gains control of Greenland. The EU is our largest importer of soybean meal. Last year, the EU imported 20.6 million mts of U.S. soybean meal.   The U.S. economy  has two major problems:   Unprofitable grain production for most of the last three years with 2026 looking just as bad or worse.  Datacenters under construction or planned for construction will not have

Tidbits Flash sale:  Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown.   The U.S. Supreme Court  did not issue a ruling yesterday on President Trump’s global tariffs.   The U.S. unemployment  rate edged down to 4.4% in December 2025, from a revised 4.5% in November, which had marked the highest level since October 2021. The reading also came in slightly below market expectations of 4.5%. The economy added 50,000 non-farm payrolls i

Tidbits The commander of the Iranian Army Navy, Admiral Shahram Irani, stated yesterday that the 104th Iranian flotilla is headed towards South America with the objective of escorting freighters. President Donald Trump said the United States had dealt a deadly blow to ISIS terrorists in northwestern Nigeria. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova dismissed a Bloomberg report about Russia adjusting its Ukraine peace plan as fake news saying Bloomberg has no reli

Tidbits The U.S. GDP  for the third quarter 2025 was released a month late yesterday, but it was good news as the economy expanded 4.3% from a year ago; the market expected an expansion of 3.3%. There were about a dozen other less important economic indicators for the U.S. economy that were a mixed bag of good and not so good news. A year ago, “everybody” predicted the U.S. would be in a deep recession by now because of Trump’s tariffs. Here are the Quarterly GDP numbers sinc

Tidbits Interest Rate: Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 3 to lower the benchmark Fed Funds rate by a quarter point to a new target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. One vote was to lower the policy rate by half percent, while two votes supported no change. Post meeting comments included that the Federal Reserve will buy $40 billion worth of U.S. treasury bills over the next 30 days to put more money in circulation; the Fed expects one rate cut in 2026 and

Tidbits Corn: There were multiple reports that farmer sales of corn increased yesterday. December corn has tested the 200 day moving average 2 of the last 5 days. That moving average line is at $4.36½ today. Dec corn has been below the 200 day moving average since 6 June. So it is major technical resistance! We do expect corn and beans to weaken in the coming days because Friday next week is the first S&D from USDA in two months. Shutdown: Reportedly 8 Democrat senators have

Tidbits Venezuela : The Pentagon announced yesterday the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford with its Strike Group has been ordered to Latin America to target drug trafficking organizations, marking a significant increase of the U.S. military buildup in the Latin American region.     U.S. Economy:  Markets have priced-in nearly a 99% probability the Federal Reserve will reduce the Fed Fund interest rate 25 basis points (a quarter of a percent) next week, with similar odds for

Tidbits The U.S. budget  deficit for fiscal year 2025 narrowed to $1.775 trillion, a decrease of $41 billion from the previous year, driven by record federal receipts, up 6% from 2024. The improvement was supported by record high tariffs and customs revenues. The fiscal year, ending September 30, 2025, covered nearly nine months under the new administration and marked the first annual deficit decline since 2022. After buying $20 billion worth of Argentine pesos on 9 October,

Tidbits Farm aid: The U.S. Republican farm-state lawmakers urge the Trump administration to issue autumn farm aid by year-end due to low crop prices and a trade war. Four lawmakers are in talks with USDA and other officials about an aid package, ideally by December. Senator John Hoeven cites a similar $23 billion payout during Trump’s first term to offset China trade losses and suggests adding aid to a spending bill; he says farmers need help soon, but by year-end is acceptab

Tidbits The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 11 AM Central Time today. As expected, CBOT ag markets were higher yesterday as they recovered from oversold conditions the previous two days. The market will trade the production numbers in the few first minutes or so after the report is released, then the market will trade the U.S. carryover numbers for 3 to 20 minutes, and then the market will trade the world carryovers in

Tidbits Yesterday, December corn  opened unchanged at $4.18 (open price) and then traded to $4.14¼ (day low) technical support during the day. Before the close it recovered to $4.21 (day high) and settled at $4.19¾ (close price), up 1¾¢ for the day. Such four prices form a bar or a candle for the chart. Bar/candle charts give you more sense of the trading periods compared to linear charts (where only one price describes a period). We hope you are usually using either bar or c

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale  of 125,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown and 227,160 mts of new crop corn to a “different” unknown.   The futures financials priced-in a 75% probability the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rate  25 basis points (0.25%) in September, up from 45% before yesterday’s jobs data, which showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 77,000 in July, well below market expectations of 110,000. Worse yet, 258,000 job gains were removed from

Tidbits December corn  has closed higher 5 of the last 6 days and for 6 consecutive days, the high for the day was higher than the previous day’s high. September corn has done the same 3 consecutive days. Tomorrow is Friday. If corn futures settle steady or higher today, it is reasonable to expect some end of the week profit-taking tomorrow. On the other hand, there are more reports each day this week of pollination problems, now coming from four Corn Belt states. Is the poll

Tidbits Since the CFTC did not release its Commitment of Traders Report (changes in open interest) on the 4th of July, our Weekly Basis Report  will be issued Tuesday morning after the COT is released Monday afternoon after the market closes.      The weather forecast and trade negotiations can change dramatically in less than an hour, but it appears the CBOT  will have a good mix of bullish and bearish news when it opens this evening. Soybeans would appear to be the upside l