Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Market Comment There was no new news yesterday that justified such strong action. It felt like the buying was more of a ground-swell of bullish news that had not been fully priced into these markets for the past two years. Eduardo Vanin is a soybean export trader with AgrInvest Commodities said: “Seems market realized Brazil will not have enough beans to cover China and Brazil's local industry. Soybean meal up ~2.5% today. Market in China turned to (government) auctions, Arge

Tidbits Field feedback from Dave, who farms just northwest of Chicago: “Took a trip to Tulsa over the weekend. In my opinion, Iowa looks great. Corn and beans along with northern half Missouri, southwest Missouri they are chopping or getting ready to harvest corn into Oklahoma, double crop beans look terrible. Came back thru St. Louis up thru Springfield, Bloomington to Rockford, corn has run out of gas, yellow green look like middle September, beans look great. Keep in mind

S&D The USDA will issue its August S&D on Wednesday. This is the first 2026 crop production report in which yields will not be accounting estimates based upon unknown assumptions. While the yield numbers will not be based on field survey results, the yield numbers will be based on survey reports from approximately 15,000 farmers across the country of their individual crop conditions, expectations, and projected yields based on what they see in their fields at the beginning of

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Feedback: Some farmers in Central Minnesota (Morrison County) said they will start chopping corn Monday if they do not get rain this weekend. The U.S. GDP for the second quarter came in at 1.5% growth rate vs. 1.8% expected. Jobless claims were increased to 197,000 vs. 201,000 expected and below the recent average. The June Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) P

Tidbits Markets: November soybean futures lost nearly 30¢ and corn lost 9¢ Wednesday as some weather forecasts indicated rain relief for the Western Corn Belt with widespread rains into the early part of next week, with heaviest amounts seen for Iowa, Southern Minnesota and Northern Illinois. Those areas could see 1.25 inches to over 2 inches by Tuesday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Frankly, we cannot find a NWS five-day outlook with that prediction.

Tidbits Yesterday's mid-day price slump on the CBOT was nothing more than the market taking some profit after several days of gains. The tariffs announcement probably contributed to that. All three commodities traded lower. Only wheat settled lower, but it had gained the most in recent days. Flash sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 126,000 mt of new crop soybeans to unknown. The Spring Wheat Tour on Day Two saw an average yield of 48.1 bushels per acre in northw

Tidbits Iran: Fox News reported the U.S. military launched a new round of airstrikes against Iranian targets Saturday afternoon after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC) attacked a second commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a senior U.S. official. The strikes are targeting Iranian air defenses, drone storage facilities, cruise missiles, targeting radars, minelaying capabilities and surface-to-air missile systems. Despite this, media reports sugges

Tidbits Weather: The 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day weather forecasts have shifted from hot and wet to cool and wet for the Midwest, typical El Niño weather. U.S. Jobs: U.S. average job gains in 2025: 10,000 a month. U.S. average job gains first five months of 2026: 114,000 a month.

Tidbits The CBOT weakness this past week was a rough one to handle, but once the crop is planted, the price outlook in June is always about weather. The past seven days of weather forecasts included plenty of rain for the Corn Belt. We report to you the number of days with rain in the forecast for the next ten days for 12 locations across the Corn Belt. If all 12 locations expected rain in the ten-day forecast, the number of rain days would be 120! On 27 May, the number of ra

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 115,000 mts of new crop corn to Colombia. Biofuel: The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) filed a lawsuit Friday in the D.C. Circuit court challenging the 2026-2027 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes finalized by the EPA in March. The AFPM claims EPA’s “Set 2 rule” is the largest and most expensive RFS iteration in history and is the single most expensive regulation of President Trump’s second te

Tidbits Tariffs & Trade: The Trump administration on Tuesday proposed imposing additional duties of 10% or ​12.5% on imports from 60 economies after determining their failures to curb trade in ‌goods made with forced labor are unreasonable and restrict U.S. commerce. The proposal from the U.S. Trade Representative's office is the latest finding from a Section 301 unfair trade practices investigation to be released as the Trump administration seeks to ​rebuild its emergency ta

Tidbits Farm bankruptcies hit a six-year high in April, showing growing financial stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter-12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 130% jump from April 2025 and the highest monthly total since February 2020. Chapter 12 bankruptcy is a specialized legal framework designed specifically for "family farmers" or "family fishermen". It allows financially distressed agricultural producers to reorganize their debts and avoid liquidation, offering a

Tidbits National Weather Service 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecasts predict much above normal temperatures with normal rainfall for the northern half of the U.S., as of last evening. China expects El Niño weather effects to peak in autumn and winter this year, before weakening in spring next year. Iran: A tentative 60-day ‘memorandum of understanding’ has been reached to extend the ceasefire and initiate nuclear negotiations with Iran, pending approval from President Trump. U.

Tidbits Nebraska is the third largest corn producing state in the U.S. It produces just under 2 billion bushels of corn annually. Nebraska is now 94% under some level of drought with about 10% in exceptional drought. Brady Olson farms and ranches in northeast Montana. He said Friday: "I think we have a massive disaster/wreck in northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota. Soil is drifted like snowbanks. Fertilizer that should be 3+ inches in the ground is on top. So dry an

Tidbits Fuel: The Department of Treasury has scheduled a public hearing for 27 May on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. The proposed rule defines eligibility, emissions rates, and certification requirements. California’s year-end data has just been released. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) consumption reached 119.5 million gallons in 2025. U.S. Economy: Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose nearly 1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7% as both indexes made new highs. The Dow J

Tidbits November beans and December corn made their 2026 highs on Thursday 30 April. $11.78 and $4.99¾ respectively. The price of soybeans continues to rise today, exceeding $11.79. Japan’s Central Bank intervened in the foreign exchange market with buying yesterday. It was the first such intervention since July 2024. The yen buying raised its value versus the dollar by a massive 3.1%. The yen had its strongest day since 2022. Japan is the fourth largest importer of American

Tidbits We liked yesterday’s corn action. Yes, it was up 8¢, but what we really liked is all the settlement prices were less than a cent from the high for the day. This is a technical indication of strength because the traders did not take profit after a very nice daily gain as they usually have done on the corn. El Niño has become a topic of heavy discussion of late and for good reason. We have reported every Tuesday the weekly ENSO changes for about seven years. The past fo

Tidbits The Supreme Court’s decision that made a large portion of President Trump’s tariffs illegal will not have a direct impact on corn, wheat, and soybean prices. After all, Trump's tariffs are on imports into the U.S., not our exports. Confusion and misinformation is often bearish, but Trump’s new 10% tariffs introduced on Friday afternoon will help stabilize all the markets. Those 10% tariffs will come into effect Tuesday and will be in place for 150 days, the White Ho

Tidbits Tariffs: The Supreme Court ruled yesterday by a vote of 6-3 that President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs are illegal. The Court ruled the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a 1977 law meant for national emergencies, does not authorize a president to impose tariffs. Tariffs are considered taxes/duties, which fall under Congress’ constitutional authority. Any broad delegation of authority to the President requires clear statutory language that IEEPA does not i

Tidbits President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Fed Chair Powell in May. Warsh is a lawyer and distinguished visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Warsh has said he believes the president is right to press the Fed for steep rate cuts and has criticized the central bank for underestimating the inflation-busting potential of productivity growth supercharged by artificial intelligence. He has also called for a broad overhaul, a "regim