BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 125,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Fed Reserve: Yesterday, President Trump submitted his nomination of the former Fed governor, Kevin Warsh, to the Senate as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve to replace Jerome Powell in May. Cattle & Hogs: The American Rancher Alliance reported yesterday that three-day-old bull calves are now selling for $2,200. That is quite a testament to the confidence some p

Tidbits Logistics, Energy & Fertilizer: At 2:37 PM ET yesterday, President Trump ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for all maritime trade traveling through the Persian Gulf. The U.S. is preparing military measures to safeguard ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Energy contracts trimmed gains when that news came out early afternoon. In addition to 20% of the world’s crude oil, more than 30% of the world’s fe

Tidbits Next Tuesday, February 10, the USDA will release its S&D (WASDE) report. Reuters released its survey of analysts ahead of the report, showing an average 2025/26 carryout estimates: Corn - 2.227 billion bushels (same as in January S&D) Soybean - 347 million bushel (350 mil in January) Wheat - 918 million bushels (926 mil in January) Yesterday’s soybean trade volume reached roughly 930,000 contracts, marking a new all‑time record. U.S. net farm income would fall 0.7% to

Tidbits Shutdown: The Senate voted Friday to fund most of the federal government through the end of September, coupled with a temporary, two-week funding extension for the Department of Homeland Security. Since the Senate version of government funding is different from the funding legislation the House passed, the government officially shut down this weekend. The House will be back in session tomorrow to consider the Senate version of funding and is expected to approve it.  

Tidbits The government  will have a partial shutdown at midnight tonight unless the Senate can find 5 more votes to advance a House approved spending package. The Democrats said they would not support any legislation if it included funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Eight Republicans joined nearly all Democrats in voting no. One “no” vote by Senate Majority Leader John Thune was strictly a parliamentary procedural reason, to be able to request a vote to re

Tidbits Exports: Yesterday morning, the USDA reported sales of 190,000 mts of old crop soybean meal to the Philippines. News sources indicate China has likely reached its 12 million mts commitment of U.S. soybeans purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year, and that further purchases are unlikely until September unless prices are competitive with South American soybean prices. Most of the volume is heading for reserves and is 47% fewer than China bought in 2024/25. The USDA pur

Tidbits The U.S. GDP  for the third quarter 2025 was released a month late yesterday, but it was good news as the economy expanded 4.3% from a year ago; the market expected an expansion of 3.3%. There were about a dozen other less important economic indicators for the U.S. economy that were a mixed bag of good and not so good news. A year ago, “everybody” predicted the U.S. would be in a deep recession by now because of Trump’s tariffs. Here are the Quarterly GDP numbers sinc

Tidbits Trade talks:  Trump's special trade representative, John Cole, who was in Minsk in recent days for trade talks with Belarus’ officials, announced yesterday that the U.S. is lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash. Belarus is the world’s third leading potash exporter behind Canada and Russia.     Export sales:  As we reported yesterday, on Friday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 93,895 mts of old crop soybean meal to Mex

Tidbits Tariffs & Trade:  President Trump announced yesterday that he will increase tariffs on Canada by 10% after he accused the provincial government of Ontario of producing an ad campaign that misrepresented former President Reagan’s speech on tariffs.   The ad campaign, which aired during the World Series games in Toronto Friday evening, Trump said was aimed to influence the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court hearing on his administration’s tariffs. Ontario Premier Doug Ford agr

Tidbits Basis Bids:  On Thursday, St. Louis basis changes were: Soybean -12X (12¢ under November futures), was 10¢, the strongest level since August 13th. Corn 8¢ firmer to 4 over the December futures price. Soft Red Winter wheat was up 16¢ at -17Z (17¢ under December futures price). The Lower Mississippi is expected to drop below 8 feet by next Friday.   President Trump and Chinese President Xi  are scheduled to meet on 31 October.   Crude oil:  With crude oil refinery runs

Tidbits The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 11 AM Central Time today. As expected, CBOT ag markets were higher yesterday as they recovered from oversold conditions the previous two days. The market will trade the production numbers in the few first minutes or so after the report is released, then the market will trade the U.S. carryover numbers for 3 to 20 minutes, and then the market will trade the world carryovers in

Tidbits Today is the day that all August futures positions and basis contracts must be liquidated before the close and the Federal Reserve will announce its decision about interest rates  about the time the CBOT grain quits trading. Iowachill.com reported maximum wind speed  Monday night/Tuesday morning: U.S. and Chinese  officials agreed to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce after two days of talks in Stockholm, with no major breakthroughs announced. The decision

Tidbits Of all the railroads, BNSF Railway  (BNSF) originates the most grain carloads. Most of BNSF’s corn shipments are moved by shuttle trains (“shuttles”) made up of 110-120 hopper cars. Powered by a dedicated locomotive, each train moves as a single unit. BNSF’s shuttles are auctioned to shippers for yearlong contracts, during which shippers control where their shuttles load and unload.   BNSF’s shuttle program began shortly after the railroad’s founding in 1995. In 2000,

Tidbits The total U.S. soybean crush for March  was expected to be 205.5 million bushels, but USDA reported yesterday afternoon it was 206.572 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. The March canola crush was 200,953 tons, down about 5% from a year ago. The total corn crushed in March was 504 million bushels and the corn for ethanol was 454 million bushels, both down 4% from a year ago. New unemployment claims  in the U.S. for the last reporting week were above average at 24

Tidbits China, having a near monopoly on the rare earth metals  industry, has hinted at a stoppage since the first Trump administration. The country produces over 99% of the world’s heavy rare earth metals as well as 90% of rare earth magnets.   What is a rare earth metal? There are 17 so-called rare earth metals that are named not for being rare, but for being extremely difficult and environmentally dangerous to mine and process.   These metals are sometimes turned into powe

Tidbits After handling a record number of ocean freight containers in 2024, containers are stacking up at China ’s ports. Shanghai and Guangdong ports are seeing idle containers that missed the April 9, 2025, U.S. tariff deadline. Virtually no cargo ships were heading to the U.S. from these ports as of mid-April, and factory production in export hubs like Zhejiang and Guangdong has largely been halted.    China’s fiscal revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.1% less than

Highlights The U.S. Dollar Index  closed yesterday at the lowest level since April 2022. A lower dollar makes U.S. products more competitive in the world marketplace.   The 12 month U.S. Producer Price Index  (PPI) was reported yesterday morning at 2.7% versus 3.2% the previous month; the market expected 3.3%. For the month of March, the PPI was a negative 0.4%, versus +0.1% in February; the market expected +0.2% for March. PPI is the measure of inflation at the wholesale lev

Tidbits Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney  asked for the dissolution of Parliament, triggering a snap federal election for 28 April. Another variable to deal with is the trade and tariff debate.   Mike Lee is a British agronomist who works in the Black Sea  area, “The Breadbasket of the World.” We have exchanged some information with Mike for more than 20 years. Here is a 4-minute audio discussing the wheat crop condition in that area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4_kHc

Highlights Crude oil  was higher yesterday in past because of this press release yesterday morning from the U.S. Treasury : Today, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating a “teapot” oil refinery and its chief executive officer for purchasing and refining hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian crude oil, including from vessels linked to the Foreign Terrorist Organization, Ansarallah, commonly known as the Houthis, and

Highlights In response to Trump's tariffs that went into effect at 12:01 AM Tuesday, China placed an additional tariff of 15% on U.S. wheat, corn, cotton, chicken and an additional 10% on U.S. soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef and other agricultural products. Also China suspended on Tuesday the soybean import licences of three U.S. firms (CHS Inc, Louis Dreyfus Company Grains Merchandising LLC and export grain terminal operator EGT) and halted imports of U.S. logs, stepping up it