BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Basis Bids:  On Thursday, St. Louis basis changes were: Soybean -12X (12¢ under November futures), was 10¢, the strongest level since August 13th. Corn 8¢ firmer to 4 over the December futures price. Soft Red Winter wheat was up 16¢ at -17Z (17¢ under December futures price). The Lower Mississippi is expected to drop below 8 feet by next Friday.   President Trump and Chinese President Xi  are scheduled to meet on 31 October.   Crude oil:  With crude oil refinery runs

Tidbits The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 11 AM Central Time today. As expected, CBOT ag markets were higher yesterday as they recovered from oversold conditions the previous two days. The market will trade the production numbers in the few first minutes or so after the report is released, then the market will trade the U.S. carryover numbers for 3 to 20 minutes, and then the market will trade the world carryovers in

Tidbits Today is the day that all August futures positions and basis contracts must be liquidated before the close and the Federal Reserve will announce its decision about interest rates  about the time the CBOT grain quits trading. Iowachill.com reported maximum wind speed  Monday night/Tuesday morning: U.S. and Chinese  officials agreed to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce after two days of talks in Stockholm, with no major breakthroughs announced. The decision

Tidbits Of all the railroads, BNSF Railway  (BNSF) originates the most grain carloads. Most of BNSF’s corn shipments are moved by shuttle trains (“shuttles”) made up of 110-120 hopper cars. Powered by a dedicated locomotive, each train moves as a single unit. BNSF’s shuttles are auctioned to shippers for yearlong contracts, during which shippers control where their shuttles load and unload.   BNSF’s shuttle program began shortly after the railroad’s founding in 1995. In 2000,

Tidbits The total U.S. soybean crush for March  was expected to be 205.5 million bushels, but USDA reported yesterday afternoon it was 206.572 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. The March canola crush was 200,953 tons, down about 5% from a year ago. The total corn crushed in March was 504 million bushels and the corn for ethanol was 454 million bushels, both down 4% from a year ago. New unemployment claims  in the U.S. for the last reporting week were above average at 24

Tidbits China, having a near monopoly on the rare earth metals  industry, has hinted at a stoppage since the first Trump administration. The country produces over 99% of the world’s heavy rare earth metals as well as 90% of rare earth magnets.   What is a rare earth metal? There are 17 so-called rare earth metals that are named not for being rare, but for being extremely difficult and environmentally dangerous to mine and process.   These metals are sometimes turned into powe

Tidbits After handling a record number of ocean freight containers in 2024, containers are stacking up at China ’s ports. Shanghai and Guangdong ports are seeing idle containers that missed the April 9, 2025, U.S. tariff deadline. Virtually no cargo ships were heading to the U.S. from these ports as of mid-April, and factory production in export hubs like Zhejiang and Guangdong has largely been halted.    China’s fiscal revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.1% less than

Highlights The U.S. Dollar Index  closed yesterday at the lowest level since April 2022. A lower dollar makes U.S. products more competitive in the world marketplace.   The 12 month U.S. Producer Price Index  (PPI) was reported yesterday morning at 2.7% versus 3.2% the previous month; the market expected 3.3%. For the month of March, the PPI was a negative 0.4%, versus +0.1% in February; the market expected +0.2% for March. PPI is the measure of inflation at the wholesale lev

Tidbits Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney  asked for the dissolution of Parliament, triggering a snap federal election for 28 April. Another variable to deal with is the trade and tariff debate.   Mike Lee is a British agronomist who works in the Black Sea  area, “The Breadbasket of the World.” We have exchanged some information with Mike for more than 20 years. Here is a 4-minute audio discussing the wheat crop condition in that area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4_kHc

Highlights Crude oil  was higher yesterday in past because of this press release yesterday morning from the U.S. Treasury : Today, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating a “teapot” oil refinery and its chief executive officer for purchasing and refining hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian crude oil, including from vessels linked to the Foreign Terrorist Organization, Ansarallah, commonly known as the Houthis, and

Highlights In response to Trump's tariffs that went into effect at 12:01 AM Tuesday, China placed an additional tariff of 15% on U.S. wheat, corn, cotton, chicken and an additional 10% on U.S. soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef and other agricultural products. Also China suspended on Tuesday the soybean import licences of three U.S. firms (CHS Inc, Louis Dreyfus Company Grains Merchandising LLC and export grain terminal operator EGT) and halted imports of U.S. logs, stepping up it

At 10 AM Mountain Time today the USDA will issue its November S&D.  On Wednesday, an EPA auditor gave an agricultural commercial chemical applicator, who does business with one of our clients, a set of new regulations that went into effect Wednesday. The applicator told our client these new regulations will require some serious limitations in 2025. The limited information our client has is that the new regulations have something to do with the Endangered Species Act. If any o

Highlights Andy sent us river depth information from the Soy Transportation Coalition. "For each foot of draft reduction on the river, an individual barge is loaded with 7,000 fewer bushels (200 tons) of soybeans. In certain areas of the river, we are seeing several feet of draft restrictions due to low water. In addition, the lack of water will narrow the shipping channel, which limits the number of barges that can be attached together to form one single flotilla or tow. Dep

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. It will show the inventory of all commodities as of September first and there could be some production and consumption adjustments made for any of the past three marketing years. In other words, there could be some big surprises. We expect some serious long futures profit-taking and cash selling of corn and beans before the report comes out.    The ten-day weather forecast showed ra

Tidbits Yesterday, China announced more stimulus measures to try to reach a 2024 economic growth target of 5%. China added ~$284 billion equivalent in bonds and cut bank reserve requirement ratios by 50 basis points. The three-month interest rate was down to 1.5%, and their one-year interest rate is now at 2%. By comparison, the one-year interest rate here in the U.S. for government one year T-Bills is at 3.96%.   Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 20,000 mts o

Highlights The US Congress did pass a temporary funding bill yesterday to keep the US government operating until December 20. It is assumed President Biden will sign it since all Democrats in the Congress voted for it.   Grain workers at Canada’s biggest grain loading port did go on strike Tuesday. Vancouver port handled about 52% of grain produced in Canada last year.   About 45,000 dockworkers at every major eastern and Gulf coast port are scheduled to strike midnight 30 Se

Highlights Oil prices posted a second weekly gain as bullish sentiment builds and the prospect of a prolonged price rally becomes increasingly likely according to oilprice.com  analysts.   The fact that the US Federal Reserve has at last initiated a new cycle of monetary easing should have prompted a stronger market response. With a weaker dollar and an improved macro risk outlook, next week could see further upside as crude oil inventories in the United States have dropped t

Highlights Canada’s government has ordered Canada’s railways and workers’ union to get back to work on Friday. Union members went to work yesterday, but it will take several days to get back up and running smoothly.   The BNSF has halted grain shuttle trains to Mexico for 3 days due to ongoing congestion and service interruptions that have resulted in equipment being held in Mexico, according to BNSF and USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service. This could end up being a huge hi

Highlights Weekend weather was hotter and much drier than predicted in the Eastern Corn Belt where there is no subsoil moisture. West Central Ohio, the past two months, has received very light widely scattered showers 2 to 4 times a week, just enough to keep the corn and beans looking pretty good, but not nearly enough to keep the crops looking good if those light, scattered showers do not fall for 5 days.    The Washington Post reported yesterday Ukraine and Russia were set

Highlights NOPA members crushed 182.881 million bushels of soybean in July, which was 442,400 bushels more than the market expected. That was 5.5% more than last year’s record large July crush. Better yet, oil stocks were 1.499 billion pounds, which was 109 million fewer pounds than the market expected.   Soybean oil and meal basis in Brazil is sharply higher this week. The resulting improving crush margins for the beans makes Brazil’s small bean supplies for export smaller y