At 10 AM Mountain Time today, the USDA will release its Actual Planted Acres, Quarterly Grain Stocks and Wheat Production Reports. Corn has sold off and beans have rallied going into today’s reports. The analysts expect about a half million more corn acres and a half million fewer beans than the March Intentions. However, based upon market action, the market expects about 2 to 2.5 million more corn acres and 1.5 to 2 million fewer bean acres.
It will be very difficult for today’s numbers to be bearish corn and, to an extent, difficult for the numbers to be bullish beans. The market seems to not care about the old crop inventory numbers, just new crop acres. If there is a surprise, it will most likely be bullish because of less than expected corn and bean inventories and bearish wheat because too much wheat on hand.
July beans have gained a buck the past four days. What does that tell you about old crop soybean supplies?
July corn gained 49 cents the past four days while December corn lost 27 cents? What does that tell you about old crop supplies?
July CBOT wheat has lost $1.78 the past nine days. What does that tell you about the availability of wheat?