BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Yesterday’s February S&D  increased 2025/26 U.S. corn exports, which reduced the marketing year carryover by ~5% or 3 days’ use. World corn carryover was lowered by 1 days’ use as well, it is the smallest in 9 years. World soybean and domestic wheat carryover rose about 1%. The USDA  is the world's gold standard for crop estimates, but it faces mounting doubts about the reliability of its data from farmers, grain traders and economists following deep staff losses and

The numbers were friendly for corn, neutral for wheat and beans.   CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Mar corn +1 Mar beans +9 (same as before report) July CBOT wheat -3 July KC wheat -1 Sept Spring wheat -1

Tidbits Futures: March soybeans, and all three March wheat contracts made new highs for the year yesterday and March corn traded to its highest price since before the USDA S&D on 12 January, despite the dollar index being a little higher yesterday for the second day in the past 8 days. Prices were supported by higher crude oil, cold temperatures (more soybean meal and corn for feed demand, fewer farmer sales, potential winter kill on wheat), expected strong export sales today

Tidbits Homeland Energy at Lawler in Northeast Iowa, is allowing contracted corn for February to be delivered now. Another tidbit of bullishness for corn prices. Exports: The U.S. has shipped over 2 million tons of soybeans to Egypt since September, up 43% from the same period last season. That covers more than 40% of Egypt's projected annual imports. The U.S. share increased to 76% from 41% in recent years, while Ukraine's share fell from 33% to 15%. Brazilian beef exports w

USDA's S&D Highlights The highlights of yesterday’s USDA data were: Corn yield: 186.5, 1.2 bushels above the highest  pre-report estimate.     Corn production was 294 million bushels more than the highest  estimate. Corn harvested acres: 900,000 more than the highest estimate with an increase of 1.22 million in January after an increase of 1.38 million in September after a 1.93 million increase  in August. Corn world carryover was 7.91 million mts more than the highest estima

The numbers were bearish for corn, wheat and beans.   CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Mar corn -17 Mar beans -14 July CBOT wheat -8 July KC wheat -9 Sept Spring wheat -1    Do not panic sell. If anything, buy some futures to offset previous cash sales. There will not be any worse news than this and users will be buying ahead. The market is not going to believe these corn production numbers.

S&D Highlights Corn:  On yesterday’s S&D, corn received the strongest boost as exports increased by 125 million bushels and the carryover was reduced by the same amount to 2,029 million bushels, a 45 day supply, down 4 days from last month and well below market expectations. As is normal for December, there were no production changes on this S&D. World corn carryout was reduced by 86 million bushels, but the days’ use needle was not moved and is still at 79 days compared to 8

The numbers were overall a non-event: Friendly for corn Supportive for soybeans  Neutral wheat   CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Mar corn +3 Jan beans -7 July CBOT wheat -2 July KC wheat -2 Sept Spring wheat +1    The 2024-25 numbers are meaningless as that marketing year ended three months ago!

Tidbits USDA Secretary  Brooke Rollins announced major updates to federal crop insurance to:  Reduce red tape Modernizing long-standing policies Expand access to critical risk protection She said for every new regulation added, there were 48 regulations eliminated. You can read an AI summary  on our website or the whole document  in the Federal Registry.   Crude oil  closed at a 16 day high yesterday supported by decreased probability of an end to the Russia and Ukraine war.

An AI summary of the key points — and especially what changes under the Expanding Access to Risk Protection  (EARP) final rule (2025-21482) mean — with particular notes about possible impacts for row-crop producers. What is EARP The rule was issued by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC / Risk Management Agency, RMA) under the US Department of Agriculture. It revises the regulations in 7 CFR (Parts 400, 407, 457), covering the Basic Provisions of the main crop-insura

November S&D Last year, the USDA started the 2024 corn crop with a yield of 181 in May and continued that yield in June and July. In August, USDA put the yield at 183.2, then 183.6 in September, then 183.8 in October, 183.1 in November. There is no crop production report in December, so the December S&D always has the same yield as November S&D. This year may be different because of the shut down, but we doubt it.   On 10 January 2025, March corn was $4.52, 52¢ above its cont

The USDA WASDE (S&D) numbers were negative everything.   CBOT 40 Minutes After Report Dec corn -9 Jan beans -15 July CBOT wheat -10 July KC wheat -10 Sept Spring wheat -6    Corn will soon resume the uptrend – world supplies tighten and market does not believe 186 yield.

Tidbits The corn stocks  number yesterday was 82 million bushels higher than the highest estimate and 196 million bushels more than the average estimate. Yesterday’s low on December corn was lower than the last two lows made on corrections after making new highs for the move in September. The trend of higher highs and higher lows since 12 August has been broken and the price went below the 20-day moving average, which is a bearish technical indicator. However, the SuperTrend

The numbers were: Negative to Bearish Corn and Wheat Neutral Soybeans CBOT 30 Minutes After Report Dec corn -6 Nov beans -8 July CBOT...

Tidbits Additional financial aid  to American farmers will soon be provided by the Trump administration as Agriculture Secretary Rollins said an announcement could come “perhaps in the next couple of weeks." The USDA  will lead a trade mission to Taipei, Taiwan , to expand trade opportunities for U.S. companies and boost U.S. agricultural exports. The mission takes place from September 29 to October 1 and includes 39 agribusinesses, trade organizations, and representatives fr

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 22,000 mts of soybean oil to South Korea.   Tariffs:  U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with the Chinese Vice Premier this coming week in Madrid to discuss national security, economic and trade issues.   The Financial Times reports the U.S. is pushing a plan for all G7 partners to adopt steep tariffs on China and India because of their purchasing of Russian crude oil.   Brazil:  The former con

The numbers were: Negative Corn and Soybeans Neutral Wheat    CBOT 30 Minutes After Report Dec corn +1 Nov beans +6 July CBOT wheat -3...

S&D Report Comment The biggest surprise on yesterday’s USDA S&D was the 2.1 million increase in corn planted acres and the decrease of 2.5 million acres of soybeans. The adjustment was made primarily as a result of the FSA certified acreage totals being available. This is the third consecutive year the FSA had the certified acreage paperwork completed before the August S&D. Always before, the certified acreage numbers were not available until September.   There is probably no

The numbers were:   Bearish Corn Yield was 188.8. That was higher than the highest estimate Corn acres were increased 2.1 million Bullish...

Tidbits Of all the railroads, BNSF Railway  (BNSF) originates the most grain carloads. Most of BNSF’s corn shipments are moved by shuttle trains (“shuttles”) made up of 110-120 hopper cars. Powered by a dedicated locomotive, each train moves as a single unit. BNSF’s shuttles are auctioned to shippers for yearlong contracts, during which shippers control where their shuttles load and unload.   BNSF’s shuttle program began shortly after the railroad’s founding in 1995. In 2000,