BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

November S&D Last year, the USDA started the 2024 corn crop with a yield of 181 in May and continued that yield in June and July. In August, USDA put the yield at 183.2, then 183.6 in September, then 183.8 in October, 183.1 in November. There is no crop production report in December, so the December S&D always has the same yield as November S&D. This year may be different because of the shut down, but we doubt it.   On 10 January 2025, March corn was $4.52, 52¢ above its cont

The USDA WASDE (S&D) numbers were negative everything.   CBOT 40 Minutes After Report Dec corn -9 Jan beans -15 July CBOT wheat -10 July KC wheat -10 Sept Spring wheat -6    Corn will soon resume the uptrend – world supplies tighten and market does not believe 186 yield.

Tidbits The corn stocks  number yesterday was 82 million bushels higher than the highest estimate and 196 million bushels more than the average estimate. Yesterday’s low on December corn was lower than the last two lows made on corrections after making new highs for the move in September. The trend of higher highs and higher lows since 12 August has been broken and the price went below the 20-day moving average, which is a bearish technical indicator. However, the SuperTrend

The numbers were: Negative to Bearish Corn and Wheat Neutral Soybeans CBOT 30 Minutes After Report Dec corn -6 Nov beans -8 July CBOT...

Tidbits Additional financial aid  to American farmers will soon be provided by the Trump administration as Agriculture Secretary Rollins said an announcement could come “perhaps in the next couple of weeks." The USDA  will lead a trade mission to Taipei, Taiwan , to expand trade opportunities for U.S. companies and boost U.S. agricultural exports. The mission takes place from September 29 to October 1 and includes 39 agribusinesses, trade organizations, and representatives fr

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 22,000 mts of soybean oil to South Korea.   Tariffs:  U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with the Chinese Vice Premier this coming week in Madrid to discuss national security, economic and trade issues.   The Financial Times reports the U.S. is pushing a plan for all G7 partners to adopt steep tariffs on China and India because of their purchasing of Russian crude oil.   Brazil:  The former con

The numbers were: Negative Corn and Soybeans Neutral Wheat    CBOT 30 Minutes After Report Dec corn +1 Nov beans +6 July CBOT wheat -3...

S&D Report Comment The biggest surprise on yesterday’s USDA S&D was the 2.1 million increase in corn planted acres and the decrease of 2.5 million acres of soybeans. The adjustment was made primarily as a result of the FSA certified acreage totals being available. This is the third consecutive year the FSA had the certified acreage paperwork completed before the August S&D. Always before, the certified acreage numbers were not available until September.   There is probably no

The numbers were:   Bearish Corn Yield was 188.8. That was higher than the highest estimate Corn acres were increased 2.1 million Bullish...

Tidbits Of all the railroads, BNSF Railway  (BNSF) originates the most grain carloads. Most of BNSF’s corn shipments are moved by shuttle trains (“shuttles”) made up of 110-120 hopper cars. Powered by a dedicated locomotive, each train moves as a single unit. BNSF’s shuttles are auctioned to shippers for yearlong contracts, during which shippers control where their shuttles load and unload.   BNSF’s shuttle program began shortly after the railroad’s founding in 1995. In 2000,

Highlights USDA increased their old crop corn export projection on yesterday’s S&D by 100 million bushels to 2,750 million bushels. The past four S&D reports have increased this marketing year’s corn exports a total of 300 million bushels. Unfortunately, USDA also reduced feed use for corn by 75 million bushels yesterday even though the marketing year ends 31 August. The animal numbers reported by USDA in recent months do not justify a feed cut and there was no increase in fe

The numbers were: Very Friendly to Bullish Corn Neutral to Unfriendly Soybeans Neutral Wheat Every corn number on the report was less...

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Unfriendly Old Crop Soybeans Friendly New Crop Soybeans Unfriendly Wheat 15 minutes after the report:...

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral Soybeans Friendly Wheat    40 Minutes After the Report: July Corn unchg Dec corn -1 July beans -9...

Highlights The U.S. and China trade agreement details announced yesterday morning: A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Both Countries dropped their tariff rates by 115 percent points. The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduced from 145% to 30%. China’s tariffs on U.S. goods will be 10%, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 91% removed. China removed all non-tariff countermeasures (all “lame” excuses like quotas, phyto-sanitary restrictions, etc.) China sent their deputy minist

The numbers were: Friendly to Bullish Corn Friendly Soybeans Negative U.S. Wheat    40 Minutes After the Report: July Corn +4 Dec corn +3...

Tidbits The day before yesterday’s trade talk between China  and the U.S. were to begin, President Trump said reducing the tariff  to 80% on Chinese goods "seems right," suggesting an alternative to the current 145% tariff. The meeting took place in Geneva as scheduled yesterday, but neither side made any comment about the discussion other than they will meet again today. Saturday's talks began in the morning and continued into the evening. It is generally considered a positi

Highlights The highly respected London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG, which bought Refinitiv, formerly the Financial and Risk business of Thomson Reuters) predicts U.S. corn acres at 94.3 million (USDA 95.3). Stats Canada reported corn for grain stocks as of 31 March 2025, were down 13% from a year ago at 7.197 million mt. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 40,000 mts of old crop corn and 165,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 115,000 mts of old crop corn to unkn

Highlights The biggest news piece from yesterday’s S&D was the USDA increased corn exports by 100 million bushels. As many expected, the corn for feed was reduced by 25 million bushels, so the carryout was reduced by 75 million bushels, which took the carryout from a 37 day supply to a 35 day supply. The market expected a 30 million bushel reduction in the corn carryout. USDA did not change any of the corn or soybean production numbers for Brazil, Argentina, or Paraguay. Stud

The numbers were: Friendly to Bullish Corn Friendly Soybeans Negative U.S. Wheat  Neutral World Wheat    20 Minutes After the Report: May...