Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

USDA’s July S&D Yesterday’s USDA numbers were supportive for corn, wheat, and beans, but wheat got an extra boost from Russia restricting access to waterways leading to the Sea of Azov (southeast of Ukraine) following Ukrainian attacks on oil tankers operating in the region. Analysts calculate that could take 735 million bushels off the world wheat market. Russia is the world’s leading wheat exporter. Confirmation from USDA that U.S. 2026 wheat production is the lowest in 56

The report was: Friendly Wheat Friendly Soybeans Bullish Corn: Old Crop World Corn Carryover 3 mil mts less than the lowest estimate US Corn exports and feed use increased 50 Minutes after the July S&D Was Issued: Dec Corn +8 Nov Beans +5 Sept SRW Wheat +21 Sept HRW Wheat +23 Sept HRS Wheat +14 There were no corn or soybean yield changes

30 June 2026: USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks USDA reported farmers did not decrease corn acres from their March Intentions. They planted as much corn as they said they would in March, 95.3 million acres. The friendly corn news was the corn demand. June 1 corn stocks at 5.295 billion bushels, 14% above last year, with on-farm holdings up 16% to 2.96 billion. The real story is the less than expected corn stocks. The actual corn inventory was 97 million bushels less than one pre-

June S&D Yesterday’s USDA June S&D was about as expected except for the increase of South American corn crops. USDA increased old crop corn imports by 3 million bushels which carried through to the carryover. Old crop soybean exports were reduced by 20 million bushels, but the old crop soybean crush was increased the same 20 million bushels, which left the carryover unchanged at 340 million bushels, a 29 day supply. There was no change in the 2026 corn or bean production numb

Numbers were: Slightly Friendly Wheat Slightly Negative Corn due to increased world carryovers Neutral Soybeans 25 Minutes after the June S&D Was Issued: July Corn -3.5 Dec Corn -4 July Beans -8.5 Nov Beans -5 July SRW Wheat +1 July HRW Wheat +5 Sept HRS Wheat +2

Tidbits Yesterday’s S&D was decided bullish for wheat, friendly for soybeans and longer term friendly for corn because the world corn carryout on 31 August 2027 is projected to be a 77 day supply. Four years ago this week, December corn traded to $7.66 with the world new crop corn carryout projected to be a 94 day supply. Granted, the U.S corn carryout that year was projected to be 34 day supply whereas this year’s domestic new crop corn carryover is projected to be a 44 day

Old crop carryovers were just about as expected for everything except world wheat was 3.8 million mts less than expected and 2.8 million mts less than the lowest estimate. That small old crop wheat carryover and short new crop production made the new crop wheat world carryover just above the lowest estimate and well below expectations. World new crop corn carrover was 9.2 million mts less than expected. Note the world corn carryover has been relatively tight for several y

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to South Korea. Annual U.S. retail inflation was reported at 2.8% in February, the same pace as in the previous month and matching expectations. Core annual inflation excluding food and energy was 3%, down from 3.1% in the prior month. Both remain well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 on the week ending April 4th, higher than was expected, t

CBOT 10 Minutes After The April S&D Report May corn -4 Dec Corn -3 May beans +2 Nov Benas +1 July CBOT wheat -10 July KC wheat -9 Sept Spring wheat -5 Above prices were just slightly weaker after the report than before the report. Biggest news is soybean exports were reduced by 35 million bushels, but soybean crush was increased by the same amount. No changes in South A merican crop sizes.

Highlights: Iran Shortly after 6 AM Central time yesterday morning, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran and the U.S. had engaged in “good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution” of the hostilities. Consequently, Trump wrote that he had ordered the Department of War to postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. That sent crude oil down $10 and CBOT markets went from smartly higher to low

Tidbits S&D: As expected, the USDA did not make any significant changes to the U.S. balance sheets, as ending stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat remained unchanged. Corn global inventories rose nearly 3 million mts; production rose 1.7 million mts in Ukraine and 1 million mts in Brazil, while down 1 million mts in Argentina. The average U.S. Farm price for 2025/26 at $4.10 and for 2026/27 it was pegged at $4.20 in February.

The numbers were neutral for corn, wheat and beans. CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Were the Same as Before Report May corn -5 Dec Corn -5 May beans +7 July CBOT wheat -14 July KC wheat -13 Sept Spring wheat -13

Tidbits Yesterday’s February S&D increased 2025/26 U.S. corn exports, which reduced the marketing year carryover by ~5% or 3 days’ use. World corn carryover was lowered by 1 days’ use as well, it is the smallest in 9 years. World soybean and domestic wheat carryover rose about 1%. The USDA is the world's gold standard for crop estimates, but it faces mounting doubts about the reliability of its data from farmers, grain traders and economists following deep staff losses and a

The numbers were friendly for corn, neutral for wheat and beans. CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Mar corn +1 Mar beans +9 (same as before report) July CBOT wheat -3 July KC wheat -1 Sept Spring wheat -1

Tidbits Futures: March soybeans, and all three March wheat contracts made new highs for the year yesterday and March corn traded to its highest price since before the USDA S&D on 12 January, despite the dollar index being a little higher yesterday for the second day in the past 8 days. Prices were supported by higher crude oil, cold temperatures (more soybean meal and corn for feed demand, fewer farmer sales, potential winter kill on wheat), expected strong export sales today

Tidbits Homeland Energy at Lawler in Northeast Iowa, is allowing contracted corn for February to be delivered now. Another tidbit of bullishness for corn prices. Exports: The U.S. has shipped over 2 million tons of soybeans to Egypt since September, up 43% from the same period last season. That covers more than 40% of Egypt's projected annual imports. The U.S. share increased to 76% from 41% in recent years, while Ukraine's share fell from 33% to 15%. Brazilian beef exports w

USDA's S&D Highlights The highlights of yesterday’s USDA data were: Corn yield: 186.5, 1.2 bushels above the highest pre-report estimate. Corn production was 294 million bushels more than the highest estimate. Corn harvested acres: 900,000 more than the highest estimate with an increase of 1.22 million in January after an increase of 1.38 million in September after a 1.93 million increase in August. Corn world carryover was 7.91 million mts more than the highest estimate.

The numbers were bearish for corn, wheat and beans. CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Mar corn -17 Mar beans -14 July CBOT wheat -8 July KC wheat -9 Sept Spring wheat -1 Do not panic sell. If anything, buy some futures to offset previous cash sales. There will not be any worse news than this and users will be buying ahead. The market is not going to believe these corn production numbers.

S&D Highlights Corn: On yesterday’s S&D, corn received the strongest boost as exports increased by 125 million bushels and the carryover was reduced by the same amount to 2,029 million bushels, a 45 day supply, down 4 days from last month and well below market expectations. As is normal for December, there were no production changes on this S&D. World corn carryout was reduced by 86 million bushels, but the days’ use needle was not moved and is still at 79 days compared to 85

The numbers were overall a non-event: Friendly for corn Supportive for soybeans Neutral wheat CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Mar corn +3 Jan beans -7 July CBOT wheat -2 July KC wheat -2 Sept Spring wheat +1 The 2024-25 numbers are meaningless as that marketing year ended three months ago!