Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sales of old crop soybeans: 272,000 mts to China and 206,500 mts to unknown. Chinese purchases of U.S. beans have likely reached 13 million mts with Chinese leader Xi visiting Washington 2 weeks away. The market expects them to buy 25 million during the marketing year. South America: Brazilian September exports of soybean are expected to reach 7.74 million mts, up 11% from a year ago. Their corn exports are expected at onl

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 202,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. U.S. Crops: A farmer survey conducted by agricultural commodity brokerage and analysis firm Allendale forecast the U.S. 2026 corn crop at 15.833 billion bushels, with an average yield of 178.7 bushels per acre, which is below the USDA's outlook of 16.013 billion bushels and 180.7 yield. Their 2026 soybean crop forecast is at 4.515 billion bushels, with an average yield of 52.

Market Comment There was no new news yesterday that justified such strong action. It felt like the buying was more of a ground-swell of bullish news that had not been fully priced into these markets for the past two years. Eduardo Vanin is a soybean export trader with AgrInvest Commodities said: “Seems market realized Brazil will not have enough beans to cover China and Brazil's local industry. Soybean meal up ~2.5% today. Market in China turned to (government) auctions, Arge

Tidbits The U.S. President announced late on Tuesday he was putting a three-day pause on new ​50% tariffs set to go into effect on Canadian goods yesterday, saying the two countries had reached a deal. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels in the week ended August 14, marking a third consecutive weekly increase. Gasoline stocks rose by 0.7 million barrels and the market was looking for a decline, while distillate stockpiles fell by 1.

Tidbits Field feedback from Dave, who farms just northwest of Chicago: “Took a trip to Tulsa over the weekend. In my opinion, Iowa looks great. Corn and beans along with northern half Missouri, southwest Missouri they are chopping or getting ready to harvest corn into Oklahoma, double crop beans look terrible. Came back thru St. Louis up thru Springfield, Bloomington to Rockford, corn has run out of gas, yellow green look like middle September, beans look great. Keep in mind

Tidbits Showers in the southern half of Iowa and northern Missouri, with additional scattered rains across Nebraska and Kansas, pressured corn and beans yesterday. Technical support at the 50 day moving price average for corn and the 100 day moving average for beans held, which is a significant bullish indication given the amount of rain that has fallen this week and expected into next week. Rain is the whole story this week despite the corn crop rating losing 6 percentage po

Tidbits Markets: November soybean futures lost nearly 30¢ and corn lost 9¢ Wednesday as some weather forecasts indicated rain relief for the Western Corn Belt with widespread rains into the early part of next week, with heaviest amounts seen for Iowa, Southern Minnesota and Northern Illinois. Those areas could see 1.25 inches to over 2 inches by Tuesday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Frankly, we cannot find a NWS five-day outlook with that prediction.

Tidbits The National Weather Service forecast issued last evening for the next two weeks sees above normal temperatures for most of the 48 states and below normal rainfall extending from the PNW to the Western Corn Belt. Over the weekend, wildfire outbreaks continue to rage in the PNW. Hundreds of thousands of acres have burned across Washington and Oregon alone. Wheat: The North Dakota wheat tour projected a 48 bushel spring wheat yield. USDA is at 58 bushels yield for the

Tidbits The first case of Southern Rust in Iowa this season was confirmed Tuesday morning in a Benton County corn field, according to Iowa State University Extension. The Wheat Quality Council's spring wheat tour estimated North Dakota's spring crop at 45.9 bushels per acre, down from 49.8 last year. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 2 million barrels in the week ended July 17, compared with market expectations for a 1.25 million-barrel draw. National gasoline stocks rose by

Tidbits The NOPA soybean crush in June was 214.34 million bushels of soybeans, up 2.7% from May and up 15.7% from a year ago. It exceeded trade expectations as the daily pace of processing rebounded from an eight-month low posted in May to the strongest level in three months. You can learn about the NOPA via the link: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/about-the-nopa The USDA is now accepting applications for its Agribusiness Trade Mission to Vietnam on November 9-12. Vie

Tidbits Some analysts said the sharply higher crude oil was why CBOT prices were smartly lower yesterday while other analysts said it was the belt of scattered showers from Kansas to Minnesota with more in the forecast for today and tomorrow. We will side with the rain for the lower prices. When it is July and rain is falling on Iowa, corn and beans will be down. Some weakness is caused every month by the fear of the USDA monthly S&D, which will be released tomorrow at 11 AM

Tidbits Acres: Matt Bennet of Agmarket.net expects actual planted corn acres to be less than the March Intentions due to high fertilizer prices, supply challenges, and excessive moisture across regions of the United States. However, the firm says rallying corn prices during the spring kept the reduction from being more significant. Bennett says any acres lost in corn most likely shifted directly to soybeans. The firm believes combined corn and soybean acres are at 180.2 milli

Tidbits The U.S. and Iran released the text of an interim agreement their presidents have signed to end their war on Wednesday, with the U.S. President threatening to resume attacks and kill Iranian officials if they failed to honour their ​commitments. Iran's leaders did not address the new threats. The memorandum of understanding stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, with Iran agreeing to allow “safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only,

Tidbits June S&D: At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its June S&D. It most likely will have very little impact on the markets. It is too early for USDA to change yields or acres for corn and beans. Wheat production could be interesting, but wheat harvest is just getting a good start. The demand side could see an increase in corn exports, a decrease in soybean exports with an increase in soybean crush. Will USDA reduce or increase the size of Brazil’s safrinha co

Tidbits New ‌World screwworm ​has been found and confirmed in a ​calf ​in Texas, the ‌USDA said ​on ​Wednesday ⁠evening, exposing ​the ​nation's ⁠cattle herd to ⁠a ​serious ​new threat. That screw worm contributed to yesterday’s late weakness in corn. The U.S. typically imports over a million cattle from Mexico every year. The import suspension contributed to rising beef prices by tightening the supply of beef cattle. An expansive U.S. outbreak would further tighten the suppl

Tidbits National Weather Service 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecasts predict much above normal temperatures with normal rainfall for the northern half of the U.S., as of last evening. China expects El Niño weather effects to peak in autumn and winter this year, before weakening in spring next year. Iran: A tentative 60-day ‘memorandum of understanding’ has been reached to extend the ceasefire and initiate nuclear negotiations with Iran, pending approval from President Trump. U.

Tidbits Market Comment: It is normal for the price of corn to decline when the market comes to the conclusion that the crop is going to get planted and off to a good start. Monday’s Crop Progress Report assured the market the corn crop is, in fact, off to a good start and remaining acres will easily be planted before the insurance date. Better yet, widespread rain in most of the Corn Belt on the newly planted corn was predicted and falling the past three days in many Corn Bel

Tidbits Biofuel: The U.S. House has passed the year-around E15 legislation. Now to the Senate, ​where it needs 60% of votes, and get a signature ​from President Donald Trump to be enacted. However, opinions are divided. Some experts believe that increased domestic corn consumption will help farmers who produce corn, while others believe the bill will increase fuel costs, further increasing expenses and pressure soybean producers. The U.S. PPI, producer prices index, soared 1.

Tidbits Corn, beans, and wheat were smartly lower for the second consecutive day yesterday primarily because crude oil was sharply lower. June futures contract was down as much as $13.61 and finished down $7.19. Lower crude prices mean lower gasoline and diesel prices, reducing the value of biofuel blending stock. However, lower fuel prices are good for the economy. A strong economy will increase demand for fuel and everything else, like livestock that eat feed and all the co

Tidbits The U.S. and Iran launched new attacks yesterday as they fought for control of the Strait of Hormuz. Several merchant ships in the Persian Gulf reported explosions or fires. The U.S. said it had destroyed six small Iranian military boats. Iran attacked and set ablaze a large U.S. military base and oil port in the United Arab Emirates. Crude oil futures were up $4.48 yesterday. U.S. and China tensions took a turn for the worse over the weekend as Bloomberg reported tha