BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits We liked yesterday’s corn action. Yes, it was up 8¢, but what we really liked is all the settlement prices were less than a cent from the high for the day. This is a technical indication of strength because the traders did not take profit after a very nice daily gain as they usually have done on the corn. El Niño  has become a topic of heavy discussion of late and for good reason. We have reported every Tuesday the weekly ENSO changes for about seven years. The past f

Tidbits Iran: The two week cease fire between Iran versus Israel and the U.S. is very fragile and most likely will collapse. Iran claims Israel has already broken the agreement. Many countries claim Iran has also broken the agreement. The Strait of Hormuz remained shut to vessels sailing without a permit and shippers said they needed more clarity before resuming transit. Marine Traffic data ⁠showed two Greek-owned and two Chinese-owned bulk carriers passed through the strait

Tidbits The agriculture futures  markets will be closed Friday, but banks, postal workers, and the government will be working. Futures markets will close at normal time today and open at normal time Easter Sunday. The CBOT prices were pressured yesterday by sharply lower crude oil and prospects for the U.S. to end its participation in persecuting the war against Iran. Corn and beans recovered nicely before the close, but wheat did not recover as badly needed rain is expected

Tidbits Iran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal and maintained attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab states, Reuters reported. Trump’s 15-point peace plan stipulated that the Islamic Republic dismantle its main nuclear facilities and use a reduced missile arsenal in self-defense only. Iran would get certain concessions in return, including sanctions relief. Iran wants guarantees that the U.S. and Israel will not resume attacks, alongside reparations for war damages and recognition

Tidbits The Federal Reserve  left the fed funds rate unchanged yesterday afternoon, as was expected. Flash sale: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of new crop soybean meal to unknown. Oil exports through Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port on ‌the Red Sea are projected to reach a high of 3.8 million barrels per day this month. Average loadings from that port rose to 2.6 million bpd so far in March, up from 1.4 ​million bpd in February and 1.3 million bpd in January.

Tidbits Crude Oil: Two tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were attacked within the territorial waters of Iraq last evening, causing both to catch fire in the Persian Gulf. A total of 25 crew members onboard the vessels have been evacuated so far by authorities in Iraq. Despite Donald Trump's statements, the U.S. refuses to escort civilian ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the high risk of attacks, Reuters reports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) approved yesterday

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 125,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Fed Reserve: Yesterday, President Trump submitted his nomination of the former Fed governor, Kevin Warsh, to the Senate as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve to replace Jerome Powell in May. Cattle & Hogs: The American Rancher Alliance reported yesterday that three-day-old bull calves are now selling for $2,200. That is quite a testament to the confidence some p

Tidbits Israel plans to make further trade concessions to the U.S. on food and agricultural goods. The Israeli government intends to scrap a tax-free quota and raise levies to 50% on wheat-feed imported from countries other than the U.S. starting in April, as Bloomberg reports. Officials hope that boosting the competitiveness of U.S. wheat against Israel’s traditional suppliers — the largest of them being Russia — will help clinch a deal to ease tariffs on goods shipped to th

Tidbits Today is the last trading day for March options. First notice day for March grain futures is next Friday, February 27. Be sure to exit or roll any long positions by the close on February 26 to avoid being involved in the delivery process. Iran rejected the U.S. nuclear deal proposal, which was presented during negotiations in Geneva this week, as the Wall Street Journal reports. Iran counter-offered "modest concessions on its nuclear program.” U.S. officials say that

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 230,560 mts of old crop corn to unknown. South America: Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazil soybean estimate unchanged at 179 million mts (USDA 180). He said there are now two concerns in Brazil - poor quality seed in parts of northern Mato Grosso and continued hot and dry conditions in southern Brazil, especially Rio Grande do Sul and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. Both of these situations as something th

Tidbits China  is considering buying more U.S.-farmed soybeans , President Donald Trump said after what he called "very positive" talks with President Xi Jinping yesterday. In a goodwill gesture two months before Trump's expected visit to Beijing, Trump said Xi would consider hiking soybean purchases from the United States to 20 million metric tons in the current season, up from 12 million mts previously. March soybean futures rallied to $11.15 yesterday, but settled at $10.9

Tidbits Futures: March soybeans, and all three March wheat contracts made new highs for the year yesterday and March corn traded to its highest price since before the USDA S&D on 12 January, despite the dollar index being a little higher yesterday for the second day in the past 8 days. Prices were supported by higher crude oil, cold temperatures (more soybean meal and corn for feed demand, fewer farmer sales, potential winter kill on wheat), expected strong export sales today

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 192,350 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown. Biofuel: Republican U.S. lawmakers plan to create a task force to study potential year-round sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline blends in the U.S., after an attempt to pass such legislation in a funding bill this week fell through. Farm groups and Midwest ethanol advocates blasted the decision to form a task force instead of passing legislation, calling it a blo

Tidbits Ag Futures will not trade Sunday night to Monday afternoon morning due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Grain futures will reopen Monday evening at normal times. Exports: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to South Korea and 334,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. Chinese customs data showed they imported 8.044 million mts of beans from all sources in December 2025, up 1.2% from December 2024. Total imports in 2025 at 111.8

Tidbits On Monday at 11 AM Central Time, the USDA will issue its revised estimates for domestic and world Supply and Demand (S&D), the final 2025 U.S. crop production and yield numbers, the Quarterly Stocks (inventory) of commodities as of 1 December 2025, Winter Wheat and Canola seedings, and Cotton Ginnings. The January USDA reports are one of the top three major report days of every year for grain producers and users. The market action of March futures for the day of & the

Tidbits The CBOT  ag markets will have regular hours today, but no night session tonight and will reopen Friday morning at 8:30 AM Central with a regular closing time. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop beans to China and 231,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown. AgrInvest Commodities’ Eduardo Vanin yesterday morning: “China booked a few U.S. (soybean)  cargoes yesterday. The total is close to 140 cargoes, ~80% of the 12 mil

Tidbits Technically, March corn is looking good after testing its 100 day moving average the past three days and then settled up 4¢ yesterday. March beans traded 6¢ higher early yesterday, then 7¢ lower later before settling down 2¾¢, about 10¢ below its 100 day moving average and a little below the bottom of the gap from 27 October. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 21.36 is quite supportive. Fundamentally, the market is talking about Brazil’s “bigger than ever” bean crop

Tidbits Interest Rate: Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 3 to lower the benchmark Fed Funds rate by a quarter point to a new target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. One vote was to lower the policy rate by half percent, while two votes supported no change. Post meeting comments included that the Federal Reserve will buy $40 billion worth of U.S. treasury bills over the next 30 days to put more money in circulation; the Fed expects one rate cut in 2026 and

Tidbits U.S. crude oil stocks including the SPR rose by 800,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 28, following a 3.3 million-barrel build the prior week. It was up 0.1% from the prior week and 2.9% year over year, and remained about 3% below the five-year seasonal average. Imports from Mexico dropped by 431,000 bpd to a weekly record low of 131,000 bpd in the week. Venezuela’s oil exports averaged about 921,000 bpd in November, the year’s third-highest monthly level. Overall ex

Tidbits China bought  at least ten more shiploads of U.S. soybeans (~650,000 mts) on Tuesday according to multiple sources within the grain export trade. Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities: China continues buying soybeans from the U.S. Purchases have reached 67 cargoes, ~35% of the program. These purchases make no economic sense — they are political purchases. The losses on these soybeans for crush are enormous, which leads the market to think: regardless of price, the st