Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Markets: November soybean futures lost nearly 30¢ and corn lost 9¢ Wednesday as some weather forecasts indicated rain relief for the Western Corn Belt with widespread rains into the early part of next week, with heaviest amounts seen for Iowa, Southern Minnesota and Northern Illinois. Those areas could see 1.25 inches to over 2 inches by Tuesday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Frankly, we cannot find a NWS five-day outlook with that prediction.

Tidbits The first case of Southern Rust in Iowa this season was confirmed Tuesday morning in a Benton County corn field, according to Iowa State University Extension. The Wheat Quality Council's spring wheat tour estimated North Dakota's spring crop at 45.9 bushels per acre, down from 49.8 last year. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 2 million barrels in the week ended July 17, compared with market expectations for a 1.25 million-barrel draw. National gasoline stocks rose by

Tidbits The NOPA soybean crush in June was 214.34 million bushels of soybeans, up 2.7% from May and up 15.7% from a year ago. It exceeded trade expectations as the daily pace of processing rebounded from an eight-month low posted in May to the strongest level in three months. You can learn about the NOPA via the link: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/about-the-nopa The USDA is now accepting applications for its Agribusiness Trade Mission to Vietnam on November 9-12. Vie

Tidbits Some analysts said the sharply higher crude oil was why CBOT prices were smartly lower yesterday while other analysts said it was the belt of scattered showers from Kansas to Minnesota with more in the forecast for today and tomorrow. We will side with the rain for the lower prices. When it is July and rain is falling on Iowa, corn and beans will be down. Some weakness is caused every month by the fear of the USDA monthly S&D, which will be released tomorrow at 11 AM

Tidbits Acres: Matt Bennet of Agmarket.net expects actual planted corn acres to be less than the March Intentions due to high fertilizer prices, supply challenges, and excessive moisture across regions of the United States. However, the firm says rallying corn prices during the spring kept the reduction from being more significant. Bennett says any acres lost in corn most likely shifted directly to soybeans. The firm believes combined corn and soybean acres are at 180.2 milli

Tidbits The U.S. and Iran released the text of an interim agreement their presidents have signed to end their war on Wednesday, with the U.S. President threatening to resume attacks and kill Iranian officials if they failed to honour their ​commitments. Iran's leaders did not address the new threats. The memorandum of understanding stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, with Iran agreeing to allow “safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only,

Tidbits June S&D: At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its June S&D. It most likely will have very little impact on the markets. It is too early for USDA to change yields or acres for corn and beans. Wheat production could be interesting, but wheat harvest is just getting a good start. The demand side could see an increase in corn exports, a decrease in soybean exports with an increase in soybean crush. Will USDA reduce or increase the size of Brazil’s safrinha co

Tidbits New ‌World screwworm ​has been found and confirmed in a ​calf ​in Texas, the ‌USDA said ​on ​Wednesday ⁠evening, exposing ​the ​nation's ⁠cattle herd to ⁠a ​serious ​new threat. That screw worm contributed to yesterday’s late weakness in corn. The U.S. typically imports over a million cattle from Mexico every year. The import suspension contributed to rising beef prices by tightening the supply of beef cattle. An expansive U.S. outbreak would further tighten the suppl

Tidbits National Weather Service 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecasts predict much above normal temperatures with normal rainfall for the northern half of the U.S., as of last evening. China expects El Niño weather effects to peak in autumn and winter this year, before weakening in spring next year. Iran: A tentative 60-day ‘memorandum of understanding’ has been reached to extend the ceasefire and initiate nuclear negotiations with Iran, pending approval from President Trump. U.

Tidbits Market Comment: It is normal for the price of corn to decline when the market comes to the conclusion that the crop is going to get planted and off to a good start. Monday’s Crop Progress Report assured the market the corn crop is, in fact, off to a good start and remaining acres will easily be planted before the insurance date. Better yet, widespread rain in most of the Corn Belt on the newly planted corn was predicted and falling the past three days in many Corn Bel

Tidbits Biofuel: The U.S. House has passed the year-around E15 legislation. Now to the Senate, ​where it needs 60% of votes, and get a signature ​from President Donald Trump to be enacted. However, opinions are divided. Some experts believe that increased domestic corn consumption will help farmers who produce corn, while others believe the bill will increase fuel costs, further increasing expenses and pressure soybean producers. The U.S. PPI, producer prices index, soared 1.

Tidbits Corn, beans, and wheat were smartly lower for the second consecutive day yesterday primarily because crude oil was sharply lower. June futures contract was down as much as $13.61 and finished down $7.19. Lower crude prices mean lower gasoline and diesel prices, reducing the value of biofuel blending stock. However, lower fuel prices are good for the economy. A strong economy will increase demand for fuel and everything else, like livestock that eat feed and all the co

Tidbits The Federal Reserve voted 8 to 4 to hold the target interest rate at 3.5-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, as expected. Energy markets are sharply higher today amid stalled Iranian peace talks and renewed threats of further military action. Crude oil has risen significantly, and soybean oil follows. U.S. crude inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels the past week, while the market expected it to be almost steady. Crude oil production rose a bit, while imports d

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 130,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Crops Survey: The USDA plans to survey more farmers for some of its key U.S. crop reports ​following a drop in the response rate for its March 31 plantings report, being at 37.6%, down ​from 44.3% last year and the lowest on record for that survey. The USDA faced criticism over the reliability of its data ​after making unprecedented increases in January to corn acrea

Tidbits We liked yesterday’s corn action. Yes, it was up 8¢, but what we really liked is all the settlement prices were less than a cent from the high for the day. This is a technical indication of strength because the traders did not take profit after a very nice daily gain as they usually have done on the corn. El Niño has become a topic of heavy discussion of late and for good reason. We have reported every Tuesday the weekly ENSO changes for about seven years. The past fo

Tidbits Iran: The two week cease fire between Iran versus Israel and the U.S. is very fragile and most likely will collapse. Iran claims Israel has already broken the agreement. Many countries claim Iran has also broken the agreement. The Strait of Hormuz remained shut to vessels sailing without a permit and shippers said they needed more clarity before resuming transit. Marine Traffic data ⁠showed two Greek-owned and two Chinese-owned bulk carriers passed through the strait

Tidbits The agriculture futures markets will be closed Friday, but banks, postal workers, and the government will be working. Futures markets will close at normal time today and open at normal time Easter Sunday. The CBOT prices were pressured yesterday by sharply lower crude oil and prospects for the U.S. to end its participation in persecuting the war against Iran. Corn and beans recovered nicely before the close, but wheat did not recover as badly needed rain is expected i

Tidbits Iran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal and maintained attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab states, Reuters reported. Trump’s 15-point peace plan stipulated that the Islamic Republic dismantle its main nuclear facilities and use a reduced missile arsenal in self-defense only. Iran would get certain concessions in return, including sanctions relief. Iran wants guarantees that the U.S. and Israel will not resume attacks, alongside reparations for war damages and recognition

Tidbits The Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged yesterday afternoon, as was expected. Flash sale: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of new crop soybean meal to unknown. Oil exports through Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port on ‌the Red Sea are projected to reach a high of 3.8 million barrels per day this month. Average loadings from that port rose to 2.6 million bpd so far in March, up from 1.4 ​million bpd in February and 1.3 million bpd in January.

Tidbits Crude Oil: Two tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were attacked within the territorial waters of Iraq last evening, causing both to catch fire in the Persian Gulf. A total of 25 crew members onboard the vessels have been evacuated so far by authorities in Iraq. Despite Donald Trump's statements, the U.S. refuses to escort civilian ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the high risk of attacks, Reuters reports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) approved yesterday