Tidbits, Rain & Market Supports, Crude Oil, US PMI, Crop Insurance, Broilers & Ethanol 8/6/26

Tidbits

Showers in the southern half of Iowa and northern Missouri, with additional scattered rains across Nebraska and Kansas, pressured corn and beans yesterday. Technical support at the 50 day moving price average for corn and the 100 day moving average for beans held, which is a significant bullish indication given the amount of rain that has fallen this week and expected into next week. Rain is the whole story this week despite the corn crop rating losing 6 percentage points out of the top two rating categories the past two Mondays.

Chase Koopmans of the Grain Ledger sums it best:

“Multi-inch totals crossed Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois overnight, with more due across the central and eastern belt over the next week, landing right at the ideal time for soybean pod fill, and after corn pollination is mostly done. The extended maps stay wet in the eastern belt through mid-August. When the crop is getting watered at the moment it’s setting yield, the market sees little reason to carry weather premium, and it’s been steadily pulling it out.

Then there’s the yield survey hanging over corn. StoneX — a private firm whose customer survey has tracked the final crop closely for decades — pegged corn at 184.8 bushels per acre, above USDA’s 183.0, on a 16.16-billion-bushel crop. Here’s a nuance worth understanding, because it explains why the market stays heavy: the big funds don’t even trade the USDA number. They trade their own models, built off satellite greenness and crop-condition data — and those models sit even higher than StoneX. So, the money is positioned for a big crop, and that positioning is a weight all its own.

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