BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Weather  for the next six days predict Missouri, southern areas of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana will get the most rain, as much as 3 to 4 inches (76 to 102 mm). Wind gusts over the major hard wheat production regions are expected to blow over 50 mph in the next ten days.    StoneX’s fertilizer  guy, Josh Linville: "Phosphate values are incredibly high priced with few signs it will soften. NOLA DAP is @ $680."   The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI

Tidbits Soybeans traded sharply lower yesterday because bean oil traded down the 3¢ per pound daily limit yesterday morning. That was because EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said late Wednesday that setting the biofuel mandates for 2026 can be expected in the coming months, which was much later than the market expected. The real bean oil hammer were rumors reported by news wire services that the required Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) levels in 2026 will be 4.65 billion gallo

Highlights March CBOT options expire today which usually means lower prices. The expected hot weather in Argentina this weekend sent soybeans higher yesterday, but not so much the corn. We think the faint rumors from the New York Times of a Trump trade deal with China boosted soybeans more than weather. Due to high prices, India cancelled the purchase of 70,000 mts of Malaysian palm oil which had been scheduled for delivery March through June. Sunflower oil futures rose above

Highlights Crude oil  futures lost a dollar Thursday morning and closed about 40¢ lower after President Donald Trump repeated a pledge to raise U.S. oil production to lower energy costs. That statement unnerved traders despite Trump also said sanctions would be enforced and new sanctions applied that would eventually drop Iran’s crude oil exports to zero. Iran exported about 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024, up from 1.4 in 2023 and 900,000 barrels per day in 2022. With cru

Ag market futures will resume trading at normal time this evening. Crude oil began trading as its usual time last evening, namely 5 PM Central, and will trade today until its normal close at 4 PM Central.   Wayne Bacon is traveling, so there will be no world FOB grain price and ocean freight rate report this week. Tidbits Much of Argentina’s crop areas received between three and four tenths (~10 mm) on Saturday.     Sunday morning weather update for crop areas of Argentina: "

Highlights The Equatorial Pacific Surface Water temperature has dropped a half °C the past two reporting weeks and is now 1° below normal. That is why it is turning dry in Argentina and Southern Brazil and so very wet in Northern Brazil where 85% of their beans are grown. That much rain is great for the beans in that sandy soil until they are mature. As you know, soybeans cannot be harvested when the stems are wet or even damp. Harvest will be delayed and the quality of the b

Highlights Trump’s newly appointed counterterrorism adviser, Sebastian Gorka, says Trump plans to end the Ukraine war by threatening to flood Ukraine with military aid, making current U.S. support look like “peanuts.”    Andrey Sizov, the guru of Black Sea wheat market, reported yesterday afternoon that Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, is gradually running out of inventory. "Russian total on-farm stocks: Lowest in three years, but still above average. Southern regi

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 198,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown.    The USDA forecasts net farm income to reach $116 billion in 2024, 15% above the 10-year average, but lawmakers argue this masks the struggles of individual producers, particularly row crop farmers. There are increasing calls for federal aid. Ag bankers report a 40% increase in new operating loans and signs of growing debt distress, particularly in the central Plains and Midw

Tidbits Weekly Export Inspections will be released today at 10:00 a.m. CDT. Crop Progress and Conditions will be released after the close on Tuesday.   Yesterday morning, Cargill’s crush plant at Sidney, Ohio sent a text to farmers stating they were paying $10.50 for beans in November. Their website quote at the same time was 3 under the January, at $10.30. Early this morning, their website still was 3 under the January futures.   As on Friday China announced a $1.4 trillion

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 21,000 mts of old crop soybean oil to Mexico 125,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 292,800 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown Taiwan purchased 78,200 mts of US wheat in a tender on Thursday.   How does this Wednesday’s export sale of 1.995 million mts of corn match-up with the ten biggest corn sale days in US history:

Highlights The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report highlights: U.S. ethanol production was up; market expected it to be down U.S. ethanol stocks were way down; market expected moderate decline to up a little U.S. gasoline demand was 6.4% stronger than the four-week average   Karen Braun shared a summary: USA exported a record volume of ethanol over the last year (Sep 2023-Aug 2024), some 30% above the recent five-year average. USA's 2024 imports of anim

Highlights The river gauge at Memphis will restrict barge drafts by October 13th if no rain comes this week. Weather Monday night poured down rain in Western Pennsylvania.   Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 166,000 mts of old crop (2024) soybeans to China.     Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean numbers unchanged. He has corn at 15.09 billion bushels with a yield forecast of 182.5 bushels (USDA 15.186 & 183.6) and his soybean numbers at 4.44

Tidbits The Spec funds and the Index funds were net buyers of corn, soybeans and all three classes of wheat on the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) released Friday afternoon for the reporting week ending last Tuesday.   End of the week profit-taking on long positions had everything weaker Thursday and Friday plus and pre-hedging pressure on the corn and beans. The increased rain in the forecast for Brazil also pressured beans to an extent, but rain does not mean more Brazil

Highlights The International Grains Council (IGC) predicts record large global grain production and record large global consumption for the 2024-25 marketing year. More importantly, world carryovers (aka ending stocks) are projected at a 10-year low.   IGC’s report on Wednesday listed total grains (wheat and coarse grains) output at 2.315 billion mts and consumption at 2.325 billion mts with the carryover down to 581 million mts, the lowest since 2014-15.   The records are fo

Highlights It is unusual that no rain has fallen nor predicted by the middle of September for Rondonópolis, an area in Brazil's top grain producing state of Mato Grosso in the heart of its prime soybean and corn area. Rain has fallen the past few days in the far north and west areas of Mato Grosso.     We report daily the number of days rain is expected in the ten day forecast for Rondonópolis, which normally receives sporadic showers 10 to 14 days before the rainy season beg

Highlights The U.S. Gulf Coast is bracing for the tropical storm Francine. It is expected to become a category 2 hurricane and make landfall in Louisiana this evening according to the National Hurricane Center. Crude oil, natural gas facilities, and barge loading/unloading operations have been scaling back and evacuating some sites.   Francine's track is expected to move up the Mississippi River into Southern Illinois. As it heads north, the winds will slow down to mid-40 mph

Highlights Cease-fire negotiations for the Israel-Hamas war are set to begin today in Cairo. Israel has accepted a “bridging” agreement (a short-term contract) that would allow the two sides to hammer out the details of a cease-fire. Hamas has consistently demanded Israel withdraw its military forces from Gaza before any negotiations can begin.     On Friday, the U.S. Treasury and the State Departments sanctioned nearly 400 individuals and entities supporting Russian war effo

Highlights NOPA members crushed 182.881 million bushels of soybean in July, which was 442,400 bushels more than the market expected. That was 5.5% more than last year’s record large July crush. Better yet, oil stocks were 1.499 billion pounds, which was 109 million fewer pounds than the market expected.   Soybean oil and meal basis in Brazil is sharply higher this week. The resulting improving crush margins for the beans makes Brazil’s small bean supplies for export smaller y

Highlights The grain industry has been bad-mouthing China’s economic outlook which the grain industry says will greatly reduce China’s demand for grain and everything else. Yet economic data the past month has all been better than the market expected. This morning, we got the purchasing managers index (PMI), which is a forward looking economic indicator. A PMI above 50 means the economy will expand in the coming month.   The manufacturing PMI was expected to be 49.3, down fro

Highlights August options expire this Friday. All July basis contracts and long July CBOT futures positions must be rolled or priced no later than close of business July 30th, a week from today. The weather forecast for Canada and the Corn Belt has changed to much warmer and drier. Yesterday morning Wright on the Market reported that the number of rain days in the ten-day forecast for the Western Corn Belt had 12 fewer days of rain than Sunday morning and the Eastern Corn Bel