BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

S&D Highlights Corn:  On yesterday’s S&D, corn received the strongest boost as exports increased by 125 million bushels and the carryover was reduced by the same amount to 2,029 million bushels, a 45 day supply, down 4 days from last month and well below market expectations. As is normal for December, there were no production changes on this S&D. World corn carryout was reduced by 86 million bushels, but the days’ use needle was not moved and is still at 79 days compared to 8

The numbers were overall a non-event: Friendly for corn Supportive for soybeans  Neutral wheat   CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Mar corn +3 Jan beans -7 July CBOT wheat -2 July KC wheat -2 Sept Spring wheat +1    The 2024-25 numbers are meaningless as that marketing year ended three months ago!

Tidbits December S&D  will be released by the USDA today at 10 AM Mountain Time. In past years, the USDA never changed the yields on the December report, but some analysts expect there may be a yield adjustment this year because of the government shutdown. We doubt it, but it would be logical to have an adjustment since we did not get one in October. Farm aid: USDA announced that $11 billion of “bridge money” will be paid to farmers no later than 28 February 2026 and farmers

Сurrency & Prices We mentioned on Saturday that the Brazilian currency was sharply lower on Friday, making Brazil’s products cheaper to buy for foreign buyers compared to U.S. products. Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag reported Brazil’s currency lost 2.3% versus the dollar on Friday. Despite CBOT January soybeans settling 14¼¢ lower on Friday, Brazil’s soybeans gained about 11¢. Here is the math:   If soybeans were $11 a bushel in the U.S. on Friday and the exchange rate of Brazil’

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 47,955, +239 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $60.14, +1.66. Dollar Index  settled at 98.99, -0.49. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 2,727, +167. Corn March futures settled at $4.44¾, -3¢ for the we

Tidbits Carryover, aka carryout, is the amount of old crop grain or oilseed that was not used during the marketing year. The job of the market is to make sure we never run out of food or fiber during every marketing year. When necessary, the market rations all commodities by raising the price so users will use less.     USDA reports the carryovers in terms of millions of bushels for the domestic Supply and Demand (S&D) and in terms of million metric tons (mts) for the world S

Tidbits USDA Secretary  Brooke Rollins announced major updates to federal crop insurance to:  Reduce red tape Modernizing long-standing policies Expand access to critical risk protection She said for every new regulation added, there were 48 regulations eliminated. You can read an AI summary  on our website or the whole document  in the Federal Registry.   Crude oil  closed at a 16 day high yesterday supported by decreased probability of an end to the Russia and Ukraine war.

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 100,800 mts of old crop corn to Colombia and 392,500 mts of old crop corn to Mexico. Crude oil  jumped 80¢ higher yesterday mid-day when it was revealed that President Putin said he is not going to give-up real estate gains his military has occupied in Ukraine. Russia currently controls 19.2% of Ukraine, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. Vladimir Putin visited India for the first time in four year

Tidbits U.S. crude oil stocks including the SPR rose by 800,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 28, following a 3.3 million-barrel build the prior week. It was up 0.1% from the prior week and 2.9% year over year, and remained about 3% below the five-year seasonal average. Imports from Mexico dropped by 431,000 bpd to a weekly record low of 131,000 bpd in the week. Venezuela’s oil exports averaged about 921,000 bpd in November, the year’s third-highest monthly level. Overall ex

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, cha

Tidbits Farm Aid: U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Trump administration will unveil a “bridge payment” for farmers next week to provide short-term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized, amid pressure from farm groups and Republican lawmakers. The administration faces calls for more immediate funds for the next planting season, while expanding some farm supports in the latest spending bill. Overall, the U.S. government is expected to spend

Tidbits OPEC+  agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 at its meetings on Sunday as the group slows down its push to regain market share amid fears of a looming supply glut. The U.S. Manufacturing  PMI by S&P showed continued expansion in November, with a reading of 52.2, from 52.5 in October and well above 50, indicating sector growth for a fourth consecutive month; the index suggests slow improvement in operating conditions, driven by a str

Tidbits Ukraine:  U.S. Sec. of State Rubio led U.S. negotiations with Ukrainian officials in Florida yesterday. Both sides said the talks were productive about a peace deal with Russia with Rubio expressing optimism about the progress. Rubio said the aim is to create a pathway that leaves Ukraine sovereign and independent.   Venezuela:  Yesterday, Venezuela's President Maduro was requesting a conversation with President Trump according to multiple news sources. Sunday evening

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 47,716, +1,471 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $58.48, +0.50. Dollar Index  settled at 99.48, -0.72. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 2,560, +285. Corn December futures settled at $4.47¾, +10¼¢ for

Tidbits President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela  should be considered "closed in its entirety." He gave no further details as the U.S. ramps up pressure on President Nicolas Maduro's government.   Ukrainian  President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said yesterday that a delegation headed by security council secretary Rustem Umerov was on its way to the U.S. to continue talks on an agreement to end the war with Russia. Umerov has been put

Tidbits Ukraine’s  President Zelensky's powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, who has headed Ukraine's peace negotiation team, quit yesterday, hours after anti-corruption agents raided and searched his home. A wide-spread probe into high-level corruption has sparked public outrage and thrust its leadership into crisis as Trump increases the pressure on Zelensky to reach a settlement.   Crude oil: Two Russian shadow fleet tankers were struck, and likely destroyed, north of t

Tidbits CBOT Monday deliveries  to be assigned today: Corn   80 to 30 June 2025 bullish Meal 199 to 24 Nov 2025 negative Oil   447 to 20 Nov 2025    negative Oats 120 to 13 Nov 2025    bearish Wheat SRW    0 to 18 Mar 2025 bullish HRW   2 to 11 June 2025 bullish HRS  34 to 24 Nov 2025 friendly WTI: Managed money trades (big specs and index funds) were net short West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures in early October for the first time since 2008. Over the last 12 yea

Tidbits China bought  at least ten more shiploads of U.S. soybeans (~650,000 mts) on Tuesday according to multiple sources within the grain export trade. Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities: China continues buying soybeans from the U.S. Purchases have reached 67 cargoes, ~35% of the program. These purchases make no economic sense — they are political purchases. The losses on these soybeans for crush are enormous, which leads the market to think: regardless of price, the st

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, cha

Tidbits Peace Talks: U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll held previously unannounced talks late Monday and all day Tuesday with Russian officials in Abu Dhabi as part of an intense new push by President Trump to end the war in Ukraine. Initial reports Tuesday morning were things were going just peachy, but when presented to Ukraine’s officials, who arrived in Abu Dhabi late Tuesday, it was immediately rejected. A group of European countries supporting Ukraine, which is known as