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Tidbits & Rain Days, Russia-Ukraine, Export Inspections 02/15/2022

Yesterday afternoon US officials told CBS News satellite images show Russian troops are leaving assembly points and moving to attack positions as more reinforcements are arriving near Ukraine every day. Northern Fleet's Marshal Ustinov and Admiral Kasatonov ships will arrive today.

The US is moving its embassy operations from Kiev to far West Ukraine city of Lviv.

The Canadian government has authorized financial institutions "to temporarily cease providing financial services and review their relationships with anyone involved in the blockade. If your truck is being used in these illegal blockades, your corporate accounts will be frozen, the insurance on your vehicle will be suspended."

China sold 520,000 mts of wheat from state reserves, which was 99% of the total offered (bullish that they sold that much). The average price was US$407 per mt ($11.07 per bushel). China has sold a total of just under 2.9 million mt from state reserves since auctions began in late October. China grows about 100 million mt of wheat per year and still imports 5 to 10 million mts every year.

Coca cola will no longer use corn syrup in their sodas. They say is was simply a matter of price; cane sugar is cheaper.

Russia's winter weather has been very favorable for wheat so far.

The USDA reported a bird flu case at a commercial chicken farm in Kentucky, after previously finding cases in Virginia and Indiana.

Patria Agronegocios slashed their Brazil soybean estimate by 14.24 million mt to 122 million. Conab Thursday was at 125.4 and USDA was 134 million last Wednesday.

NOPA crush report for January will be released at 11 AM CT today. The market expects 186.7 million bushels, 300,000 more than December and 2 million bushels more than a year ago.

Yesterday’s Weekly Inspections for Export were more than expected for corn and strong for soybeans this time of year, but within the range of expectations.

Tech Guy’s Comments:

As anticipated, March soybeans found strong buying below $15.61 yesterday ($15.51½ low, $15.70 settlement). We are looking for a test of last Thursday's high - $16.33.

The wide swinging higher highs and higher lows in wheat is bullish. March wheat support is at $7.78 with upside resistance and breakout at $8.39.

March corn support at $6.37 with upside breakout/resistance at $6.63.

Support levels are where strong buyers wait for the market to come to their orders and where plentiful sell stop orders lie below.

Bull markets build energy while consolidating, expend energy during trends. Bovine bulls eat & sleep while consolidating, expend energy during the work.

The gold and crude oil triangle upside breakouts are bullish for all hard commodities; CBOT wheat "walking up hill" to $9.32.

See charts below.


Market Data

This morning: Crude oil is at $94.67, down 0.79 The dollar index is at 96.19, down 0.18 March palm oil is at 5936 MYR, up 119. The contract high was made today, at 5,941 MYR. Palm oil owns 32% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share. March cotton is at $122.75, down 0.18. The contract high was made February, 1st at $129.37 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres. March natural gas is at $4.346, up 0.151. The contract high was $6.132 at October, 6th, 2021. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer. March ULSD is at $2.9419 per gallon, down 0.0199. The contract high was made February, 14th at $2.9666.


Rain Days Update

Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso, in the heart of Brazil's most productive soybean area, received 0.3 inches of rain yesterday; 0.2 inches a year ago and 0.1 inches two years ago (one inch = 24.5 mm). Yesterday's high temperature was 87°F. Day time highs the next ten days will range from 84 to 89°F (100°F = 38°C). Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 94°F with 0 inches rain. Cordoba high temperature 95°F with 0 inches rain. Salto high temperature 97°F with 0 inches rain. Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 0.22 inches, 88 to 94°F. Cordoba 0.69 inches, 76 to 91°F. Salto 0.59 inches, 81 to 96°F. The Western Corn Belt has 2 more rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has 3 more rain days than yesterday.

Explanation of Rain Days

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