Highlights
We consider the biggest short-term bearish threat is another banking “crisis” to scare the markets. We put the risk of that happening at 50/50, but if that does happen, the sell-off will be short-lived and recovery will be more quickly than the sell off we suffered through three weeks ago.
Maybe we can take some comfort from the news Federal Reserve officials are expressing confidence they have nipped a potential financial crisis in the bud. Now they face a difficult judgment on whether the US economy is contracting and, if so, whether it is fast enough to lower inflation. This type of economic management is the same as a crop farmer restricting yields a bit so he does not have to pay so much income tax. Believe it or not, there are farmers who say they do that.
During April last year, May beans gained $1.70 and May corn gained 97¢ from the first trading day to the high later in April. Please take a long look at the following comparison to assess the current: