BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits China purchased earlier this week one Panamax load of 60,000 mts of soft white wheat and another 60,000 mts of spring wheat according to traders in the export business, as Reuters reported yesterday. Delivery will be in December. “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of an event” is a fancy way to say, “Buy the rumor and sell the fact.”  The rumor the past two weeks was China will buy U.S. wheat. That rumor had Soft Red Winter Wheat

Tidbits Tariffs & Trade:  President Trump announced yesterday that he will increase tariffs on Canada by 10% after he accused the provincial government of Ontario of producing an ad campaign that misrepresented former President Reagan’s speech on tariffs.   The ad campaign, which aired during the World Series games in Toronto Friday evening, Trump said was aimed to influence the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court hearing on his administration’s tariffs. Ontario Premier Doug Ford agr

Tidbits Tariffs: The Trump administration began easing tariff policies, making exceptions for goods that cannot be produced, mined, or grown in the USA. The list of exemptions includes gold, LEDs, chemicals, metals, and even aircraft parts. The tariff relief is related to an upcoming Supreme Court case that may declare some duties illegal. Now the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative will be able to independently approve tariff relief, which will speed up

Tidbits October CBOT agriculture options expire today. The September quarterly grain stocks report will be released next Tuesday, September 30. U.S. Defense  Secretary Pete Hegseth has summoned senior U.S. military officers from around the world to a meeting in Quantico, Virginia on Tuesday. It is not known why Hegseth has ordered top military brass to meet on such short notice, but the news rallied crude oil futures from 65¢ lower to 36¢ higher before settling down 1¢ yester

Tidbits Additional financial aid  to American farmers will soon be provided by the Trump administration as Agriculture Secretary Rollins said an announcement could come “perhaps in the next couple of weeks." The USDA  will lead a trade mission to Taipei, Taiwan , to expand trade opportunities for U.S. companies and boost U.S. agricultural exports. The mission takes place from September 29 to October 1 and includes 39 agribusinesses, trade organizations, and representatives fr

Tidbits Mexican Corn: The USDA attaché to Mexico sees their 2025/26 corn crop up 8% from last year at 25 million mts (USDA 24.8). Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 100,593 mts of 2025 crop corn and 22,354 mts of 2026 crop corn to Mexico. PMIs: Composite (Manufacturing & Services) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was reported for: USA at 53.6 vs 54.1 expected Europe at 51.2 vs 51.1 expected Great Britain at 51.0 vs 52.9 expected Australia at 52.1 vs 50.4 expect

Tidbits Barchart.com is one of the most popular charting services for every market (stocks, bonds, options, commodities, indexes, etc.). Barchart provides a lot of free information as well as many other services for a fee. Every business day, Barchart reports the conclusion of thirteen purely technical analysis systems to recommend if an investor should buy, sell, or hold a given investment item. The results are computer generated. Therefore, we conclude there is no human op

Tidbits Crop conditions in Argentina  continue to get worse. Soybeans are rated 28% poor condition vs. 21% last week and 14% a year ago. Corn is rated 20% poor vs. 14% last week and 6% a year ago. However, in their 2023 drought, 60% of the bean crop and 47% of the corn crop were in poor condition. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange announced cuts to estimated production for Argentina's 2024/25 soybean and corn crops by 1 million mts each to 49.6 million mts and 49 million mts,

Today is the day to liquidate long January futures positions to eliminate any chance of being assigned a delivery. Tidbits Several agricultural input suppliers in Argentina are struggling financially or have already filed bankruptcy. The problem was the input suppliers did not change their marketing and financing program when the conservative, cost-cutting President Javier Milei took office a year ago.   The crop input suppliers did not not expect inflation to be reduced, the

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 30,000 mts of old crop soybean oil and 35,000 mts of rice to South Korea.   Cargill began laying off employees across its operations on Tuesday in a drive to slash headcount by 5%. Cargill is facing a downturn in returns in cattle, grains and oilseeds businesses. In Minnesota, home to its headquarters, Cargill plans to terminate 475 employees. Cargill has more than 160,000 employees worldwide, and a spokesperson said al

Highlights The US stock markets took a thumping yesterday as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo both reported net interest income well below analysts’ estimates. JPMorgan interest income was less than the previous quarter for the first time in almost three years and its shares had the largest decline since 2020.   Two weeks ago, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reduced their Argentine corn production estimate by 2 mil. mts. Yesterday, BAGE whacked another 2.5 mil. mts, down to 49

Upcoming Reports CONAB is Brazil’s USDA and it will issue its monthly crop production report early Thursday morning followed by USDA’s at noon Eastern time. There are rumors in the market that CONAB's corn production numbers may be reduced much more than the market expects. Analysts say the USDA, on the other hand, is showing a “more optimistic scenario than reality” as Brazil has a very significant reduction of safrinha corn acres.   USDA's National Agricultural Statistical

Highlights Sunday evening, Andrey Sizov reported a top Russian grain exporter claims that all its shipments have been halted by the Russian government.   Asian shares were slightly higher this morning as investors hope US inflation will not derail the outlook for lower interest rates.    Thursday is the day the USDA will release its second most important data of the year. It is the Quarterly Grain Stocks (inventory) as of March 1st and its Planting Intentions Report.   Pro Fa

Highlights 247AG, after predicting Brazil’s weather the next 10 days, reports:   "Can it get worse? Most definitely. Just getting started. Safrinha crop will be off by at least 20%, if not 30% or more."   Corn futures in Brazil continue to rise, buoyed by the weather forecast for April.   The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) will increase the daily limit of vessels through the canal from 24 to 27 on March 18th. Three Panamax ships would hold 6.5 mil. bushels of corn.

Tidbits Angie Setzer has been in the cash grain industry for over 18 years. She has dedicated her career to learning the ins and outs of the cash grain business from both the commercial and the farmer side, working to marry the two, teaching farmers to manage grain as an elevator would.  She left the elevator business to launch Consus in 2021. Angie also writes for Barchart on Sundays. The first part of her article yesterday covers the bean market news for the past six months

First notice day for deliveries on March CBOT contracts is this Thursday, which is usually an up day for markets after (usually) a down day the previous day as all the holders of long positions in the March futures are liquidating to avoid being assigned bushels. Translation: Your futures broker and your merchandiser want you to price or roll all March long positions before the close tomorrow. Highlights More scuttlebutt Monday about the possibility of more corn exports to Ch

Highlights Argentina devalued its currency while everyone was asleep Wednesday morning, which is when a devaluation should be done. The Argentina Peso was devalued by 54%; now 801 pesos per US$. The market was afraid the devaluation would cause a lot of Argentine agriculture products to hit the international market. That could not happen. While Argentina does have a little wheat to sell, it has been importing corn and beans from Brazil for many months. Plus, export permits we

Highlights Benson-Quinn analysts reported yesterday morning: "North and Central Brazil caught 60% of the region. More scattered activity expected today. Then dry until next weekend. Feels like this region is turning the corner. Expect more rains in S Brazil (where it has been very wet the past two months), but it also sounds like some planting progress is being made." And this yesterday afternoon: "USA weekly corn export inspections (yesterday) were best since June at 1.16

Highlights Yesterday’s mid-day weather forecast went drier for Central Brazil for next week. This major crop area will receive rains through this Friday, but amounts will not be enough to end the drought as November rains are running about half of normal this week. The extended outlook keeps high pressure over the north while Southern Brazil remains too wet, delaying planting and destroying some of crops that did get planted.   Several wheat contracts made new lows yesterday

Tidbits Rain has fallen in many of the dry areas or Brazil’s crop area, but not as much as predicted a few days ago. Many areas expected heavy rains, but received sprinkles or none. No one expects the weather to return to a normal rainy season. Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso received half a mm of rain yesterday. Daytime high temperature was 106°F (41°C).   Brazil’s corn plus freight to Asia is more expensive than US corn plus freight shipped from the PNW. For soybeans, Brazil is s