BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Yesterday at 4:09 PM Eastern Daylight Time, President Trump announced: “Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Block

Tidbits We liked yesterday’s corn action. Yes, it was up 8¢, but what we really liked is all the settlement prices were less than a cent from the high for the day. This is a technical indication of strength because the traders did not take profit after a very nice daily gain as they usually have done on the corn. El Niño has become a topic of heavy discussion of late and for good reason. We have reported every Tuesday the weekly ENSO changes for about seven years. The past fo

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to South Korea. Annual U.S. retail inflation was reported at 2.8% in February, the same pace as in the previous month and matching expectations. Core annual inflation excluding food and energy was 3%, down from 3.1% in the prior month. Both remain well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 on the week ending April 4th, higher than was expected, t

Tidbits Markets & Premiums: Yesterday was a very disappointing day for grain futures as the sharply higher crude oil could only rally corn, wheat, and beans very modestly. Even though soybean oil settled sharply higher and May bean oil was up 1.86¢ a pound, May soybeans were down 5¢. May soybean meal was lower, but only $3 a ton. For a bushel of beans yesterday, the value of the 11½ pounds of oil per bushel increased 21.35¢ and the 48 pounds of meal per bushel decreased by 7.

Tidbits Soybeans & China: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview yesterday morning that the Sunday and Monday talks with China in Paris had been ‘very good,’ adding that the U.S. continues to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing. However, President Trump said his meeting with China’s President Xi planned to begin on 31 March may be postponed due to “logistical” problems. We take that to mean he is too busy with Iran and crude oil flow. The soybean market

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 230,560 mts of old crop corn to unknown. South America: Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazil soybean estimate unchanged at 179 million mts (USDA 180). He said there are now two concerns in Brazil - poor quality seed in parts of northern Mato Grosso and continued hot and dry conditions in southern Brazil, especially Rio Grande do Sul and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. Both of these situations as something th

Tidbits The CBOT ag markets will have regular hours today, but no night session tonight and will reopen Friday morning at 8:30 AM Central with a regular closing time. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop beans to China and 231,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown. AgrInvest Commodities’ Eduardo Vanin yesterday morning: “China booked a few U.S. (soybean) cargoes yesterday. The total is close to 140 cargoes, ~80% of the 12 milli

Tidbits China purchased earlier this week one Panamax load of 60,000 mts of soft white wheat and another 60,000 mts of spring wheat according to traders in the export business, as Reuters reported yesterday. Delivery will be in December. “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of an event” is a fancy way to say, “Buy the rumor and sell the fact.” The rumor the past two weeks was China will buy U.S. wheat. That rumor had Soft Red Winter Wheat

Tidbits Tariffs & Trade: President Trump announced yesterday that he will increase tariffs on Canada by 10% after he accused the provincial government of Ontario of producing an ad campaign that misrepresented former President Reagan’s speech on tariffs. The ad campaign, which aired during the World Series games in Toronto Friday evening, Trump said was aimed to influence the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court hearing on his administration’s tariffs. Ontario Premier Doug Ford agre

Tidbits Tariffs: The Trump administration began easing tariff policies, making exceptions for goods that cannot be produced, mined, or grown in the USA. The list of exemptions includes gold, LEDs, chemicals, metals, and even aircraft parts. The tariff relief is related to an upcoming Supreme Court case that may declare some duties illegal. Now the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative will be able to independently approve tariff relief, which will speed up

Tidbits October CBOT agriculture options expire today. The September quarterly grain stocks report will be released next Tuesday, September 30. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has summoned senior U.S. military officers from around the world to a meeting in Quantico, Virginia on Tuesday. It is not known why Hegseth has ordered top military brass to meet on such short notice, but the news rallied crude oil futures from 65¢ lower to 36¢ higher before settling down 1¢ yesterd

Tidbits Additional financial aid to American farmers will soon be provided by the Trump administration as Agriculture Secretary Rollins said an announcement could come “perhaps in the next couple of weeks." The USDA will lead a trade mission to Taipei, Taiwan, to expand trade opportunities for U.S. companies and boost U.S. agricultural exports. The mission takes place from September 29 to October 1 and includes 39 agribusinesses, trade organizations, and representatives from

Tidbits Mexican Corn: The USDA attaché to Mexico sees their 2025/26 corn crop up 8% from last year at 25 million mts (USDA 24.8). Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 100,593 mts of 2025 crop corn and 22,354 mts of 2026 crop corn to Mexico. PMIs: Composite (Manufacturing & Services) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was reported for: USA at 53.6 vs 54.1 expected Europe at 51.2 vs 51.1 expected Great Britain at 51.0 vs 52.9 expected Australia at 52.1 vs 50.4 expect

Tidbits Barchart.com is one of the most popular charting services for every market (stocks, bonds, options, commodities, indexes, etc.). Barchart provides a lot of free information as well as many other services for a fee. Every business day, Barchart reports the conclusion of thirteen purely technical analysis systems to recommend if an investor should buy, sell, or hold a given investment item. The results are computer generated. Therefore, we conclude there is no human opi

Tidbits Crop conditions in Argentina continue to get worse. Soybeans are rated 28% poor condition vs. 21% last week and 14% a year ago. Corn is rated 20% poor vs. 14% last week and 6% a year ago. However, in their 2023 drought, 60% of the bean crop and 47% of the corn crop were in poor condition. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange announced cuts to estimated production for Argentina's 2024/25 soybean and corn crops by 1 million mts each to 49.6 million mts and 49 million mts, r

Today is the day to liquidate long January futures positions to eliminate any chance of being assigned a delivery. Tidbits Several agricultural input suppliers in Argentina are struggling financially or have already filed bankruptcy. The problem was the input suppliers did not change their marketing and financing program when the conservative, cost-cutting President Javier Milei took office a year ago. The crop input suppliers did not not expect inflation to be reduced, the

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 30,000 mts of old crop soybean oil and 35,000 mts of rice to South Korea. Cargill began laying off employees across its operations on Tuesday in a drive to slash headcount by 5%. Cargill is facing a downturn in returns in cattle, grains and oilseeds businesses. In Minnesota, home to its headquarters, Cargill plans to terminate 475 employees. Cargill has more than 160,000 employees worldwide, and a spokesperson said al

Highlights The US stock markets took a thumping yesterday as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo both reported net interest income well below analysts’ estimates. JPMorgan interest income was less than the previous quarter for the first time in almost three years and its shares had the largest decline since 2020. Two weeks ago, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reduced their Argentine corn production estimate by 2 mil. mts. Yesterday, BAGE whacked another 2.5 mil. mts, down to 49

Upcoming Reports CONAB is Brazil’s USDA and it will issue its monthly crop production report early Thursday morning followed by USDA’s at noon Eastern time. There are rumors in the market that CONAB's corn production numbers may be reduced much more than the market expects. Analysts say the USDA, on the other hand, is showing a “more optimistic scenario than reality” as Brazil has a very significant reduction of safrinha corn acres. USDA's National Agricultural Statistical

Highlights Sunday evening, Andrey Sizov reported a top Russian grain exporter claims that all its shipments have been halted by the Russian government. Asian shares were slightly higher this morning as investors hope US inflation will not derail the outlook for lower interest rates. Thursday is the day the USDA will release its second most important data of the year. It is the Quarterly Grain Stocks (inventory) as of March 1st and its Planting Intentions Report. Pro Fa