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Highlights, Broilers & Ethanol, Markets & Rain Days Update 9/9/22


The city of Chengdu, China has extended its COVID lockdown indefinitely. The city of 21 million people has been on lockdown since September 1. That is negative for crude oil and, therefore, corn and beans because cheaper crude oil means cheaper gasoline and diesel which means cheaper ethanol and biodiesel.

Avian influenza (HPAI) has been confirmed in Ohio. Three million laying hens will be euthanized. We knew we would get bird flu somewhere this winter, but we sure did not expect it this early in fall. Obviously, bird flu could get a lot worse very quickly as the colder weather arrives and wild birds transmit the virus. In the short run, 3 million layers means a lot of corn and meal not going to get consumed for a while.

OPEC+ is discussing further crude oil production cuts. The decision may be made this month stabilizing crude oil prices. JP Morgan, the OPEC banker, says the reduction will be 1 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The first decline in October will exceed 500,000 bpd. This will require a meeting of OPEC+ members in the next 14 days.

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