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Brazilian Grain, Export Inspections, Put Options, Markets & Rain Days Update 04/19/2022

Highlights


Now that the holiday is behind us, Reuters released more details about Friday’s NOPA report. March crush was 181.759 million bushels, a record for a March. Oil stocks were at 1.908 billion pounds, down 7.3% from February’s 22 month high. That is a lot of oil disappearance given a record high crush. MD Commodities is a world agricultural commodities & macroeconomics analysis firm. They announced Monday morning they estimate for Safrinha (Brazil’s second crop corn) has declined 8% to 10% from their previous estimate and 1st and 2nd crop production combined will drop about 5% to the 108-110 million mt range. However, note the record corn production for Brazil was 103 million mts in 2020 and 2019. Last year’s total corn production was 87 million mt as the Safrinha crop was planted 4 to 6 weeks later than normal and the latest corn died shortly after the dry season began. For those of you who pay attention to our Rain Days chart, you already knew Brazil's Safrinha crop has been hurting for several weeks as much less rain has been in the 10 day forecast the past seven days. Take a look at yesterday’s numbers we reported for these three locations in Safrinha country:

This reduced corn production propelled corn futures solidly above $8.00 for first time since 2012. The Crop Progress Report yesterday afternoon showed a 2% decline in the condition of the nation’s winter wheat crop; the market expected a 1% improvement. This year’s crop is rated 30% good to excellent compared to 53% a year ago. The corn crop is 4% planted, the market expected 5%; 6% is the average pace. Soybeans: 1% actual, 2% expected, 2% average pace Spring wheat: 8%, 9% expected, 9% normal pace Cotton: 10% planted, 9% average pace Sorghum: 17% planted, 12% average pace A farmer in Itaberaí, Goias, Brazil says his Safrinha crop is gone, too dry and the same across a large area. Goias grows about 3.4 million mt each of corn and beans. A farmer in south central Nebraska tried to set his bean planter yesterday, but the soil was so dry and hard, it would not go into the ground.

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