BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The USDA will issue its Quarterly Grain Inventory and Small Grains Reports at 10 AM Mountain Time today. The corn and bean inventory numbers will be the 2022 crop carryover and will indicate what demand will be into the end of the calendar year. The scuttlebutt is that China bought 500,000 to 1 million mts of corn from Ukraine over the past two weeks for October-December shipment. Roger expected China to buy a very large amount of corn no later than the first we

Marketing Comment The soybean meal and soybean oil marketing years end September 30. As always, there are shipments previously bought to be shipped this marketing year, but, for any one of hundreds of reasons, the actual shipments get delayed until after the end of the marketing year, making the shipment in the next marketing year. Yesterday’s Weekly Export Sales showed net cancellations for the current marketing year for meal and oil. Those who want lower prices are making

Market Comment The USDA will issue its September S&D today at 11:00 AM Central. This report will either make the low for the year on corn or will confirm the low has already been made (August 16th at $4.73½). Given the December to March spread has declined from 16 to 14¼¢ and the December to July spread has moved from 28½ to 26¼¢ the past two weeks indicates the low has already been made. The return to storage will always be at its greatest when the market is at the low. I

Highlights Informa’s updated US yield numbers have corn at 177.5 vs. 175.1 in August with production at 15.395 billion vs. 15.111 in August. Soybean yields at 51.0 vs. 50.9 in August and production at 4.214 billion vs. 4.205 in August. Cash export traders in Brazil received some questions from the Chinese about soybean export capacity for the November-January window. China is concerned the low water in the US river system and the Panama Canal will restrict US exports of corn

Highlights For the seventh consecutive day, the USDA announced yesterday 198,000 tons of beans were sold to the unknown. The weather still looks to be hot and dry across much of the Corn Belt through next weekend. As of this morning, we expect Tuesday’s USDA corn and bean crop conditions to lose 2 to 3% out of the top two categories, but after the weekend, we may be expecting 3 to 4 or even 5% decline. A few days after the August USDA Crop Report, FSA released its certifie

Basis Decision The cash price paid to farmers is a function of futures and basis. You need to separate the day you price them because the...

Highlights Russia attacked the two primary grain terminals of Ukraine for the fourth night in a row. The governor of Odessa said that two people were killed, 100 tons of dried peas and 20 tons of barley were destroyed. White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that Russia is currently placing sea mines at the entrances to Ukrainian ports and targeting civilian ships carrying food to and from the region. There are rumors that truckers in Br

We have seen first-hand several soybean fields in Illinois and Indiana with yellow spots, like one would see in early September as the beans start to turn. Ron from north-central Illinois sent us this link about yellowing soybeans, which looks more serious: https://brownfieldagnews.com/news/midwest-agronomists-tracking-down-the-cause-of-yellow-soybeans/ Highlights No news about the grain corridor deal. Corn Belt weather continues with a drier outlook into next week at least.

Highlights Tonight’s opening prices will probably be primarily influenced by news about the Ukraine Corridor Deal which expires at midnight Monday. Whether prices are higher or lower because of that news, do not be making any cash grain marketing decisions based on the Ukraine deal. Weather is far more important. La Niña and El Niño episodes can have a profound impact on world crop production. Some areas of the world see their weather turn warmer and drier while other areas

Mowery Auction Company is located about 2 hours south of Chicago. They do a big business in farm machinery from west of the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast. One of their driver’s told one of our Ohio clients that a “huge” area of Central Illinois has corn two feet tall and tasseling. What do you folks in Central Illinois say about that? Highlights Red Crown Rot Found in Illinois Soybeans; read about it at: https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/soybeans/red-crown-rot-reaches-ill

Highlights The percent of the nation’s corn crop in the good to excellent categories improved 1% this past week to 51% good or excellent. The soybean crop went the other way, losing 1% to be just 50% good or excellent. The market expected both crops to improve 1% in the top two categories. See all the commodities’ and state by state reports at: grainstats.com The total US soybean crush in May was 189 million bushels (5.58 million mts), 8 million more than in April and 2 mi

Highlights Today is the last business day of the week, the month and the quarter and there is only one business day (Monday) until the middle of next week. Throw-in the changing weather forecasts and the war in Eastern Europe, you better get a seat belt for your office chair. December corn settled yesterday below the gap made the first week of June on the daily chart. Technically, bad news if one wants corn to go higher. However, the settlement was 38¢ above the May low, so a

Market Comment & Clarification Roger apologizes for yesterday’s morning email sent discussing when to price your commodities. In no way was his intention to recommend you sell anything from a marketing standpoint. It was an effort to calm your nerves and it failed miserably. He is sorry. That email was intended to explain that pricing a commodity with your merchandiser does not need to be the end of the marketing of that commodity. In fact, pricing the commodity to your mer

Highlights Rainfall inches Monday to Sunday at Karen Braun’s CropWatch locations (25.4 mm per 1 inch): SD 3.5" E IA 2" IN 0.7" MN 0.65" NE 0.4" W IA 0.3" W IL 0.3" SE IL 0.25" And weekend rain totals reported to Wright on the Market: NE IL 0.8 Walton, IL 1.16 Peoria, IL zero Masonville, IA 1.0 Spencer, IA 1.1 Emmetsburg, IA 1.6 with hail McGregor, IA 0.9 Spencer, IA 0 Glidden, IA 0.34 Cornell, WI 0.68 Foley, MN 0.78 Jamestown, ND 2.41 Lake Preston, SD 1.38 St. Meinrad, South

Highlights Early Saturday, it was reported the Wagner Group had “captured” the city of Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia. A convoy of the rebel mercenaries were advancing north toward Moscow from the captured city as Putin vowed to crush the mutiny. At midday yesterday, it was announced the Wagner Group commander, Prigozhin, and Putin’s people had reached an agreement that the charge of treason against Prigozhin would be dropped and he was leaving Russia for Belarus, the co

Highlights July CBOT options expire today. The day before and the day options expire are usually down days for CBOT futures. President Biden at a west coast fundraiser called China’s President Xi a "dictator" Wednesday evening. Xi was not pleased one bit and he let the US Ambassador know that Biden’s comment was "political provocation." In hindsight, that added pressure to the soybeans yesterday on top of the biodiesel blending disappointment. Secretary of Treasury Janet Yel

Highlights It will be very hot this week in the crop areas of China with temperatures in Shandong and Hebei provinces expected to be over 104°F (40°C). Direct from the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website: "The sea surface temperature (SST) began rising in March 2023 and has exceeded the maximum values for the last 42 years here in June. The likelihood that 2023 will be: The hottest since 1850: 28% Top 10 hot years since 1850: 99% The reason is th

Highlights Yesterday’s mid-day GFS run showed a slightly wetter Delta and a slightly drier Argentina. Last evening’s GFS run predicted western Central Wisconsin into Minnesota will get 6 to 7 inches (15.5 to 18 cm) of rain by June 23rd. the far west of Kentucky and Tennessee will get 9 to 11 inches of rain. Central Illinois slated for 1 to 2.3 inches Temperatures in the majority of the US are expected to be normal to below normal for the next 10 days, with rain expected twic

"Good afternoon Roger, You haven't said much about USA weather lately. Here in southeast Iowa it feels more like June 30th than May 30th. No humidity at all this past Memorial Day weekend which is so odd for us. It's super dry here and hasn't rained in two weeks and nothing at all on the extended forecast. Yards are even starting to go dormant and turn brown already. Never seen it so dry this time of the year. The early crops look good but a lot of population issues in corn a

Highlights Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV (Chicago). He has been doing WGN weather for 45 years. Back in the day when the CBOT trading was done on the floor of the exchange building with about 4,500 people buying and selling commodities, there were TV sets for everybody to see. When Tom Skilling gave his mid-day weather update at 12:30 PM Central time on WGN, the floor went dead silent as soon as Tom’s face came on the TV screen and it stayed dead quiet until h