Tonight’s opening prices will probably be primarily influenced by news about the Ukraine Corridor Deal which expires at midnight Monday. Whether prices are higher or lower because of that news, do not be making any cash grain marketing decisions based on the Ukraine deal. Weather is far more important.
La Niña and El Niño episodes can have a profound impact on world crop production. Some areas of the world see their weather turn warmer and drier while other areas become cooler and wetter. Strong La Niña and El Niño episodes have a profound effect on your income, both better and worse. We are in the early months of a very strong El Niño episode, which has already reduced production and firmed prices of rice.
Rice is the number one food grain competitor of wheat. If wheat gets expensive, people eat rice. If rice gets expensive, people eat wheat. If both get expensive, people eat the cheapest and shift to lower quality food sources (rye, corn, buckwheat, oats, dried beans, etc).
India is the world's largest rice producer and exporter, supplying about 40% of the world’s rice exports. China is India’s biggest rice buyer, taking about one-fifth of India’s rice exports. China is also the world’s largest producer of wheat and El Niño has been giving their wheat, rice, and corn crops a rough go.