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Tidbits, Weather, ENSO, Export Inspections, Markets & Rain Days Update 9/12/23

Market Comment

The USDA will issue its September S&D today at 11:00 AM Central. This report will either make the low for the year on corn or will confirm the low has already been made (August 16th at $4.73½). Given the December to March spread has declined from 16 to 14¼¢ and the December to July spread has moved from 28½ to 26¼¢ the past two weeks indicates the low has already been made. The return to storage will always be at its greatest when the market is at the low.

If you are looking to re-own corn, buy a bearish report this afternoon, but do not buy a bullish report. If the report is bullish, wait for at least a 50% retracement before buying corn futures, probably later this week.



The nation’s corn conditions lost 1% out of the top two categories to 52%, exactly what the market expected. Corn is 34% mature, 6% ahead of normal.

Soybeans lost 1% to 52% good or excellent; the market expected a 2% decline. The percentage of the crop dropping leaves is 31% vs. 25% average.

The US winter wheat crop is 7% planted, on par with average for this date.

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