BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks on All Position Report as of 1 March and Intended Plantings Report.  From a grain market standpoint, this is the second most important report of the year. Only the June Quarterly Stocks and Actual Plantings Reports are more important than today’s reports.     Gary asked: "I am somewhat confused about the ADM corn survey you sent Sunday morning. Carryover down 198 (million bushels) from last yea

Highlights On Saturday, China announced tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products, retaliating against Canadian tariffs introduced in October. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect on 20 March and they match the 100% and 25% import duties Canada slapped on China-made electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum products. Canola was excluded from a China tariff, which was one of Canada's top exports to the world's top agricultural importer pri

Highlights Corn is pricing-in: The rain that fell in Argentina over the weekend and the heavy rains expected in the next 10 days. While those rains will save a lot of corn, it will not replace the lost yields. Even USDA reduced the Argentine corn production two weeks ago. Those bushels are not coming back. The anticipation of a big increase in 2025 corn acres from the USDA’s Outlook Forum on Thursday. Everyone has been talking about big 2025 corn acres for months. The expecta

Tidbits Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate  one million mts to 171 million due to  “surprising harvest progress in central Brazil last week and the anticipation of another good harvest week this week.”   Alê Delara is an agronomist and farmer in the Brazilian state of Paraná in Southern Brazil. Yesterday he said, “Here come the beans! We will probably have the highest productivity here on the farm since we started with soybeans.”   Kory Melby is

Tidbits Agriculture futures markets will not trade until tomorrow evening at normal times. Crude oil will trade normal hours this evening...

Tidbits Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag stated Sunday the Biden Administration Friday afternoon said imported used cooking oil will not qualify for tax credits under 45Z. In conclusion, she said, “Theoretically clearing the way for more soybean oil demand.”   We hope she is correct, but we did not see it that clearly. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) issued this statement late Friday regarding the Treasury’s 45Z comments issued Friday afternoon:  The U.S. Treasury today relea

Highlights Why did corn and beans crash and burn yesterday?   The Weekly Export Sales report issued yesterday morning was terrible as it always is Christmas week. It should never be a surprise, but poor sales Christmas week is always a disappointment.    The House of Representatives was scheduled to select a Speaker yesterday. The last time they tried to elect a Speaker, it took three weeks! Thankfully, after the CBOT closed, Mike Johnson, (R-La.) was re-elected to lead the H

Highlights The USDA released its November crush numbers yesterday after the close:  Soybean crush was 210 million bu., 10 million more than the same month a year ago. Canola crush was 211,013 tons, down from 219,843 tons a year ago. Corn crushed for all purposes was 514 million bu., up 1% from a year ago. Corn for ethanol crush was 465 million bu., up 2% from a year ago.   StoneX raised its estimate for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop 5.2 million mts to 171.4 million mts (USDA

Tidbits The grain markets will close at 12:05 PM CT this week Tuesday, December 24th. The markets will be closed all day on Wednesday, December 25th. They will open back up on Thursday at 8:30 AM CT, December 26th. The U.S. government pushed through a funding bill at the last minute, President Biden signed it on Saturday, putting off the next fight over the debt ceiling until March, when it will become a problem for President-elect Trump.   The bill included a one-year extens

Highlights Trump’s newly appointed counterterrorism adviser, Sebastian Gorka, says Trump plans to end the Ukraine war by threatening to flood Ukraine with military aid, making current U.S. support look like “peanuts.”    Andrey Sizov, the guru of Black Sea wheat market, reported yesterday afternoon that Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, is gradually running out of inventory. "Russian total on-farm stocks: Lowest in three years, but still above average. Southern regi

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 124,000 mts of corn to unknown.   Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his South American corn and soybean crop estimates unchanged from last month (in million mts):   Corn: Brazil 125 (USDA 127), Argentina 48 (USDA 51)  Soybeans: Brazil 165 (USDA 169), Argentina 57 (USDA 51)   Egypt purchased 290,000 mts of wheat this week: 120,000 mts Romania 120,000 mts Ukraine 50,000 mts Bulgaria   Chinese manufacturing purchasing manage

Highlights Wayne Bacon of Hammersmith Reports has been involved in the international grain trade for more than 60 years. His comment this week on corn: "Corn had a good week for export with large sales to Mexico and a new shipment loading to Tunisia in NOLA. I have not seen US corn sold to Tunisia in quite a while. The US Grains Council office in Tunis says that more US corn business is expected for Tunisia."   Tunisia  is in North Africa, a hop, skip, and a jump from the Bla

Tidbits Crude oil futures gapped a dollar lower and traded as much as $4.00 lower last evening on the relatively “peaceful” Saturday attack by Israel on Iran. Last evening was the lowest trade in December crude futures since 1 October.   India’s crude oil demand will increase 4% during the final quarter of 2024 amid their festival season that also coincides with increased agricultural activity after the monsoon season, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights, as gasoline a

Q&A: Trading Thursday, 24 October 2024:  "Good evening, I have a few questions.      Are there any calls for soybeans that look as good as the March call for corn?   Also, I assume you can sell these calls any time before the expiration date?   Do you guys recommend any type of app that you can buy/sell futures, calls, puts, etc? I would not mind using a broker, but we are not currently set up with a broker and I am not sure how to locate a trustworthy one. So, I thought mayb

Tidbits Yesterday’s weakness for corn and beans was a result of speculative profit-taking after four days of gains earlier in the week, options expiration, and merchandiser pre-hedging in the corn. The weakness in wheat made no sense at all.   Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of: 116,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China and 136,000 mts of old crop corn to Mexico   Since Monday, the US reported “flash” sales like the above notice totaled 1.347 million mts of beans (

Tidbits Asia markets opened today with an increasingly bullish global backdrop fueled by continued strength in U.S. stocks, but with local sentiment more circumspect due to the uncertainty surrounding China's deep-rooted economic problems, but China continues to address those problems.   The People's Bank of China is expected to cut its loan prime rates today as Beijing's latest move in a series of monetary, fiscal, and liquidity support measures to shore up the imploding pro

Tidbits Ukraine's President Zelensky made demands while speaking before the EU's European Council in Brussels. Zelensky said he wants to join NATO and, if Ukraine is not accepted, then he will have to resort to nuclear weapons. Zelensky sounds like he is getting more worried about Ukraine's situation.   The Biden Administration provided $425 million in aid to Ukraine earlier this week. From what we hear from people on the ground in Western North Carolina, that FEMA operation

Highlights Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of: 1,043,940 mts of old crop corn to Mexico 579,120 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 332,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 175,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown   November soybean futures gained 5½¢ on the January beans the past 8 trading sessions. Benson Quinn Commodities, which is owned by ADM, say crushers only have enough beans to keep operating for two weeks. Farmers are not selling beans with the 90¢ drop in f

Q&A: ENSO Eugene asked: "Last Tuesday, you guys reported this ENSO chart: Your comment says that 60 days below the -0.5 threshold forms the La Nina. Water temperature has been below the line at least since early July. However, NOAA says "La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance)". https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml   So, why is it not a La Nina event already but a chance for it?" Roger’s reply:

Highlights Several of our Eastern Corn Belt clients informed us yesterday afternoon and evening that the wind on the wet corn stalks really knocked a lot of corn down late Friday to Saturday morning. Bob told us the Case IH dealer in Urbana of Champaign County, Ohio sold two corn reels yesterday morning.       Soybean yields from about a dozen farms in northeast Illinois range from 25.4 to 65.1. Three in the 20's, one 39 bu, three in the 40's, one 53.7, and two in the 60's. T