Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Friday's key reversal on the soybeans (new contract high followed by a close lower than the previous day's low) was negated by yesterday's higher close. As a general rule, a lack of follow through on the next trading day is needed to confirm a technical trend change. Fuel & Fertilizer: Diesel prices are climbing fast, and farmers are feeling it in real time. U.S. diesel prices have surged 60% since the start of the war in Iran. With another 30¢ jump in just a week, th

Tidbits The market action yesterday was very disappointing, especially in wheat and corn, after the beating those two commodities took the previous two days. But, as our client Jeff pointed out, yesterday’s lows were above Thursday’s lows in the corn, beans, and both winter wheats. That is technically significant. Wheat sits 10¢ above the support level from the July peak. The 14 day Relative Strength Index as of the close yesterday: Dec Corn: 70.06, the high for the week was

Tidbits Brazil: Roraima is a small state in the far north of Brazil bordering Venezuela to the north and Guyana to the east. It is north of the Amazon River and a bit north of the Equator. Farmers plant corn and beans in March or April and harvest in September. El Niño brings drier weather to Roraima just as it does to Central Brazil where the majority of Brazil’s corn, beans, and cotton are grown. Early harvest has begun. Some producers are reporting the loss of entire crops

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Weather & Markets: Small rain squalls in Nebraska and Iowa popped up early Tuesday morning and turned corn, wheat, and beans futures from higher to lower. Once again, when it is July or August and raining in Iowa, corn and bean prices go down. If you have old or new crop soybeans not priced, do you know the Corn Belt is expected to have above normal temperatures and above

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Feedback: Some farmers in Central Minnesota (Morrison County) said they will start chopping corn Monday if they do not get rain this weekend. The U.S. GDP for the second quarter came in at 1.5% growth rate vs. 1.8% expected. Jobless claims were increased to 197,000 vs. 201,000 expected and below the recent average. The June Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) P

Tidbits The National Weather Service forecast issued last evening for the next two weeks sees above normal temperatures for most of the 48 states and below normal rainfall extending from the PNW to the Western Corn Belt. Over the weekend, wildfire outbreaks continue to rage in the PNW. Hundreds of thousands of acres have burned across Washington and Oregon alone. Wheat: The North Dakota wheat tour projected a 48 bushel spring wheat yield. USDA is at 58 bushels yield for the

Tidbits Yesterday's mid-day price slump on the CBOT was nothing more than the market taking some profit after several days of gains. The tariffs announcement probably contributed to that. All three commodities traded lower. Only wheat settled lower, but it had gained the most in recent days. Flash sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 126,000 mt of new crop soybeans to unknown. The Spring Wheat Tour on Day Two saw an average yield of 48.1 bushels per acre in northw

Tidbits The CBOT grains will not trade again until Monday evening after the markets close today. The energy, equities, and interest rate futures will open normal times on Sunday. Energy futures will quit trading at 1:30 PM Monday and interest rate and equity futures will halt trading at noon Central Time Monday. China’s peak U.S. agriculture import year of $38 billion was 2022. They bought just $8 billion worth of agriculture products in 2025. Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commo

Tidbits Mexico is building a land-bridge between its two oceans that is already partially working and nearing completed. It will not replace the Panama Canal, but it could carve out a meaningful niche in global trade, especially for North American supply chains. A major infrastructure project is designed to be a land-based alternative (often called a “dry canal”) to the Panama Canal. It is the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (CIIT), a multimodal rail-and

Tidbits Iran: President Trump sent Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner yesterday afternoon to Islamabad ‌for talks with Iran mediated by Pakistan on Saturday. The Trump administration reported it has seen "some progress" from the Iranian side in the last couple of days. Vice ‌President ⁠JD Vance is ready to travel to Pakistan to join talks if they prove successful. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was expected in Islamabad last evening to discuss proposals for restarting p

Tidbits The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is really a blockade of Iranian ports, not the strait. No ships are allowed to enter or leave an Iranian port, but the U.S. says the strait is open and Iran says the strait is closed. The reality is insurance companies are limiting shipping through the strait. On Sunday, President Trump issued the following statement: "Today, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as a

Tidbits Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Iran said it was responding to a continued U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, calling it a violation of their ceasefire, while Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran's navy ‌was ready to inflict "new bitter defeats" on its enemies. At least two Indian flagged vessels carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil were hit while trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Iranian State media quoted the Supreme National

Tidbits Iran War: President Trump said Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely. Bloomberg reported Iran will not receive any frozen funds from the U.S. Details include: Trump says that a deal to end the war between the US/Israel and Iran is now "mostly complete" Talks over a lasting agreement will "probably" be held this weekend and "most main points are finalized" Trump denied that the moratorium on Iran’s nuclear program would expire after 20 years Fe

Tidbits Planting Feedback: Jeff in Minnesota sent us this information yesterday morning: “Friend of mine around Charleston (far southeast) Missouri called last night. Record heat temps along with dry soils. Planting corn 2.5” deep to get in moisture. And he is a no till guy. He said guys around there planted all their corn in 4 days.” Brazilian agency CONAB estimated yesterday total corn production 1.3 million higher, at 139.6 million mts, but below last year’s 141.2 million.

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 126,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown and 100,000 mts of old crop soybean meal to Italy. Strait of Hormuz: There is a very slight chance of a long term solution to the Iran War will come from Islamabad, Pakistan, the site of the first face-to-face talks between U.S. and Iranian people which is under way this morning. Vice President JD Vance is leading the U.S. delegation. Before a long-term deal can b

Tidbits Iran: U.S. officials confirmed Friday morning that an American aircraft, probably an F-15E Strike Eagle, was shot down by Iranian forces. One of the two crewmen was recovered and the search continues for the second crew member. A second aircraft, an A-10 Warthog, was shot yesterday over the Persian Gulf, but the pilot was able to reach Kuwait to bail out and was recovered. A major highway bridge in Tehran was destroyed by U.S. military aircraft on Friday. Late y

Tidbits Iran: President Trump announced in a post yesterday that he was extending the deadline for a deal with Iran until 8 PM Eastern Time on 6 April at the request of the Iranian Government because talks are ongoing and going very well, despite erroneous statements to the contrary. Some sources are saying the chances of success in achieving a ceasefire remain low, as Iran and the United States are making demands that are unacceptable to each other. China: President Trump an

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 125,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Fed Reserve: Yesterday, President Trump submitted his nomination of the former Fed governor, Kevin Warsh, to the Senate as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve to replace Jerome Powell in May. Cattle & Hogs: The American Rancher Alliance reported yesterday that three-day-old bull calves are now selling for $2,200. That is quite a testament to the confidence some p

Tidbits Logistics, Energy & Fertilizer: At 2:37 PM ET yesterday, President Trump ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for all maritime trade traveling through the Persian Gulf. The U.S. is preparing military measures to safeguard ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Energy contracts trimmed gains when that news came out early afternoon. In addition to 20% of the world’s crude oil, more than 30% of the world’s fe

Tidbits Next Tuesday, February 10, the USDA will release its S&D (WASDE) report. Reuters released its survey of analysts ahead of the report, showing an average 2025/26 carryout estimates: Corn - 2.227 billion bushels (same as in January S&D) Soybean - 347 million bushel (350 mil in January) Wheat - 918 million bushels (926 mil in January) Yesterday’s soybean trade volume reached roughly 930,000 contracts, marking a new all‑time record. U.S. net farm income would fall 0.7% to